We will finish up our comparison of the American League Central position players by tackling two positions in one column.  (Before everyone, including myself loses interest!)

Following the format of the previous columns, let's dive right in, starting in center field.

If these numbers are not discouraging enough, keep in mind that Chicago acquired Alex Rios to fill their center field void.   Cleveland got only 92 games in center field out of an injured Grady Sizemore and Detroit's Curtis Granderson had an off year.

Losing Crisp to injury truly did hurt the Royals, particularly defensively as the above chart shows.  It only gets worse as we move on to right field.

After first base and designated hitter, is there a position with a bigger premium on slugging than right field?   Given that, can we put to bed the worries about David DeJesus not having the bat to carry left field?  At least until SOMETHING is done in right?

The Central is not a division blessed with great fielders at this position.  Dye is years removed from the guy who patrolled right way back when for the Royals:  having posted a UZR/150 the three years prior to 2009 of -21.4, -21.5 and -21.5.  As for Teahen, it is noteworthy that in 2007 his rating was a +6.7.  It slipped to -9.6 in 2008 and then all the way (in an admittedly small sample) to -23.8 in 2009.

As bad as Jose Guillen was defensively, the Royals real problem in right field is at the plate.   We look at Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop as a liability at the plate, we wonder who will man center in 2010 and hope beyond all hope that Mike Jacobs does not come back for another breeze making mission at DH, but by far the largest offensive deficit on the diamond was in right field.

Solution

Something needs to be done and it needs to be done from outside the organization.   Jordan Parraz is a year removed from being traded for Tyler Lumsden and David Lough is simply a year away and they represent by far the most hopeful outfield prospects on the immediate horizon.

Now, what 'it' is is a matter for further discussion and my ideas will have to wait until we finish up this comparison with a review of the pitching staffs.

David DeJesus played more games in left field in 2009 than any other player in the division.  In fact, David's 138 games at the position made him the only player among the five Central division members to exceed 100 games played.   Through it all, DeJesus was criticized for smiling too much, being 'only average' on a team full of below average players, and generally have the audacity to not be Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon.

Be that as it may, let's check the offensive numbers each team generated from the left field position:

Personally, David DeJesus put up a line of .281/.347/.434./781 with 79 runs created, which illustrates just how awful the left fielders were for the 24 games he did not play.

Cleveland started ten different players in left, while Detroit started seven.   Minnesota used Jason Kubel, Dennard Span and Delmon Young at the position, while most of the time in Chicago was split between Carlos Quentin and Scott Podsednik:  two of the most different players to ever share a position.

Here is how the major players stack up defensively:

 As one of our commenters pointed out a few columns ago, there is some skepticism with regard to Ultimate Zone Ratings, but I think they are at least accurate enough for a quick view of fielding capability.   My personal favorite is John Dewan's plus/minus system, but UZR/150 is what I started this series with so I'm sticking with it for a few more columns.

Visually, DeJesus passed the 'eye test' in left field, with the exception of a couple of boneheaded plays during the season (a trait that is sadly not unique to the Royals), and certainly seemed to a go from a 'minus' defender in center  to a 'plus' defender in left.

Solution

Does he have the power you would ideally like from a corner outfielder?   Probably not, although his extra base ability is at worst average.   Does he have that elite level on-base ability?  Again, no, but a .347 on-base percentage in a somewhat down year personally while batting in an order full of hackers is not horrible at all.

The only real problem with David DeJesus is that he is a solid, everyday player on a team that currently has no stars.  As such, instead of comfortably settling in as maybe the fourth or fifth best hitter in the lineup he has, until the emergence of Billy Butler, been viewed as the team's best hitter.

That is not David DeJesus' fault, nor is it a reason to ship him off.   Frankly, the trade value of DeJesus does not equal the worth he currently carries with Kansas City.    Right now, he is just one of three (Butler and Callaspo being the other two) position players on the roster that can viewed as true everyday major leaguers.  

He is good, but not so good that other teams will give up the requisite booty to make a trade worthwhile.  While DeJesus has a team friendly contract, he is what he is and that is both a positive and a negative.

What David DeJesus is, without question, is the Royals' left fielder in 2010.   Write it down, move on and stop worrying about how much he smiles.

