This morning, I am going to run through a quick exercise in constructing the Royals' twenty-five man roster for the coming season.   My guess is that almost everyone who reads any Royals' blog has already done this in one form or another, but I have serious doubts that the Royals' front office has.  

Okay, sure, we know that is total sarcasm, but seriously I think the Royals have a firm idea on the 40 man roster, but only a vague 'things will work themselves out' idea as to the 25 they will break camp with.   You can make an argument that this is the perfect way to go into spring training and I would generally agree, but I do wonder if a 'small budget' club like the Royals can assemble and pay for 30+ guys to compete for their 25 spots?

The catching position is pretty simple:  Jason Kendall starts, Brayan Pena watches.   The hope is that Kendall is an upgrade defensively and in handling the pitchers, while not just destroying you at the plate.   If he can get on base at even a .340 clip, throw runners out and get along with Greinke and Meche, he might be tolerable.   In Pena, the Royals have a switch-hitter who might log some time at DH.   I wish the team had given Pena two months of everyday duty last year to find out if he really is THAT bad behind the plate, but that ship has sailed.   Manny Pina, acquired from Texas last year, is the next in line, but his bat is not ready for the bigs (and may never be).  He is, should everything go to hell, probably the best defensive catcher in the organization.   At any rate, it's Kendall and Pean:  that's two.

The corner infield positions are pretty clear:  Billy Butler and Alex Gordon.   What happens after that is a mystery.   The Royals acquired Josh Fields as part of the Mark Teahen trade, making rumblings about Fields playing a corner outfield spot, but that has gone by the wayside with the signings of Podsednik and Ankiel.   Out of options, Fields will be on the 25 man roster come April, likely as the backup third baseman and part-time designated hitter.   That's three more guys, for a total of five.

We will jump out to the outfield at this point.   I shudder to think how the team is going to actually arrange David DeJesus, Rick Ankeil and Scott Podsednik defensively, but we all know that those will be the three outfielders and that they will play everyday.    The signing of Ankiel brought out the semi-public announcement that Jose Guillen would be the club's primary designated hitter - something Jose probably has not yet heard and won't like when he does.   While the 'just cut him' plan of action is certainly appealing and maybe even logical, it is hard to see the Royals doing so.    There's four players, four veterans mind you, that will be on the team in April, bringing us to a total of nine on our roster.

Okay, middle infield will be...deep breathe...Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop and somebody else.   Of course, the Teahen trade also brought Chris Getz over and the expectation is that he will be an upgrade defensively at second over Alberto Callaspo.   However, with Guillen moving to DH (not to mention Fields), playing Getz at second leaves few places for Callaspo to play.   As much as I hate watching Alberto field, I do love watching him hit.   The other glaring problem is that keeping Betancourt, Getz and Callaspo leaves no room for Willie Bloomquist.   We all know that's not going to happen (besides, Willie is the only one who can play short).   The wild card in this equation is Mike Aviles.   My guess is that Aviles will not be ready at the start of the season and will open the year on the disabled list.

We will assume that the Royals will open the year with a 12 man pitching staff or move to that sooner rather than later.   Although he has options left, it is hard for me to believe Dayton Moore traded Mark Teahen for a bench player and a guy who is going to play in Omaha.   That leaves Getz on the roster, with Callaspo and Bloomquist who, for all his faults, can fill the role of both fourth outfielder and utility infielder.   With Betancourt, that makes four for a total of thirteen.

That means Brian Anderson, all $700,000 of him, is in AAA and Mitch Maier, out of options, might be somewhere else come April.   The schedule might allow the team to open with eleven pitchers, so it could be Mitch and the organization a couple of weeks to sort out what to do, but by the end of April, barring a trade or simply cutting bait with Guillen, Mitch will be off the Royals' big league roster.

Now, onto the pitching staff.   The starting rotation right now will be Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Hochevar and either Kyle Davies or Robinson Tejeda.   There are rumblings about the Royals fishing for a veteran, which would likely be the end of Davies and push Tejeda back to the pen.    Right now, though, my money is on Tejeda as the number five starter.   At any rate, that's five guys, so we are up to eighteen total, now.

The bullpen will have Joakim Soria and Juan Cruz at the backend, with Kyle Farnsworth available for blow-out work (what a fine use of funds, by the way).   Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna is all but guaranteed a spot, which fills four of the seven spots.

I would be pretty amazed if veteran journeyman Matt Herges does not get a spot.   Just a hunch, but I think he will trade it that number 77 for a real baseball number by April.  I am also hoping beyond all hope that the Royals give and Carlos Rosa earns a spot in the bullpen this year.   Rosa, performing as I hope he might, is the guy who makes what Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth do irrelevant.   

That leaves one final spot (assuming Tejeda is the fifth starter) up for grabs between Ramon Colon, Victor Marte, Dusty Hughes and all the non-roster invitees.   Throw Herges into this mix if you want and say this group is fighting for two roster spots.   It doesn't much matter how it ends up, but that's seven relievers, twelve pitchers and a 25 man roster.

