That headline is pretty bland, because this is a pretty bland move for the Royals.    In fact, it kind of reeks of an Allard Baird like signing:   Dayton Moore did not like his catching situation as a combination of money and glaring weaknesses made Miguel Olivo and John Buck unpalatable, so Dayton Moore headed to the Winter Meetings needing a catcher and by God he was going to come home with one.

Ladies and gentlemen:  the Jason Kendall era begins.

Kendall brings a ton of experience (1872 starts behind the plate) and a career line that looks pretty good: .290/.369/.383.  He has six seasons on his resume where Kendall posted an on-base percentage above .390 and has more career walks (684) than strikeouts (641).   Even better, his two year salary checks in several million lower than what John Buck would have received going through arbitration.

Problem is, the player I described in the above paragraph is not the player the Royals just signed.   Kendall's on-base percentages the last three seasons are a very Buck/Olivo like .301, .327, .331.   Okay, that's an exaggeration.   Miguel and John seldom posted any percentage stats that began with a '3', but when you factor in Kendall's complete lack of power, the offensive output Royals' fans can expect from their catchers in 2010 will pale in comparison to what they kind of sort of enjoyed in 2009.

Of course, the company line this morning is the defensive prowess, pitcher handling, young catcher mentoring skills that Jason Kendall brings to the table.  Handling a pitching staff and calling a game are certainly the two baseball skills hardest for fans and statheads alike to quantify.   It would be interesting to get some comments from A's and Brewers' fans with regard to their view of Kendall's abilities, but given Jason's experience and pedigree, I'm willing to give him a thumbs up in this area for now.

Defensively, Kendall threw out 20% of would be base stealers in 2009, 43% in 2008 and just, gulp, 15% in 2007.   In 410 games behind the plate the last three seasons, Jason did commit (is that the right term?) just 13 passed balls.  By contrast, Miguel Olivo committed 10 passed balls in 97 games last season.

Maybe Kendall's biggest strength is that he simply shows up.   In 14 big league seasons, Jason has started 130 or more games behind the plate 12 times.   If you have signed a veteran catcher to handle your staff, then you might as well have him back there everyday.

Bottom line, you can expect a John Buck non-tender this morning, because Dayton Moore got his catcher (Kelly Shoppach and Dioner Navarro be damned).   It is not a horrible move simply because the money is almost low enough to be irrelevant (at least in baseball terms) and the Royals are, after all, only replacing John Buck and Miguel Olivo.   Most of us were simply hoping for something more, something that would give us some hope that the Royals were actually building something.   That move may yet come.

For today, the Royals signed Jason Kendall.....yawn.

The Royals made a pair of moves this morning, releasing Mike Jacobs and John Bale prior to the Rule 5 draft.  We know about the level of suckitude (and in Bale's case - the injuries) involved, so there's no point in a rehash.  The Jacobs deal was a huge bust, so credit to the Royals for realizing that and cutting their losses.

With the 40-man roster at 38 players, the Royals were able to select LHP Edgar Osuna from the... Wait for it...

Atlanta Braves!

Osuna is a soft throwing lefty who features a slooooow curve and decent change.  In 349 career minor league innings, he's struck out 324, walked 78 and posted a 3.37 ERA.  He's pitched as both a starter and reliever.  Last year, he reached double-A for the first time and threw 77 innings with 49 strikeouts, 21 walks and a 3.72 ERA.

Obviously, he'll come out of the bullpen for the Royals.

And now the Royals 40-man roster stands at 39, so there's room for the club to add a rotten catcher on a multi-year deal.

I’m not exactly a scholar on the history of baseball’s winter meetings, but this year’s edition seems kind of sleepy.  If the best baseball can do is a Curtis Granderson trade (to the Yankees!) and a Randy Wolf signing, that’s not going to capture anyone’s attention.  (Maybe the Chone Figgins deal would have carried a little oomph, but we all knew about it last week.)

The Royal rumors especially have been absolutely depressing.  Unless you get excited debating the merits of catchers who suck.

At least Trey Hillman was around.  He held court with the media and shared some of his views on the upcoming season.  The Royals haven’t changed much of anything since the end of last season, but it’s still interesting to get the head man’s take of how he would use his current roster.