Perhaps I am jaded or just overly focused on the Royals to the exclusion of all other teams.    Maybe I simply cannot forgive Mark Teahen for teasing us with that sensational summer of 2006 - the likes of which he has never come close to since.    That Alex Gordon has yet to become a superstar or even average for that matter, has not helped my perspective anyway.

Whatever the reason, as I began my comparision of the American League Central third basemen, I did not expect the offensive production numbers to look like this:

That's right, 99 games of Mark Teahen, 48 of Alex Gordon and 11 of Alex Callaspo (plus a smattering of others) contributed to the Royals leading the division in all five offensive categories in the table above.  That may be more of an indictment of the Central's third sackers than a plus for the Royals.

Now for defense:

I have never been a fan of Teahen's defense at the hot corner - although it visually improved after his shoulder surgery at the end of 2006.   For the record his UZR/150 in 2005 was -17.6, 2006 +0.4, 2008 (just 19 games) -23.9.  Hence, no real surprise about his negative rating once more in 2009.

After posting a nice +7.9 in his rookie season, Gordon regressed to -3.6 in 2008 and posted virtually the same mark this past season.

As for Callaspo, I included him as there has been some rumblings about the Royals moving Callaspo to third, Gordon to first, Butler to DH and someone (Aviles/FA) to second.   Obviously eleven games is not a big enough sample to put much stock in that ranking and such a move ignores the fact that Alberto Callaspo is a giant space cadet on defense (physical shortcomings aside).   Still, I included Alberto because I think such a move might be under actual consideration.

If the Twins resign Joe Crede AND he stays healthy, he is an obvious defensive plus on the diamond and certainly can hit enough to keep up with the current production within the division.   Ditto for Brandon Inge in Detroit.

The guy who could blow the curve is Chicago's Gordon Beckham, who posted an .808 OPS this season and is likely to improve his defensive rating as he gains experience at third.

Solution

2009 was supposed to be Alex Gordon's breakout season only to see him derailed by injuries and somewhat rushed (in my opinion) rehabilitation and then a string of simply bad baseball upon his return.   From the Royals' perspective, you have to just write 2009 off as a non-event and treat 2010 as Alex's true third season.

As an organization, they cannot give up on Gordon without giving him one more healthy year to prove he can at least partially attain the immense potential most saw when he was drafted second overall back in 2005.   They would be selling low to try and trade him and a position change would introduce one more variable into an already murky equation.

For at least the first half of 2010, the Royals need to put Gordon at third base, bat him sixth or seventh and see what happens.   Come July, if Aviles is healthy and productive and Gordon still a negative in the field, then they could entertain moving Callaspo (or Aviles for that matter) to third and Gordon over to first.

There is nothing exciting about the 'one more year' tactic, but it is the right move for the Royals at this position.

When we began our position by position comparison of the Royals versus the rest of the American League Central, some of you may have been surprised by how well the catchers matched up.    You might have been a little disappointed to see that Billy Butler was only in the middle of the pack at first and perhaps a little amazed that, despite all his defensive shortcomings, one could make a case that Alberto Callaspo was the best second baseman in the division.

Sadly, there are no pleasant suprises in store for today's review, but then you already knew that, didn't you?

At the start of 2009, there was almost uniform agreement that Mike Aviles would certainly regress from his fantastic 2008 rookie season.   Still most of us thought that, regression aside, he would still be an asset for the club at shortstop.    As we are all painfully aware, that did not happen.

After playing for the Puerto Rican team in the WBC, Aviles tried to play through an injury (one he did not disclose to the Royals) and was simply awful for the first month of the season.   After trying the standard Royals' give-it-some-rest-and-see treatment, Mike eventually landed on the disabled list with season ending Tommy John surgery.

Kansas City turned to Tony Pena Jr. and Willie Bloomquist and eventually panicked their way into trading for Yuniesky Betancourt.  As an aside, my wife and I attended two games in August at Safeco Field in Seattle.   Wearing our Royals' jerseys, we were thanked by not one, not two, but three different fans for taking Betancourt off their hands.

The injured Aviles-Pena Jr.-Bloomquist-Betancourt monster was as bad as it sounds....on both sides of the ball.