Now, in reading all this, how likely do you think it is that all of Chris Getz, Jose Guillen and Alberto Callaspo break camp with the Royals?   You could throw David DeJesus into that mix as well as he is likely the most tradable of all the Royals' position players.   Barring trades or another free agent signing, I would put pretty good money on the 25 players outlined above.   

Part of me is pretty certain Dayton Moore has two more moves on his agenda that will make the real 25 man roster different from the above.   All of me is hoping that is the case.     

Thursday was PECOTA day in the internet baseball universe as it was the day Baseball Prospectus unveiled their annual projections.  Perhaps most famous for calling Tampa’s jump from worst to first in 2008, the PECOTAs have long been the standard by which other projections have been measured.

I’m beginning to wonder what all the fuss is about.

This isn’t about the Royals won-loss projection or about their position in the AL Central.  Let’s take care of this right away.  Here’s how PECOTA says the Central will play out.

At this stage in the winter, I can’t quibble with the standings.  The Twins added a couple decent bats and it seems like none of the five has done a damn thing to improve their rotations.  So it figures the standings would remain bunched together for yet another season.  They should call it the AL Status Quo.

However, I don’t think that 82 wins will take the division.  Last year, the Twins won the division with 87 wins and I expect the same number will be required, give or take a couple of wins.  It also seems like either the White Sox or the Tigers could leapfrog the Twins and take control of the division.  At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if any of the top three teams took the crown.  The Indians win total seems wildly optimistic. 

The Royals projection seems correct.

So my issue with PECOTA this year isn’t with the standings, although the won-loss records could use some adjusting.  My issue is with the expected offense.

PECOTA is on the juice.  Check how their projection for runs scored fits into the 10 year run scoring trend.  The following graph represents the total runs scored in the AL for each year since 2000.  The 2010 number on the right is the PECOTA projection.



Wow.  It’s projecting 11,656 runs will be scored in the American League.  If that happened, it would be the second most since 2000, when 11,995 runs crossed the plate.  After some… uh, inflated numbers in the late nineties, the trend seems to be fewer runs.  This projection calls for a substantial increase of over 700 runs.  While that’s a huge number, it’s not unprecedented.  A similar jump occurred from ’95 to ’96. (Don’t worry, I adjusted for the shortened ’95 season.)

Last year, the league average for runs scored was 781.  PECOTA says every team but the Toronto Blue Jays will outscore the 2009 AL average. 

It’s the same story with OBP.  Last year, the average AL team posted a .336 on base percentage.  PECOTA says every team will top that except the poor Jays. 

For the Royals they rank the top hitters as follows:

Butler - .297/.370/.489
DeJesus - .294/.379/.433
Callaspo - .298/.363/.422
Gordon - .263/.352/.433
Ankiel - .257/.323/.470

In short, they don’t buy Callaspo’s power surge from last year, they expect DeJesus to get on base at a much better clip than ever before (his career high OBP is .366) and they’re looking for Gordon to basically repeat his 2008 season.

Overall, they have the Royals down for a .346 OBP and a .424 slugging percentage.  Those are both big increases from 2009 when they posted a .318 OBP and a .405 slugging percentage.  Objectively, I ask you to look at this lineup compared to last year’s and tell me if you think they’ve improved that much.  I’ll go ahead and call my shot right now and say they’ll be within five points of both stats.  They’re not going to improve their OBP by 28 points.  Not with Yuniesky Betancourt and Jason Kendall anchoring the bottom of the order. That’s insane.

How about the pitching?  Would you be interested to know they project a 4.82 ERA and 1.51 WHIP for Gil Meche?  Or more alarmingly, a 4.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for Zack Greinke? 

Are you kidding? 

If Greinke has an ERA over 3.50, I’ll be so depressed I won’t be able to get out of bed.  That’s a helluva regression.

But hang on.  Do you know what PECOTA projected for Greinke in 2009?  A 4.01 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP!  Whew!

OK.  This isn’t meant to bash PECOTA.  All projections have their hits and misses.  This is mostly for fun and fantasy baseball players anyway.  The BP crew does a nice job getting this info out and standing behind what they do.  I can respect that, even if I don’t put much stock in it.  The offensive numbers they are projecting for 2010 just seem way too high to be realistic.  Again, I'm only looking at the league as a whole and the Royals as individuals.  There just seem to be some elevated OBP numbers for nearly everyone on the Royals.

Personally, I’ve moved on to CHONE for my projections.  Of all the projections I revisit, they seem to be closest to the mark with the greatest frequency.  For 2010, they have Greinke at a 3.33 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.  Yeah, I like that one better.

This is the final installment in our 'If Everything Goes Right' series, focusing on what is perceived to be Kansas City's organizational strength:  starting pitching.

At the major league level in 2010, the starting rotation is likely to look pretty familiar.    As we are in 'everything goes right' mode, let's assume that Gil Meche and Brian Bannister are both healthy.   That locks down the top three spots as a guy named Greinke, Meche and Bannister.   The four and five starters will likely come from the top two spring performances out of Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies and Robinson Tejeda.   Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna might figure in, too, but odds are that he will work out of the bullpen this season.