Hillman on Butler:

"I’m not going to say Billy is going to be the American League Gold Glove winner at first base, but I’m hopeful you’ll look out there at the All-Star break and say, `You know what? I don’t even think about him being out there at first base anymore.”

I think I'm already at that point.  Butler is the first baseman.  As it should be.  Good. 

Hillman on the situation at second base:
"It’s difficult to put a .300 hitter (Alberto Callaspo) with his run production (on the bench). Getz fits best at (defensively) second."

I think the Royals have decided to focus almost entirely on defense this winter.  That’s a good thing.  But Hillman has a point. On a team as offensively weak as the Royals, you absolutely cannot remove Callaspo’s bat.  As brutal as he was with the glove at second, I’m not sure you want him patrolling a corner outfield spot.  I think he needs to start the year as the DH.

Getz doesn’t really do anything for me, but look at it this way - Getz should be better than any Royal DH was last year.  And he’s a better glove at second.  Don’t get me wrong.  He’s probably an average to below average fielder and his bat is awful.  But removing Callaspo from the field and having Getz in the lineup instead of some of the crap DHs the Royals used last year, this team actually improves.

Sad.

Hillman on shortstop:
"With the unknown of Aviles, I still like Yuniesky as our shortstop,"

He should have added, “By default.”  It’s not like the Royals have options at this position.  Although I found the first part of Hillman’s comment interesting.  It’s as if he’s open to playing Aviles over Betancourt.  Oh boy, just the idea of Hillman even thinking that makes me happy.

Although I harbor serious doubts it will ever happen.

Aviles has said he’d like to return by spring training, but that’s pushing it for someone who had Tommy John surgery in June.  You have no idea how badly I want this to happen.  If Aviles’ offensive production from 2008 was cut in half, he’d still be twice as good as Betancourt.

Hillman on Alex Gordon:
"At the moment, for me, Gordon is our third baseman. We are all hopeful that he's going to be fully recovered and have a healthy season,"

Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  It's possible he will be feeling the heat from Josh Fields, but what are the Royals really going to do here?  Gordon is going to get a raise and will have to be played.  I suppose the Royals could move him to a corner outfield spot. 

Of course, both will probably split time at third in spring training and Hillman will decide to put one of them in the outfield for the first time on Opening Day.  SABR Trey!

The latter part of Hillman’s comment caught my attention as well.  So, Gordon wasn’t healthy when he returned from hip surgery?  I’m not surprised, given the fact he lost his power, but this is the first time I think I’ve heard someone from the team talk about that.  Oh, well.  That’s all water (and service time) under the bridge.

Hillman on the outfield:
"I'd like to leave DeJesus [in left].  The only thought of moving him is ... if we felt Jose Guillen wasn't going to be able to play in right and we had a better fit in left.”

So it sounds like the Royals will create space for Fields by moving DeJesus to right. I’m sure he would be fine, but it’s worth pointing out DeJesus has played around 160 innings in right in his career.  Fields has played 180 innings in left. 

I really don’t get this Royal philosophy of the defensive shell game where they just throw guys out there willy-nilly.  Last year the Royals defense sucked.  There was only one guy who was decent with the glove and now they want to move him to a different position?  Explain that one to me?

Hillman mentioned DeJesus’ throwing accuracy and “strength of his arm.”  Huh? 

Am I missing something?  I never thought DeJesus had a particularly strong arm.  The data at The Hardball Times backs this up, as he regularly has finished with a negative runs saved rating when measured by his arm.  I don’t think his arm is bad - It’s not like he’s Johnny Damon - but I think he’s probably average to below average in this department.  And I certainly don’t think he’s going to be throwing out many runners at third base from right field. 

It’s comments like that from Hillman that make me question his suitability to manage in the major leagues.

Hillman on his injured pitchers Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister and Gil Meche:
“All very healthy, very strong and in great condition.”

And what I call the Spring Training Sunshine Stories have begun.  “(Insert player’s name here) is in the best shape of his career!”  Yeah.  I’ll believe it when I see it.

Quote of the week from a Cubs official via Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star on the rumored Milton Bradley for Gil Meche discussions:

"If that had been possible, there would not have been time for it to be a rumor."

Somebody in Chicago is smart.   Hopefully, somebody in Kansas City is, too.