Offense - weighted Runs Created (Shortstops)

KCR: 37

CHI: 80

CLE: 91

DET: 53

MIN: 69

Defense - Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games

Orlando Cabrera, who the Twins acquired in mid-season, was coming off a +13.1 UZR/150 in 2008, so I'm not sure what happened to him defensively.  However, he did hit .289/.313/.430 for Minnesota, while Betancourt was a pathetic .240/.269/.370 for the Royals with even worse defense. 

Prior to Cabrera's acquisition, the Twins used Nick Punto (+3.1) and Brendan Harris (-4.7) at shortstop.   Both of them were far better in the field than the Royals' stopgap, Willie Bloomquist, who posted a -12.7 rating.

When comparing to Detroit, the Royals got 26 more points of OPS out of Betancourt than the Tiger got out of Adam Everett, but that is nowhere near enough pop (if you can even call it that) to make up for the huge defensive disparity between the two.

Chicago's Alexei Ramirez, who had the unique distinction of hitting more home runs than doubles (15 to 14), gave the White Sox good production with above average defense, while Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera was enough of an offensive plus (.308./361/.438) to outweigh below average defense.   Given that Cabrera is four years younger than Betancourt, I don't like Kansas City's odds of making up any ground here.

Solution

We could go fantasy world here and make one up, but let's face facts:  the Royals have Betancourt under contract for two more years and this is a trade that Dayton Moore has hung his hat on.   There has been some lip service out of the organization about Betancourt and Aviles competing for the spot next spring, but we should all know better.

Yuniesky Betancourt will be the starting shortstop for the Kansas City Royals in 2010 and will likely be the weakest at his position in the division (if not all of baseball).   We can concoct all sorts of scenarios to make ourselves feel better, but the prior sentence is what will actually happen.

The solution?  Get better at other positions because the Royals are stuck with this one.

I admit, I’m kind of at a loss here.

The playoffs resume tonight, we’re a month or so from when free agency kicks into gear, about six weeks from the winter meetings and four months from camp.  In other words, there’s not much going on. 

When the Royals limped to the finish line a couple of weeks ago, I actually welcomed the end of the season.  That’s how brutal this year was.  And now that we’ve gone about 10 days without Royals baseball, somehow I find myself missing the games. 

I think I’m mentally ill.

-- The Arizona Fall League is underway and several Royals have seen action for the Surprise Rafters.  (What’s a Rafter?  Someone who’s on a raft?  Do they really have rafters in the middle of Arizona?)  Mike Moustakas went 1-4 with an RBI double in his only action, while Jeff Bianchi is 1-9.

ESPN’s Keith Law is in Arizona and is covering the league.  Follow him on Twitter for updates, such as this one from yesterday:

Jeff Bianchi is swinging and missing at fringy stuff like it's 95 with movement. #royals

No word if this Tweet got Law banned from the Royals facility in Surprise.

--  Texas batting coach Rudy Jaramillo decided to decline the Rangers offer of a new contract, making him a coaching free agent.  He’s been with Texas for 15 years.  And get this… He’s used Scott Boras as representation before.  Priceless.

Anyway, I’m aware of Jaramillo’s rock star status as a hitting coach, although some of the luster has worn off.  Last year, the Rangers ranked 12th in OBP and some people weren't happy with a particularly hacktastic approach of certain Ranger hitters.  Word is, the Cubs, Astros and Mets are all interested.  Obviously, some Royals fans think he’d be just perfect here in KC, which ignores the fact the Royals have already announced their staff for 2010.

--  The Royals retained three possible minor league free agents on Wednesday.  Scott Thorman, Kelvin Villa and Carlos Rivas will return to the organization next summer.  My favorite quote from the Dutton notebook about the three:

All three are former Atlanta prospects.

Of course, they are.

Thorman is a first baseman who appeared in 175 games for the Braves in 2006 and 2007 and hit .222/.260/.407.  He hit .297/.346/.496 with 19 home runs in Omaha after he was released from the Ranger organization.  He'll turn 28 in January.

Villa pitched in relief for Wilmington and posted a 3.38 ERA in 77 innings.  He had 67 strikeouts and 22 walks, but allowed 91 hits.  He'll be 24 in December.

Rivas was picked up by the Royals after a rough start (7.52 ERA in 26 innings in A-ball for the Braves) and did well pitching exclusively out of the bullpen.  He had a 1.74 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 20 innings.