It is possible that Dayton Moore will move, unnecessarily in my opinion, to acquire a veteran arm to put in the rotation (Erik Bedard & Jarrod Washburn have been rumored), but we will not factor that in today.

If Gil Meche returns to his 2007 and 2008 form and Brian Bannister simply performs at the level he did last year (good for 3 or 4 starts, then bad for 3 or 4), then the Royals will send an effective starter to the mound in a minimum of fifty percent of their games.   If they can get any sort of improvement out of Luke Hochevar or if Robinson Tejeda really is the guy that pitched so well in August and September last year, then they will enjoy the benefits of a solid rotation. 

Solid, maybe even actually good, but not 'elite'.   That part of the equation will still be in the minors in 2010, headed by Aaron Crow.

Crow is likely to start the year in AA and the Royals certainly have to hope that he pitches well enough to warrant a September look in the majors.   Will he be ready to take a full-time spot in the rotation to start 2011?   Odds are that is pushing it a bit, but it is not without precedence (Jared Weaver anyone?) to see Crow up and in the major league rotation by June of 2011.  

If the Royals don't trade Gil Meche at the deadline in 2010, the readiness of Crow in mid-2011 makes that decision a no-brainer.  If, by some stroke of good fortune, Kansas City finds itself in the race in June of 2011, then the addition to Crow in behind Greinke and Meche would certainly be welcome ammunition for a pennant run.   I think what Crow does in the first few months of 2010 might even have an impact on the club's willingness to trade or not trade Meche, but that's a topic for another day.

Of course, behind Crow (in arrival to the majors, but maybe not in ability once there) are lefties Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy.   At 20 years old, Duffy has already completed a full season in High A ball and possesses a minor league resume that inclues 290 strikeouts in 246 innings with a career WHIP of 1.10.   Now, many an intriguing arm has gone from dominating the Carolina League to being dominated in the Texas League, but Duffy sure looks like the real deal to me.

While Duffy is almost certain to start the year in Northwest Arkansas, he may or may not be joined by Montgomery.   My take, as an impatient Royals fan, is get Montgomery into AA in April, not June, but it would be hard to fault the organization for giving their number one prospect a couple more months of High A seasoning (he split 2009 between the two levels of A ball) before sending him up to AA.   No matter where he starts, Montgomery (should everything go right) will end the year dominating AA and be poised to start 2011 in Omaha, where Duffy will surely be as well.

So, now you enter the 2011 season with a rotation of Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Hochevar and Osuna/Tejeda/Lerew/Davies, with Aaron Crow virtually ready to take a spot and Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery heading up the best rotation the Omaha Royals have seen since....ever, maybe.    It doesn't take a 'baseball man' to see where that ends up.

How does a late season 2011 starting rotation of Greinke, Crow, Duffy, Montgomery and Meche/Bannister/Hochevar sound?  I anticipate that between now and late August of 2011 that two of those last three names will have been traded, but seriously how nice would it be to trade Meche for prospects and have the luxury of Bannister and Hochevar fighting it out for your FIFTH rotation spot instead of your third?

What gets exciting at this point is that the Royals still have Noel Arguelles and Timothy Melville in AAA by 2012, with John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Kelvin Herrera, Tyler Sample and Keaton Hayenga all in AA.   By the way, in 2012, all but Dwyer will be23 years of age or younger and Chris will be just 24.

Of course, we all know that developing young pitching into major league quality is a crap-shoot and the Royals have a history of botching the process. Yet, I have listed a bunch of names and the truth is that by 2013, the Royals will have had to have two completely separate lists of guys all not reach their potential to not have a truly outstanding rotation.

Truthfully, Kansas City needs two out of Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy and Luke Hochevar to be take two spots in the rotation (legitimately TAKE, not just win by default, ala Kyle Davies) and two more out of Edgar Osuna, Arguelles, Melville and the rest listed above to take the next two.  Those are not bad odds, even for an organization like the Royals.

Certainly, as Royals' fans, we have reasons for skepticism, but I am asking for four out of twelve guys to become legitimate major league starting pitchers and totally disregarding the presence of Gil Meche and Brian Bannister or what might be gained from trading one or both at some point in the next two seasons.   

Give me the dice, I'll roll with those odds. 

You are looking at a puzzle.  It’s a simple puzzle, really.  Three pieces.  That’s it.  Your job is to assemble these three pieces in a way that makes the most sense.

This is the task facing Dayton Moore as he tries to piece together his outfield for the upcoming season.  Things like this happen when you have Mitch Maier on your roster and go ahead and sign Brian Anderson, who is basically the same player as Maier.  And then you sign Scott Podsednik, who is only marginally better than Anderson.  Then you sign Rick Ankiel, who is better offensively than all the aforementioned, but now throws the outfield situation into a jumble.  Add David DeJesus and you have five outfielders for three positions.  Wondering where everyone is going to play?  You’re not alone.

Apparently, Moore has it all figured out.  His outfield will have Podsednik in left, Ankiel in center and DeJesus in right.