Well, here we are on Day Three of the Winter Meetings with a whole lot of nothing.   Given the rumors we have heard, 'nothing' is the best we could hope for at this point.  

The thought of watching the worst of the Molina brothers catch (or to be more exact, bat) everyday kind of made my stomach hurt.   The signing of Jason Kendall or Rod Barrajas was not much more intriguing.  

Felix Pie is a fun name to discuss, but are you willing to trade Billy Butler or Alex Gordon (the apparent asking price of the Orioles)?   Interesting, however, that Gordon still commands some value.

The big three way deal centered around Curtis Granderson might get the real activity started, so today could be interesting....maybe.

Now, what about the Rule 5 draft?

MLB.com raised some interesting possibilities and Kings of Kaufmann had been running down draft possibilities over the past week.   You can make virtually any prospect sound intriguing, or awful, so Rule 5 is a true crapshoot.   Then again, I like shooting craps.

The Authority (or at least this half of it) is going to plant both feet firmly aboard the Zach Kroenke bandwagon.   The 25 year old lefty reliever had a great year in AAA last season, holding opponets to a .213 average.   He has Midwestern roots, having been born in Lincoln, Nebraska (where we have a foot of snow this morning and 30 mph winds, by the way) and pitched at the University of Nebraska - for whatever that's worth.

I like Kroenke for the simple fact that he is a reliever (by far the most successful position to consistently emerge from Rule 5) and he's lefthanded (which means the Royals could avoide the temptation to retain John Bale...again).  

Now, there are a lot of other players out there:  Colin Curtis, an outfielder from the Yankees' system, for example.   I am not sold on position players simply because they are harder to hide on a 25 man roster and it is hard to see the next Shane Victorino or Josh Hamilton in this year's bunch.  

Of course, the Royals have some roster moving to make to clear room for a Rule 5 pick and also Noel Arguelles, once that deal grinds through the system.   That should not be an issue on a roster with John Bale, Victor Marte, Roman Colon, Luis Hernandez, Mario Lisson and Josh Anderson on it.  Not to mention potential non-tenders John Buck and Mike Jacobs.

Running down those names, and given the Royals prospects for 2010, it would be almost criminal for Dayton Moore to pass on the Rule 5 Draft this year.

As I mentioned above, we're basically snowed in here at Royals Authority HQ North, so check back for any breaking news throughout the day.

It's fair to say I'm really psyched by the winter meetings.  A week of baseball talk in the middle of December?  I'm game.

Not a lot happened except the talk on the opening day of the meetings.  With little real activity, let's recap some of the rumors...

It was early when the Milton Bradley to Kansas City rumors reared their head.  I’m not surprised - Bradley needs to move to an AL team and the Cubs are desperate to deal.  However, I was surprised with the name the Royals were rumored to be sending to Chicago.  Gil Meche.  Really?

Financially, this deal makes sense.  Both players have two years remaining and both are due roughly the same amount of cash.  But that’s the only part of this rumor that makes sense.

Think about it.  First, trading for Milton Bradley and not moving Jose Guillen gives the Royals a rare twofer - Two grumpy players who will clash with their manager and teammates, alienate fans with their boorish behavior and can’t play in the field.  Unless the Royals are casting to do the MLB version of Tool Academy, there’s no reason to have both these guys on the same team.  Now, I will say that I’d take Bradley over Guillen in a heartbeat.  Bradley can still be productive with the bat. 

Two, the Royals aren’t trading Meche this winter.  Yeah, I know everyone not named Greinke could be traded, but come on… GMDM says pitching is the currency of the game and he has a pretty good one at an affordable contract in Meche.  As long as SABR Trey doesn’t blow out his arm (and given how he handled his starter last year, I have my concerns) Meche can be a solid number two starter behind Greinke.  That’s something every team needs - a dependable one-two punch.

(By the way, where did this nonsense start that Meche’s contract is a bad one?  The man put up solid first two years with an ERA+ of 124 in 2007 and 109 in 2008.  He faltered last summer, but he was hurt.  First, he was dealing with back issues out of spring training, then he was abused by his manager who was frightened of his bullpen.  Besides, the Royals defense was dreadful last year.  Meche threw more ground balls last year than any other time of his career.  Bad timing on his part.)