All three were with the Braves when Moore was Director of Player Personnel.

--  Who do you like in the Playoffs?  I have the Dodgers in five games in the NLCS and the Angels in six. Although I would enjoy a Philadelphia-New York World Series, just because of the human suffering potential.  Baseball in the Northeast in November?  Bud Selig is genius.

Installment three of our comparison, position by position, of the Kansas City Royals versus the other AL Central clubs focuses on second base.

Finally given regular playing time, Alberto Callaspo responded with a fine season at the plate.   Many of us expected Callaspo to hit for average (he did) and figured he would post a decent on base percentage (again, he did), but I am not sure anyone expected Alberto to hit sixty extra base hits.   Frankly, 41 doubles, 8 triples and 11 home runs is awfully good production from a middle infielder...on any team.

So, how does that line stack up against the rest of the division?   Let's take a look at the positional totals:

Callaspo, who is responsible for 142 of the Royals' games at second and put up a personal line of .300/.356/.457/.813, was easily the best offensive player at the position in the division.   So, one might ask just why are Royals' fans not in love with this guy?   Let's take a look at the defensive side of things:

Alberto Callaspo is a bad defensive player.   If the numbers above do not convince you, then watching him play the position or listening to Frank White describe Alberto Callaspo playing the position will.   The shortcomings of Callaspo's play in the field is not limited to physical errors, but also include poor positioning, poor decision making and curious routes to balls.

HOWEVER, one look at the chart tells you that every other team in the AL Central has some issues at second base, too.   Detroit is likely to jettison the steady Polanco and go with a rookie at second in 2010 and the only other plus fielder in the division, Nick Punto, is possibly the worst offensive player in the game now that Tony Pena Jr. is a pitcher.

Given that, one could make an argument that in a division full of bad (albeit mostly young) fielders, the Royals' guy hits the best.   As such, the organization might be wise to focus their rebuilding efforts elsewhere, at least for now.   In looking at the position in a vacuum, that logic makes perfect sense.

Second base, however, is not played in a vacuum (few things are, it seems).  As we discussed on Monday, the Royals also have the worst fielding first baseman in the division, which makes Callaspo's defensive issues much more critical.    Can they afford to go through 2010 with Butler and Callaspo on the right side of their infield?

Summary

The answer, in my opinion, to the previous question is no.  

While both Butler and Callaspo's bats certainly justify everyday duty, they also represent probably the two most productive bats in the lineup.    If the Royals had Joe Mauer behind the plate, if Alex Gordon was producing like Evan Longoria and they had Raul Ibanez instead of Jose Guillen in the outfield, they might be able to carry bad defense at both first and second base.  

Kansas City, however, never had a shot a Mauer and did not draft Matt Wieters.    They offered Raul Ibanez a two year deal when all he wanted was three and have watched him smack the ball all over creation for the six years since (yes, I have issues with letting things go).    Plus, as we enter year four of the Alex Gordon experience, I find myself wondering less about how good he might become and more about what it might have been like to draft Troy Tulowitzki instead.

In a perfect world, Mike Aviles is able to come back from injury,  be ready to play second base in 2010 AND hit like he did in 2008.   Then you could slide Callaspo into the designated hitter position, enjoy at least competent defense on the right side of the infield and, in theory, improve your ball club both offensively and defensively.  

Is that a realistic probability?   Is it truly the right move?

To be honest, I am not ready to say yes or no to either question.   It is, however, something worth considering as we continue on with our positional comparisons and eventually to an overall summary.

After Zack Greinke’s contract extension last winter, it’s only natural that we will look to the front office with the expectation that they’ll do the same with Billy Butler.  However, if you are counting on them to achieve that this winter, you’re going to be disappointed.

There are a few of reasons for this.  Let’s take a look.

Timing

Butler has just over two years of MLB service time.  He won’t qualify for arbitration as a “Super 2” so he’ll have to wait another year before he can add another zero onto the back of his paycheck. 

Because he’s under club control for next year, the Royals are really in no hurry to sign him to an extension.  Realistically, the Royals have his rights for another four years.  Of course, if the Royals do decide - at any point - they would like to extend him, they’ll do it sooner rather than later.  But since he’ll earn around $500,000 next year, there’s no reason to give him a bump in this year’s salary just to get him in the fold long-term.