"We feel that right now, going into spring training, this is the best way to position our outfield defense," Moore said. "These three guys are all capable of playing center field. We felt Rick's best use is to put him in center field at this time."

So the Royals wanted Ankiel so bad, they promised him center field?  Did they even bother to see if that’s, you know… His best position?  Because it’s not.

This outfield mumbo jumbo reminds me of the Jose Guillen signing from 2008.  Remember, Guillen had been a right fielder for most of his career, but the Royals decided he would play left.  Only, they forgot to tell Guillen this fact.  I guess they learned from that mistake and went ahead and handed center to Ankiel during negotiations.  And according to Ankiel, the Yankees were finalists for his signature.  The Yankees!  Do you want to compete with Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher for a role in the outfield and what seems to be a virtual lock on a spot in the postseason, or do you want to be handed the center field job on a fifth place team for one year that’s treading water until the prospects (hopefully) develop?  Honestly, I question Ankiel’s sanity. 

Later in the press conference, Moore claimed the Royals have the best defensive outfield in the AL Central.  Of course they are going to say crap like that.  What do you think they’re going to say?  “Uh, we’re just kind of throwing things randomly out there.  We’ll see what happens.  Fingers crossed, it will work out.” 

Apparently, the Royals are excited because they have what amounts to three center fielders in their outfield.  That’s great, except for this simple fact:  They aren’t very good center fielders to begin with.  None of these guys will be mistaken for Franklin Gutierrez or BJ Upton. They won’t even be confused with Aaron Rowand or Shane Victorino.  These are ordinary, average to below average defensive outfielders. 

(Certainly, any time you can remove Jose Guillen from the outfield mix, you have addition through subtraction.  Throw three chairs out there and your defense is better.  But, still...) 

Only the Royals, coming off a year where the team was horrible defensively and in a winter where there stated goal was to improve their defense, would move their best defensive player from the previous season.  Are you kidding?  Sometimes, you wonder if the guys running this team even watch the games. 

Let’s play a game.  Let’s try to fill the Royals outfield with their preferred starting three. We’ll look at career UZR/150 at all positions across the outfield.  Take the ratings for right field with a grain of salt.  That’s because in their careers, DeJesus has played 166 innings in right, while Ankiel has played 383 innings and Podsednik has played just 124 innings.  The Rng is career range in the outfield.  The ARM is the outfield arm rating for their career.  Both Rng and ARM are presented as collected by FanGraphs.  I adjusted the ARM rating (since it’s a counting stat) by 1,000 innings played.

These are the pieces of our puzzle.  Let’s start assembling this sucker.

Since centerfield is the most important of the three outfield positions and there’s only one of the three players who has a positive UZR/150 in center, I’ll go with Player B.  Although right field is more important defensively on the defensive spectrum, I’ll place the left fielder next, if only because again, none of the three has spent much time at all in right.  Since it looks like my best left fielder is also my best center fielder, I have to go with my second choice.  Looks like it’s going to be Player A.  Hang on though.  Player A has the least range and has the best arm of the bunch.  That seems like he’s taylor made for right field.  And since Player C has some decent range and the weakest arm of my group, it seems like it’s natural to put him in left while positioning Player A in right.

Time to unveil my starting outfield.

Player C is Scott Podsednik, who I would play in left field.

Player B is David DeJesus, who I would play in center.

Player A is Rick Ankiel, who can have right.

See how simple that is? 

This confirms my gut assessment of watching all these guys play over the last couple of years.  Ankiel lacks the range to play center, but has an arm that can make a difference in right.  Podsednik has a weak arm and occasionally takes some bizarre routes on fly balls which makes left his best fit.  And while DeJesus has lost a step in the last year or so and doesn’t have the greatest range, he’s still the best of this group, so that makes him the center fielder. 

And let’s take a moment for a defensive spectrum refresher.  From left to right, the most important defensive position to the least important:

C-SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B

So according to this, center field is the most important defensive position in the outfield.  And according to my numbers, Rick Ankiel is the least qualified of the three starters to player center.  Therefore, since this is the Royals, Rick Ankiel will be the starting center fielder.  Are you kidding me?

Look, anytime you can construct an outfield that doesn’t include Jose Guillen or Willie Bloomquist, that’s a win.  And as I mentioned before, when you remove Guillen’s glove you’re automatically improving the defense.  I haven't mentioned Maier, because it's clear he isn't in the plans for the future.  Although he could probably provide the same production as Podsednik, Moore has chosen to spend a couple million when he could have had the same thing for under $500k.

Regardless, this has a chance of being a decent defensive outfield.  Not great.  Good.  And certainly better than last year. 

Except Moore is doing his best to screw everything up.

Moore has failed Roster Construction 101 time and again.  Now, his oddball collection of middle infielders has been replaced by a strange group of outfield misfits.  Initially, I was on board with the Ankiel signing because I thought he could be an asset.  Now, it seems he’ll serve to make the Royals weaker defensively up the middle.  I have officially given up on having faith in Moore building a roster at the major league level.  In his four winters here, he’s shown exactly zero aptitude in putting together a group of 25 players that have defined roles that make any kind of sense.