So this Meche for Bradley rumor isn’t happening.  Good.

Next, the Royals came up several times in conjunction with the lean catching market.  In addition to Ivan Rodriguez, who came up last week, the Royals were linked to Jason Kendall and Rod Barajas.  To this, I have a simple response…

Ugh.

Of this motley crew, I’d put Barajas at the head of the class I suppose.  It’s a lukewarm endorsement, but his defense is better than the other two and that’s something GMDM has stated is a priority this winter.    

The Giants, Mariners and Rockies are all in the market for a catcher.  So are the Mets and the Nationals.  There just aren’t any decent options currently available.

I think the smart play for the Royals will be to tender a contract to Buck and get him locked in for 2010.  This way, they can have a starting catcher in place.  Then, if someone becomes available on the cheap and would be a better option, the Royals can release Buck and will only have to pay him a fraction of his salary.  They’ve gone this route before under GMDM (Ross Gload and Jimmy Gobble last spring) so they can certainly do it again. 

Of course, if the Royals really fall in love with a guy, they can jump early.  The rumor mill has the Pirates shopping Ryan Doumit and it’s possible the Rays are going to non-tender Dioneer Navarro.  Both are probably the best of the bunch I’ve mentioned.  Doumit had a miserable season after missing most of the first half with a wrist injury.  He’s locked in for the next two years at a total of $8.65 million with club options for 2012 and 2013.  I’m not sure why the Pirates would be looking to deal, but that’s not really my concern.  What is my concern, is I doubt the have the trade chips to bring him to KC.

They may not need a large trade chip if they decide to pursue Navarro, who is a non-tender candidate since the Rays picked up Kelly Shoppach last week from Cleveland.  Navarro is a contact hitter who lacks power and was unlucky last year with a .231 BABIP.  Defensively, he’s solid, throwing out roughly 30% of all would be base stealers and showing an ability to block the balls in the dirt.  Overall, I don’t think he’s much better than Buck, but he’ll be 26 next season and that alone gives him upside over the other stiffs the Royals have been connected with in the early going.  If the Royals think he’s their guy, they’ll need to pull the trigger now before he hits the open market.

I’m on the record as saying I think the Royals should bring Buck back for one more year.  However if they can get an under 30 catcher with some upside (Doumit) for less money (Navarro) than it would take to retain Buck, I wouldn’t be opposed to a move.  However, all indications are the Royals are planning to non-tender Buck.  Unless they already have his replacement in place, that would be the wrong move.  If they cut Buck loose without having someone to fill his shoes (admittedly, they aren’t big shoes to fill) they’ll be in the position where they have to fill the spot.  That’s the kind of stuff we saw all too often from the Allard Baird regime - painting yourself in a corner without a viable option.

Of course we all know Dayton doesn’t wait for the market to establish itself.  He likes to establish the market.  I expect he’ll make a move sooner rather than later.

Overall, kind of a dud for day one.  Hopefully, day two will bring more than rumors and we’ll get a little action.

The Winter Meetings begin today and for those of us who love rumors and speculation, this is THE week.

The first big one out of the box this morning is a rumor that the Mets are 'intrigued' by Gil Meche.

Part of me cringes at trading Meche because a) I really like him and b) it reeks of the usual 'trade for prospects and play for the future' plan of action that the Royals have seemingly followed for the past twenty years.

However, any rumor that included the possibility of ridding the club of Kyle Farnsworth does ease the pain a little.   We should be cautious in this instance, as this rumor also mentions Luis Castillo coming to the Royals.   That puts this rumor into the pure speculation category in my mind.   With the Royals already sitting there with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz, it seems unlikely that they would take on Castillo's contract (basically half what Meche is owed).     Of course, you could go unconventional and still trade Callaspo, let Castillo and his .387 on-base percentage lead off as the designated hitter and still play Getz (a/k/a the next Brian Roberts) at second base.

Putting all that speculation aside, the Royals have made it known that they are willing to listen on Gil Meche.   That makes some sense, maybe even a lot of sense, in that Meche is expensive (for the Royals) and might well garner some decent returns to flesh out the future lineup.   If the move is made this winter, we all need to hope it is because the deal is right and the other team involved is focusing on Meche's outstanding 2007 and 2008 seasons and not his injury filled 2009 campaign.