That leads me to the second reason.

Budget

From my post last Thursday, the Royals - as things currently stand - have absolutely no margin to add payroll of any sort.  Even if it’s as small as an additional $200,000.  For the Royals this winter, every dollar counts.

History

Third year players rarely get the luxury of long-term deals.  Those are saved for high draft picks and free agents.

Think about it.  When was the last time a player with less than three years of service time (meaning he had yet to qualify for arbitration) was given a contract extension?  The Royals actually have done this before - with David DeJesus - but many teams are content with addressing the situation once a player becomes arbitration eligible.

Those are the reasons the Royals probably won’t be locking Butler up this winter.  I’m not saying those are valid reasons… I’m saying those are the Royals reasons.

Long term - if the Royals think Butler would be an asset to this team for the next several years - it probably makes sense for them to sign Butler to a contract extension.  Plus, the sooner they can accomplish this, the better it will be for the team.  Just look at the DeJesus contract extension as an example.  The Royals bought out his arbitration years for a sum of around $8 million.  That was a steal for the Royals.  Not that DeJesus should be complaining.  That’s the tradeoff in the extension dance - the player sacrifices some future potential earnings for the security of a long term deal.  It seems fair to me.

This summer, we all saw what Butler was capable of with the bat.  Not many 23 year old players accomplished what Butler accomplished this summer.  51 doubles?  A slash line of .301/.362/.492?  Barring injury, the kid is only going to get better.  The longer the Royals wait, the higher his price tag.  It would behoove the Royals to act quickly.  However, the Royals under Dayton Moore strike me as an organization that wants to be sure with their own players before they commit big dollars.  (I wish they did this with bad players from other teams.)  There’s nothing wrong with this strategy because, as I said, Butler isn’t in the position to break the bank.  Yet. 

It’s a gamble teams play all the time.  They obviously want their young players to improve, but it comes at a cost (financially speaking) to the club.  If Butler is seeking a five-year deal valued at $20 million this winter, that could easily turn into a four-year, $25 million deal next winter if he continues to improve. 

If I had to guess, I would think the Royals decide not to extend Butler this winter.  Part of me believes they want to see how the kid handles success.  I can’t say that I blame them for that.  Butler’s maturity has always been suspect, but last year he really proved something when he came into camp in good shape and had clearly been working on all aspects of his game.  He had something to prove, and he knew it. 

Now that he has a really solid season under his belt, I wonder if he’ll put in the same amount of work this winter.  I hope so.  I know the Royals hope so too, but I think they fear he won’t.

So while it may cost the Royals a few more dollars in the long term, I think they’re going to take the cautious approach and see how 2010 turns out for Butler before they make a commitment.

Today, we continue on our quest to compare the Kansas City Royals on a position by position basis to their American League Central counterparts.  

Our last post revealed that while the Royals have some issues behind the plate, they actually are not much worse and, in fact, often times better at the catching position than most of the division with the obvious exclusion of Joe Mauer and the Minnesota Twins.  Let's see how they stack up at first base.

The Royals saw Billy Butler emerge as a legitimate offensive force in the second half of 2009, so it would be reasonable to expect Kansas City's offensive numbers at this position to grow.   Still, it is important to keep in mind that this is a division with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau, so Butler has some stiff competition to keep up with.   That said, with Billy just 23 years old and already in the middle of the division pack, there is certainly reason for optimism.  

Of course, first base also includes something called defense:

RZR = Revised Zone Rating (courtesy Hardball Times)

UZR/150 = Runs above or below average over 150 games (courtesy Fangraphs)

I did not include anyone from Cleveland as they played Ryan Garko (traded) at first for 47 games, Victor Martinez (traded) for 44 games and Andy Marte (likely non-tender) for 43 more.

As you can see, Butler has a ways to go defensively at first base, although Dayton Moore should be comforted by the fact that Butler did lead the division in double plays started (11).   (Sarcasm intended) 

While the title refers to first base, I thought this was also the most relevant place to compare the designated hitter position, too.  It is noteworthy that with the trade of Jim Thome, no team employs a truly full-time DH in the division.   The Royals' Mike Jacobs actually logged more games at the position (102) than any other player in the AL Central.   As you might imagine, given that fact, the Royals have something of an offensive deficit as a result.