There's not much that needs to be said on the Rick Ankiel signing that Craig, Rany and Will have not already covered.   Truthfully, Dayton Moore is batting .500 on my ledger for the off-season.   I like the Teahen for Getz/Fields trade, don't mind the Ankiel signing, am rather unenthusiastic about Scott Podseknik and completely bored (rapidly becoming angered with each new signing of a catcher across the league) with the Jason Kendall signing.

The current roster construction has led even Craig into my world of conspiratorial theories with each acquisition.   He, along with many others, will join those of us who have waited for the 'follow up trade' to these moves for the entirety of the Dayton Moore era.    One of these days, there actually will be an accompanying move that ties all the preceding signings into an actual logical thought process.......maybe.

Anyway, let's move on in our 'If Everything Goes Right' series and quickly cover the bullpen before we finish up with the starting rotation on Wednesday.

While most agree that the potential starting pitching depth in the Royals' system is THE strength of the organization, I would offer that the stable of relievers, while not near as exciting, is almost as promising.   Of course, the very nature of relievers means that trades, signings, implosions and resurrections of careers will be commonplace in this area over the next three years.   For the Royals, as long as none of the four occurrences are mentioned in the same sentence as Joakim Soria, the bullpen will at least have a star to close out games.  Now, getting there is another thing entirely.

Barring a catastrophic injury, the Royals should be able to count on one of top five closer in baseball to anchor the back of their bullpen from now until at least 2013.   Soria's injury troubles early last season probably put an end to any speculation of him becoming a starter at some point, so let's just assume that Joakim stays healthy and remains effective (I can't see him faltering if he stays healthy - in fact, I see him becoming even better) for the next four seasons.

Who fills the spots in front of Soria in 2010 remains something of a mystery for right now, but if everything goes right, Juan Cruz bounces back with a dominant first half setting up Soria and is shipped out for something of use at the trade deadline.   I trade Cruz because he is expendable due to the emergence of Carlos Rosa as the primary setup man for years to come.   Rosa had some struggles last year, but he can be dominant and possesses maybe the best fastball in the organization.  Having struck out nine plus batters per nine innings, there is little left for him to prove in AAA.

If Rosa emerges in 2010 as THAT guy, then the bullpen picture gets easier down the line:   with Rosa and Soria, we have nailed down the 8th and 9th innings for 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Now, there will be a lot of guys coming and going during this timeframe.   The nature of the bullpen means you'll have the Dusty Hughes, Matt Herges, Ramon Colons of the world, with yet to be named veterans, journeymen and promising young arms all coming and going.  What will will focus on here is the guys who will come up and hopefully stick to fill out the pen.

For mid to late 2010, that means an arrival of the two Chris':  Hayes and Nicoll.  

Submariner Chris Hayes is something of a blogosphere icon:  loved and hated.   In fact, it has kind of become the cool thing for the 'knowledgeable' fan to say Hayes is nothing but hype.  I don't buy it.   As long as there are just a handful of submarining pitchers in the game, I think the likes of Hayes has a use in a bullpen.  Sandwiched between fairly traditional fastball/curve starters and Carlos Rosa throwing 97 in the 8th, I think a change of pace guy like Chris Hayes has a real role.   While he struggled enough in Omaha late last season to make one think that Hayes is more of a middle inning guy than a seventh or eighth inning pressure guy, I like him in the Royals pen by mid-season and sticking there in one role or another for several years.

Chris Nicoll, who has already flamed out as a starter and come back to life as a reliever, is a more traditional pitcher, but one with potential to pair up with Rosa in the later innings.   Nicoll was not able to duplicate his 4.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio of 2008, but still had fashioned a nice season in AA (58 K in 61 innings) before struggling in Omaha.   Due to roster problems, however, Nicoll started in five of the six games he appeared in at AAA and I expect a few months back in his relief role might have the big club looking to him for  a mid-season promotion in 2010.  

The Royals, should it all go right, could then open 2011 with a bullpen of Soria, Rosa, Nicoll and Hayes (probably Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna, too, but there is talk of him as a starter, also).   That group would look for mid-season additions from Greg Holland (183 K in 172 innings) who has gone from rookie ball to AAA in three seasons, and quirky Louis Coleman.    Just drafted last year, Coleman pitched at both levels of A-ball last year, striking out 22 in 21 innings and allowing just 10 hits.   He projects as a fast mover through the system, so I don't think relief appearances by mid-2011 are out of the question.

Coming along behind those two would be Henry Barrera, who was good enough to earn a 40 man roster spot last winter only to have his 2009 season washed away by injuries.   A huge strikeout guy, Barrera could join or even replace Rosa as the primary set-up man....if everything breaks right.   

Also expect undrafted Barry Bowden to be along in this timeframe as well.   All Bowden has done since being bypassed by all 30 teams through 50 separate rounds is strike 125 batters in 95 innings while allowing just 61 hits.  He finished up in High A last year and will be in AA to start 2010.   He could be in the majors by late 2011.