The return simply must be good because Meche is the kind of guy we should hate to lose.   He was a number three starter who got a big contract and was willing to step up and be the staff leader.   This is a player who never once has sighed and said 'well, that's just baseball'.    Gil is the kind of guy Kansas City should want on its roster, but he may be a luxury on a team that probably will not contend.

Trading Meche is not a bad idea, but what comes back needs to be good.   This is one Dayton Moore has to get right.

This move seems to have caught everyone by surprise.  Everyone.  Except for Yahoo's Jeff Passan who broke the story this evening on Yahoo's site.

Noel Arguelles, a 19-year-old left-hander who last year defected from Cuba, agreed to a five-year, $7 million major league deal with the Royals on Saturday, according to a club source. Arguelles can earn up to $2 million in incentives as well. An official from another team interested in Arguelles said he had been informed a deal was close.

Arguelles was ranked by ESPNs Keith Law as the 10th best free agent available this winter.

If he were an American high school or junior college player, he'd be a solid first-rounder with a chance to be a top-10 guy and probably would be a $4 million bonus baby. As a free agent, he should easily double that.

Well, it looks like he will indeed double the $4 million Law guessed he would earn if he were in the draft.

According to Law, Arguelles has a fastball that rests between 91 and 94 with his change-up developing as a plus pitch.  And his curve projects as an above average pitch as well.

We've heard rumblings the Royals would like to be agressive in the Latin market and this is certainly the biggest move the club has ever made.  It's an enormous gamble, but it's one the Royals have to take if they have the resources allocated.  Arguelles has loads of talent and he jumps into the minor league system already semi-deep in pitching.  Speculation from Passan is that Arguelles will start in A-ball and will be fast-tracked to the major leagues.  Since this is a major league contract, he'll have to be added to the Royals 40-man roster.  And don't forget, Crow is on the 40-man roster as well, possibly giving the Royals two pitchers who have yet to throw a pitch in a pro game (I'm not counting Crow's time in the AFL... I'm talking about summer, minor league ball) on their roster.

My recommendation if you're looking for the latest is to keep checking Yahoo's baseball page because Passan has been way out in front of this story and has been doing a great job.  Unfortunately, Passan isn't on Twitter, but I learned of the move from his Yahoo colleague, Big League Stew, via Twitter.  Heck, you should probably follow us on Twitter as well... We'll be sure to retweet all the breaking Royals news we can find.

A little more scuttlebutt emerges overnight that the Royals and A's discussed a trade involving Alberto Callaspo.   No other names have leaked out of this rumor and the talks apparently made little, if any, progress.   All this revelation really tells us is that Dayton Moore is actively marketing Callaspo.

A quick hit on this strategy is that I am in favor of it and here's why:

1. While I think Callaspo will always hit some, I am not sold that he will consistently post an OPS+ of 114, nor smoke 60 extra base hits again.
2. He is an awful second baseman:  not just physically, but mentally as well.   Yes, you can say that Chris Getz was not a very good second baseman, either, but he looked like he can get better.  Callaspo simply strikes me as a player who will never 'get it' in the field.
3. I don't think Alberto would be a very good third baseman or left fielder, either.   Plus, if you move Callaspo to third, Gordon to first and Butler to DH, you run the risk of annoying your best hitter (Butler) and giving your biggest unrealized talent (Gordon) just one more thing to think about.
4. My completely unscientific, certainly optimistic, expectation is that Chris Getz may actually be the better player than Callaspo by the end of 2010.

Now, the big risk is that Dayton Moore is the guy to pull the trigger on the deal.    For every Burgos for Bannister deal, Moore has two Nunez for Jacobs disasters.   Although, it should be noted that his trade percentage success is considerably higher than his free agent signing success.

Given that every GM in the league knows that Callaspo is not a great defender, they might well fire away with low ball offers and see if Moore will jump just to jump.   If that is the case, the Royals simply need to stand pat and wait for a contender to get desperate in mid-July.

If the Royals do keep Callaspo, however, the risks do not end.   Let's just say that Alberto does continue to produce at the plate as he did in 2009, will a move to third change that?   What about a move to make Callapso an unconventional designated hitter?  While that seems to makes sense, it would certainly cut into his mid-season trade value.  