YIKES!   Is there anybody out there that wants to tender Mike Jacobs a contract?

The next worst team, Detroit, pretty much used the designated hitter spot as a rotating, part-time position (Marcus Thames started there for 50 games, Carlos Guillen for 33 and Aubrey Huff for 28)and the numbers reflect that.  On the other end of the spectrum, the three Twins with the most appearances at DH were Jason Kubel (80), Justin Morneau (12) and Joe Mauer (28), all three of whom were basically full-timers at other positions.

Frankly, no one in the division should be overjoyed about the runs created by the only position in baseball that does not require a glove, but the Royals were particularly woeful.  

Summary

If Billy Butler was thirty-two instead of twenty-three, the solution would seem obvious:  move Butler to designated hitter, where his bat would give the Royals the most potent DH in the division and go find a decent offensive first baseman who can field.   However, just one season into being a full-time major league first baseman, one almost has to give Butler a chance to become at least average in the field.  Besides, on a team that is defensively challenged in so many areas, fixing the defense at first base has to be a pretty low priority.

The solution?  Well, it is not named Mike Jacobs.  

Given the current contract situation, it might temporarily be Jose Guillen.   As much as I am tempted to just dump him for anything (surely we could get Tyler Lumsden back in return - see:  ANYTHING!), Jose is likely to net more in a trade come next July.   At that point, you can hope a half-season of DH work has put at least a little pop back in his bat and with just a half-season left on his contract, some desperate fringe contender might give up a couple of minor leaguers (not real prospects, but something).

My long-term answer involves another current Royal, but we will save that until after we have reviewed all the positions.

Things figure to be slow for the next several weeks for the Royals.  Transactions never happen during the post-season. 

Like the Royals front office staff gathering in Arizona to create a road map for this winter, I figured now was an ideal time to outline the team’s financial commitment for 2010.  Seeing where the Royals are in a fiscal sense, help us realize the potential for what they can do with roster in the months ahead.

Unlike last winter, when there was plenty of talk about the upcoming payroll, the Royals have been silent on their budget situation.  In 2009, the Royals had an Opening Day payroll of $70.5 million.  I’m thinking the team will either stand pat and not increase the budget, or they’ll offer a modest - in the $5 million range - increase.  Until we hear otherwise, let’s assume the budget will be set at a nice, round $75 million.

With that in mind, let’s move forward.

Here’s a chart detailing all of the Royals known contracts for next season.  The numbers come from Cot’s.

The numbers for Crisp and Olivo represent the buyouts on options the club holds.  I’m sure the Royals would love to bring Crisp back, but with his injury and the fact it’s possible he won’t be ready to play until next May, there’s no way the Royals pop for $8 million for the center fielder.  If the Royals and Olivo agree to his mutual option, that adds $3.3 million to the total.  If someone forced me to make a prediction, I’d say that the Royals are interested in bringing him back at that price, but Olivo may decline his option and test the market where he could potentially make more money.

Now, let’s look at the Royals who are eligible for arbitration, along with their estimated contract for next year.

Before we go further, a note about my estimates:  These are estimates.  If you disagree, leave a note in the comments.  I came up with these numbers based on their contracts last season and any comparable arbitration cases I could find.  For example, Mike Jacobs earned $3.25 million as a first year, arbitration eligible player last year.  Alex Gordon is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and sadly, has worse career offensive numbers than Jacobs at similar points in their careers.  Add in the injury and I think he’s due less money.

Also, at this point it has to be noted that there are some players who won’t be tendered contracts.  If that’s the case, they become free agents.  John Buck, Mike Jacobs, John Bale and Doug Waechter are the names that jump out from this list as potential non-tenders.  Obviously, the $25 million is an estimate.  Some guys on this list will earn less, some will earn more and others may be traded or non-tendered.  This is a snapshot of where this team is right now.

Assuming the Royals bring everyone back - and past evidence (Jimmy Gobble, Ross Gload) says they will - the Royals will commit around $75 million for 20 players.

Of course, a full roster is 25 players and I have yet to mention Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena, Luke Hochevar and Jamey Wright. 