Already, by spring of 2012, I have more guys than fit in a bullpen (even Trey Hillman's bullpen), which is a good sign, because not everything does or will go right.   Yet, we have not brought Blake Wood, Jason Godin, Blaine Hardy, Patrick Keating or Brandon Sisk into the discussion, either.

Bottom line, I like the arms in the system that profile out as relievers over the next two to three years.   I like them enough to believe that any contract to a veteran reliever that is more than a one year deal is simply a bad idea.   Trading for bullpen help?  I like that idea even less.   The nice thing about the bullpen situation is that, unlike the tremendous potential of the minor league starters, a lot of these guys are months, not years, away from the majors.   

The story broke late Thursday from Yahoo’s Tim Brown that the Royals signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal valued at $3.25 million.

Ankiel?  Really?

My first thought, where does he fit given that Dayton has already splashed the cash on Brian Anderson and Scott Podsednik?  Of course, this has always been Dayton’s off season M.O.:  An accumulation of “talent” at one position with no rhyme or reason.  This just fits everything he’s done in the past. 

Then there’s always the possibility Dayton signed Ankiel to pitch.  How sad is it that I say this as a joke, but wouldn’t be surprised if it somehow came up that Bob McClure thinks he can fix a flaw in his delievery.

My second thought:  There has to be another move forthcoming.  Podsednik didn’t come here to pinch run.  David DeJesus is a fixture.  Jose Guillen still harbors the illusion he can play the outfield.  And don’t forget about Anderson.  And Josh Fields who somehow figures into this mix.  Oh, Alberto Callaspo is here if we’re talking about designated hitter types.

(Doesn’t that previous paragraph neatly summarize the last 20 years of Royals baseball?  Plenty of players competing for spots creates the illusion there’s quality or the potential for a breakout.  Look at those names again.  Role players, fourth outfielders and an oft-injured malcontent.  Only DeJesus is any kind of quality.  More on him in a moment.  Callaspo is too, but he’s on the periphery here since he’s not an outfielder and he would clearly be the number one choice to be the DH if the Royals are serious about using him there.)

At $3.25 million, that’s a lot of jack, so we can safely assume Ankiel plays every day. 

Is Guillen on his way out?  Greg Schaum tweeted that Guillen isn’t healthy.  That runs counter to Dayton Moore’s statement last week that Guillen is in good shape.  (Did anyone see Guillen at FanFest?  Was he there?)  The Royals could just decide to part ways and give him his unconditional release.  At this point, that’s the only way to unload him. 

Or maybe the Royals are close to trading DeJesus?  At $4.6 million this year and a club option for $6 million in 2011, he’s extremely affordable given his production.  The flip side is that makes him the Royals best trading chip (not named Greinke.)  I realize he’s not a star, but I’m a huge DeJesus fan.  He’s a steady, quality player.  Besides, dealing DeJesus goes against Moore’s stated off season goal of improving the defense.  If you’re looking to do that, do you trade your best defender?

Or maybe the Royals are close to shifting Callaspo.  That would solve the defense issue and clear the way for newcomer Chris Getz.  But Callaspo is still under club control for one more year.  Remember Moore talking about all those 0-3 year guys the Royals need to be stockpiling? 

So if the Royals are going to make a move to clear room for Ankiel, the release of Guillen makes the most sense.  The Royals are in a better position than anyone to assess his health and fitness heading into the year.  If he’s fat and out of shape (again) then it’s time to just let him go.  Normally, I scoff at those who justify a deal by saying, "This has to be the first of a two-part move."  But this time, I really believe that this has to be the case.

Now we have to ask the question, does Ankiel improve the Royals?  I think he does.  Not by much, but he does.  The consensus projection for Ankiel seems to be .250/.310/.445 with 18 home runs and average defense.  That beats the offensive production the Royals got out of center field or right field last year.  And it's far better than they got out of their DH.  Don't forget the tricky thing about comparing projections to past performance.  But even though the Royals have added plenty of outfielders, to this point they haven't gotten anyone appreciably better than what they had last year.  They finally found one in Ankiel.

I’d prefer Ankiel to Podsednik.  I’d prefer Mitch Maier to Podsednik.  That’s where my frustration comes from.  Why the hell would you sign Podsednik if you are going to go after Ankiel.  I understand they’re different players, but you’re throwing more logs into a logjam.  Identify a player you like - a player you think will improve the team - and go for it.  I don’t understand this method of stockpiling mediocrity.  This does nothing to allay my fears that Moore can't assemble a 25 man roster.

(And of course this blows my theory I floated yesterday that the Royals were done.  They were supposed to be between $66 and $67 million in total payroll.  With this contract, they'll be close to $70 million.)

So in this group Ankiel is probably the second best outfielder to DeJesus.  It’s not great.  It’s not ideal.  But it’s better than what we had yesterday.

Bringing Alex Gordon and Robinson Tejeda under contract for 2010, the Royals clear the deck of all their arbitration-eligible cases while Dayton Moore retains a perfect record in these situations… He’s never had a player who was eligible for arbitration go all the way to a hearing. 