Of course, the bigger issue of moving Callaspo to third is the knock on effect to Gordon and Butler mentioned in point number three above.   Who do you want to keep content more?  Billy Butler or Alberto Callaspo?

The Royals could simply keep Callaspo at second, also, but then what was the point of trading Teahen for Getz?  

Dayton Moore does not have to trade Callaspo, but he is certainly right to explore all options to do so.   Caution, however, is the key word in dealing or even just moving Alberto Callaspo.

As Clark outlined yesterday, there are several important dates upcoming on the MLB off season calendar.  The first date of note is today, as it’s the last day for teams to offer their free agents salary arbitration. 

The only way for a team to collect an extra draft pick when they lose a player to free agency is if his former club offered arbitration and was turned down.  Last year, the Royals forfeited their second round choice when they signed Type A free agent Juan Cruz, who refused an offer of arbitration from the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Of course, these days teams value their draft picks and are loath to give them up, even for a “proven” commodity that is a free agent.  That's why the Royals deal with Cruz last February was so surprising. 

With the arbitration deadline looming, the Royals only have to make one decision today.

If you are the general manager of the Royals, do you offer Miguel Olivo arbitration?

As with any move the Royals make this winter, this must be measured in dollars and cents.  Or is it sense?  (Sorry… Bad pun.)

Fangraphs places Olivo’s value for his 2009 season at $9.8 million.  Ummm… That’s a bit on the lofty side.  Most of that is due to what Fangraphs terms a “positional” value.  (I love WAR and the work the crew at Fangraphs does, but like every other system I’ve seen, they have an extremely difficult time finding a formula to properly evaluate the value of catchers.  It’s just an incredibly unique position.) 

Instead of looking at overall value, (we know his defense was awful - probably the worst among regular catchers last year) I’d like to concentrate on what Olivo brought to the team with his bat.  According to Fangraphs, he was one run above average.  That ranked him 13th out of all catchers with more than 200 plate appearances.  (Why 200 plate appearances?  Because I’d like to include John Buck, who was 0.2 runs above average which ranked 16th.)  Click here for the list. 

One run above average with the bat doesn’t sound like much, but for his position, it’s pretty solid. 

It’s worth pointing out that I’ve said this since Dayton Moore traded for Olivo prior to the 2008 season - Offensively, John Buck and Miguel Olivo are the same person.  There’s absolutely no reason for the Royals to pay north of $7 million for two players when they could spend $3.5 million for one.  Maybe they’ll finally wise up and keep one (Buck) at the expense of the other (Olivo.)  Neither player is all that great, but I’d rather have one on my team instead of both.

The Royals still have time to decide on what to do with Buck.  However, there’s not much available as far as catchers.  There are rumors the Cleveland Indians could non-tender Kelly Shoppach.  His power wasn’t there last summer, but he was still able to get on base.  The Rockies declined their mutual option on Yorvit Torreabla.  He’s Olivo without the power.  Robinzon Diaz (yes, that’s the correct spelling of his first name) was waived and released by the Pirates last week and is now a free agent.  He has zero power, but had a decent first year in the majors, has a decent minor league track record and is likely the most affordable of all the free agent options.

The Royals already declined the $3.3 million option for Olivo.  He’s going to be 32 next July and has a career line of .243/.278/.423.  He’d like a multi-year deal, but at this point in his career and with teams counting their pennies, I don’t see it.  He’s had a couple of weeks on the open market so he and his representation should have some idea as to what the market currently holds.  I’m betting their initial findings show it wasn’t as strong as they thought.  I'm betting they'd like to have the luxury of an arbitration offer in their back pocket.  (They have a week to decided whether to accept or decline.)

The Royals would certainly like to gain a draft choice, but the threat of Olivo accepting an offer of arbitration is all too real.  Can the Royals take that risk?  I don’t think so, because the danger is very real that he could make more than $3.3 million if his case goes all the way.  What a disaster that would be where the Royals - who already lack payroll flexibility - could possibly pay Olivo more than what was originally coming to him.  Is the benefit - a second round draft choice - greater than the potential cost - bringing back Olivo at close to $4 million for 2010?  I don't think so.

So to answer the question posed at the top of this entry, I doubt the Royals offer Olivo arbitration.  At least I hope not.