The Royals control the contracts of Butler, Maier and Pena.  Each of them will earn in the neighborhood of $500,000.  Yes, Butler is better than the other two, but that’s the system the players agreed to when they signed the collective bargaining agreement.  Butler will make his money eventually.

Callaspo could qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two.”  If he does, add another $2 million to the payroll.  If he doesn’t and the Royals renew his contract, figure him for around $500,000. 

Hochevar’s initial contract has expired, but he’s not eligible for arbitration.  He earned roughly $1.3 million last year but under the collective bargaining agreement, the Royals can slash his salary by 20%.  Wage cuts are something that happened 30 years ago, so even though Hochevar largely stunk up the joint, I doubt the Royals decrease his paycheck.  However, he’s not getting a raise, either. 

So for the guys not eligible for arbitration, the Royals will commit around $4 million. 

Here’s how everything totals up:

The Royals haven’t made a trade or a signing and already they’re $5 million over my estimated budget.  Hell, the best case budget scenario has to be $80 million, doesn’t it?  I just can’t see this team popping the wallets open any wider.

When Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman try to tell you that injuries were the reason the team lost 97 games in 2009, it’s because they have to tell you that.  The truth is, this team is fiscally hamstrung by a series of rotten deals and they’re not in a position to do anything of relevance this winter.  No free agent signings, no trades where they add payroll… Nothing.  The injuries of 2009 are an excuse for when they stand pat.

If you’re looking for fireworks this winter, you’ll have to find another team.

Yesterday, Craig began to examine the Royals' roster with an eye towards which players should be brought back for 2010 and which should simply be let go.    His review of the catching situation concluded that John Buck should be non-tendered, while Miguel Olivo's mutual option should be picked up and Brayan Pena retained to be his backup.  That is a conclusion that I also agree with.

While such a move seems to make sense from a contractural/monetary point of view, where does that leave the ballclub in relation to hopes of contending?  

Today, I will examine the Royals versus their Central Division comrades on a position by position basis in an attempt to determine just how close...or how far, this team is from truly contending in the division.   Of course, we will start with the catchers.

Obviously, Minnesota enjoys a huge advantage over the rest of the division as long as they have Joe Mauer catching for them.   As an aside, given the premium position he playss, is Joe Mauer the best player in baseball right now?

After the Twins, however, the Royals' catchers stack up fairly well against the rest of the division, especially with the departures of Victor Martinez from Cleveland and Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers.    Let's take a look at a few more offensive numbers:

Again, after Mauer and the Twins, the Royals catching trioka created more runs than anyone else in the division.   Yes, Olivo-Buck-Pena struck out at a tremendous rate and walked little, but they made up for it (at least partially) by showing more power than anyone that was not born and playing in Minnesota.

Catching is not all offense.  In fact, it is probably the least offensively important position on the diamond.   While the above offensive numbers are for every player that put on the tools of ignorance for a given team in 2009 (and none of the games, by the way, where they played a different position), the defensive statistics below are for just the players who finished the season with a team and are likely to be contributors for that same team next year.

A quick look at the numbers reveal that both Miguel Olivo and Brayan Pena (albeit in limited duty) have some serious issues when it comes to blocking pitches.  

Next to the White Sox, the trio of Royals' catchers were the poorest at throwing out potential basestealers, although not by a dramatic amount.   Still, coupled with the very high wild pitches-passed balls per game marks, Kansas City enjoyed less than stellar defense behind the plate in 2009.

The Conclusion

If the Royals had a slew of dynamic offensive forces in their lineup, then they could afford to dump Olivo and Buck and go out and sign an offensively challenged catcher with a great defensive reputation.   However, we know that Kansas City does not enjoy such a luxury.  Additionally, the options in the off-season are limited, both by the free agent crop and by the financial situation of the organization.

It would be nice to have seen Brayan Pena catch eighty games this year and be able to make an educated guess as to whether he can improve enough behind the plate to be an everyday catcher, but that window of opportunity came and went.

In the end, the Royals can at least hang their hats on the fact that outside of Minnesota, no other team is particularly strong at catcher either.   In that respect, one can make the case that other areas might need more attention this off-season as Kansas City tries to get back into the American League Central conversation.