Granted, he’s only been the general manager for four years, but that’s still a good bullet point to have on your resume.  Nothing positive comes from arbitration, where players try to inflate their value and teams turn the tables and claim the player wasn’t really all that good.  It’s a process that can only harbor ill will.  Everyone says it’s just business, but it can certainly get personal from time to time. Why take that risk?

The Royals entered this winter with 10 players eligible for arbitration.  Moore summarily cleared the decks at a cost of only $6.865 million.  He dealt with 10 players for under $7 million.  That’s amazing.  We knew heading into this winter that the Royals were in for some financial belt-tightening, but for Moore to do so well… He should get some Wal-Mart stock at a discount.  Or at the very least, a stake in Danny’s next business venture.

Moore released John Bale, Mike Jacobs and John Buck.  (I’m still not pleased at the decision to jettison Buck.)  Doug Waechter was outrighted to Triple-A and is off the 40-man roster.  Lenny DiNardo elected to take free agency.  That left five players who settled:  Brian Bannister, Roman Colon, Kyle Davies and Gordon and Tejeda.

Frankly, I’m surprised at the Gordon contract.  Check out the stats for the following mystery players entering their first year of arbitration eligibility, including their salaries for the following season.  All four players were with the Royals with Dayton Moore in charge when they first became eligible.  See if you can make sense of the numbers.

Player A is Mike Jacobs.  Player B is Mark Teahen.  Player C is John Buck.  And Player D we know is Alex Gordon.

I had estimated that Colon and Gordon would earn $3.5 million between them.  I didn’t break it down further, but I remember my thinking was Colon would earn close to Tejeda money ($750k or so) with Gordon picking up about $2.5 million.  (The discrepancy between the numbers in this paragraph is my way of covering my ass.)

So let’s just say I was surprised Gordon ended up with his contract for $1.15 million.

He’s been worth more wins during his brief career than any of the other guys, but his batting average and slugging percentage aren’t the greatest.  Obviously, he missed all that time last summer with his hip injury, so I guess that had to have been a huge factor.   Well, and the fact he had his worst season as a professional that included an unexpected Nebraska homecoming.  I guess they don’t look at the overall body of work for a first year eligible player.  Timing is everything. 

Let’s see how the salary picture shapes up now that the Royals have 20 players under contract for 2010:

Some notes on the above table.

--  Yuniesky Betancourt’s actual salary will be $3.375 million, but as part of the trade that brought him to Kansas City, the Royals will owe him $2 million.

--  The Royals owe $1.1 million in contract buyouts to Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yashuhiko Yabuta.

-- The Royals are kicking $1.5 million to the White Sox to cover part of Mark Teahen’s 2010 salary. 

--  Noel Arguelles and Aaron Crow both have major league deals, but since both will likely begin the season in the minors, their numbers won’t ultimately be figured in the final Opening Day payroll count.

By removing Arguelles and Crow, the Royals are currently around $63 million.  And that means they will have 7 roster spots to fill.  Assuming these go to Billy Butler, Chris Getz, Josh Fields, Alberto Callaspo, Brayan Pena and a couple of relievers of your choosing, we can figure the Royals will pay this group of seven around $3.5 million collectively. 

That will put the Royals Opening Day payroll at $66.5 million.  That’s down $4 million from last year.

Here’s Bob Dutton from last December:

“The Royals are now projecting a payroll of about $66-67 million on their opening day 25-man roster.”

Nailed it.

The Royals will operate with the same budget as last year, but Moore will bank the surplus and save it for some flexibility for player acquisitions in the middle of the season.  Since he used some flexibility last summer to acquire Betancourt, I'm not sure that's a good thing.  Stay healthy, Royals.

Over the past couple of weeks, I have postulated an 'everything goes right' scenario for the everyday positions in the Kansas City lineup.  I did my best to keep 'everything going right' from becoming 'a walk through utopia' and also ignored potential future free agent signings and possible trades.   As we summarize this series, I will dabble ever so slightly into the trade market, but otherwise try to remain quasi-realistic.

Let's get started with the upcoming season, which has already been altered from our original scenario by the signing of Scott Podsednik.   I have injected totally unscientific projections for each player, based somewhat on past performance, somewhat on comparable players and a whole lot on 'everything going right.'

2010 Lineup

C - Jason Kendall (250/340/350)

1B - Billy Butler (315/385/540 - his 2nd half split of last year)

2B - Chris Getz (270/344/376)

SS - Yuniesky Betancourt (275/310/390), replaced by a healthy Mike Aviles (300/350/450)  by mid-season

3B - Alex Gordon (280/380/500 - hey, it HAS to be his breakout year, right?)

DH/Utility - Alberto Callaspo (300/360/420), traded at mid-season for a outfield prospect with good numbers in AA or AAA, but maybe a touch old for the level (think Casper Wells of the Tigers or Brian Bogusevic of the Astros) and a hard throwing mid to low minors pitcher with potential but no supporting production.

LF - David DeJesus (286/358/425 - same ole David)

CF - Scott Podsednik (277/340/381 - I can't be optimistic here, call me bitter)

RF - Jose Guillen to start out, hopefully replaced sooner rather than later by a platoon of Jordan Parraz (280/350/440) and David Lough (300/340/470)

Sure, I have not mentioned Josh Fields in here, who likely gets in as the DH and in the outfield situation somewhere and maybe, just maybe, Kila Ka'aihue gets a look at designated hitter after Callaspo is traded and Guillen sold (i.e. traded for anything) or simply let go. 

2011 Lineup

C - Jason Kendall (230/325/330) and Manny Pina (230/325/330) - I know, what about Brayan Pena?  Defensively he may not be able to hack it and I don't see the current regime giving him a chance to prove it.   Pina, by all accounts, is a good defender - that's something, I guess.

1B - Billy Butler (325/410/550 - best hitter in the organization since Brett?)

2B - Chris Getz (286/377/410)

SS - Jeff Bianchi (290/340/440 - not bad for a rookie)

3B - Alex Gordon (290/400/520)

Utility - Mike Aviles (300/340/480 - playing everywhere like Willie Bloomquist.......only good)

DH - Kila Ka'aihue (250/380/490 - not great, but better than any other DH the past five years)

LF - David DeJesus (290/360/430) - this one hurts, but after picking up his option the Royals trade him for two prospects (not top 10 types, but top 30 types)

CF - David Lough (310/355/490) - he may not quite have the skills to play centerfield at anything but average, but he is better and cheaper than Podsednik

RF - Jordan Parraz (294/381/445)

The hope would be that the outfield prospect acquired via the 2010 trade of Callaspo could take over after the DeJesus trade.  Heck, it is possible that Podsednik is brought back and the trade of David simply opens up full-time duty for both Parraz and Lough.  Of course, Josh Fields might figure in too.

2012 Lineup

C - Manny Pina (240/330/370) and Sean McCauley (280/350/385)

1B - Billy Butler (320/410/550)

2B - Chris Getz (280/380/420) - possibly pushed by Johnny Giavotella by mid-season

SS - Jeff Bianchi (300/360/470)

3B - Alex Gordon (290/405/550)

Utility - Mike Aviles (280/340/460)

LF - David Lough (320/360/505)

CF - Derrick Robinson (280/340/350 with 60 steals)

RF - Jordan Parraz (290/380/460)

DH - Mike Moustakas (260/340/540)

Waiting in the wings would be Eric Hosmer, possibly transitioning to rightfield and Wil Myers, who is hopefully hitting so well that he is vaulting through the minors and making the Royals wonder how much inexperience they can tolerate behind the plate to get his bat in the lineup.

While we all know that not all of the above is going to happen.   Free agent acquisitions and trades (even the ones we have proposed are not truly factored into the lineups above) will change the landscape we have laid out for the future.   Injuries occur and finances will continue to effect the lineups. 

Still, for fun, which of the above lineups compete?   I think the 2012 group, performing as indicated, is good enough offensively to put the team in the mix and maybe the 2011 lineup has enough, too.   Keep in mind, both of these squads is going to be augmented by the organization's one perceived strength:  starting pitching.

Trust me, if you don't get a warm fuzzy feeling from our 'everything goes right' scenario for the everyday lineup, I almost can guarantee that you will get one when we move onto the pitching staff.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, here comes another 'What If Everything Goes Right' column.

While it has been a week since our last installment, I am going to wait to summarize where the Royals might be by 2012 until we start on the pitching staff.   Today, we will visit the one remaining position on the diamond:  catcher.

My guess is that the first name that popped into your head when you think of 'catcher' and 'future' was Wil Myers.   Frankly, why wouldn't it be?   After all, Myers hit .369/.427/.679 in 22 rookie league games as an eighteen year old:  that's a pretty nice start to a professional career.

The question with Myers, who did not even catch full-time in high school, is can he develop the defensive part of his game and how long will it take?  Let's put it another way:  would you rather have Wil Myers as a solid defensive everyday catcher starting in 2014 or as a possible rookie of the year candidate at a corner outfield position in 2012?

Now, before you answer that question, let's examine some other 'what if' and 'everyting goes right' scenarios.  

The Royals have pretty much committed themselves to a Jason Kendall/Brayan Pena with some Manny Pina sprinkled in situation behind the plate for the next two seasons.   We can 'what if' our way to Jason Kendall resurrecting his younger on-base machine persona (unlikely) or Brayan Pena mastering the mental and defensive aspects of the position (also unlikely, but more plausible than Kendall getting on base thirty-seven percent of the time), but I have to wonder what the point is.    The Royals will stick and are frankly stuck with those two guys behind the plate through the better part of 2011 or at least until the defensively skilled Pina shows he can hit enough to displace them.

While the above paragraph, assuming you managed to stick with it through the run-on sentences, might well have made your stomach hurt, it is worth noting that there are some real live prospects in the minors between Pina and Myers.   While Sean McCauley and Jose Bonilla both struggled mightily in A-ball last year, both have been viewed as realistic options to eventually become major league regulars.  Behind them is Salvador Perez, who also has the potential to 'be somebody' someday.

Despite poor offensive years, at least one of those three almost has to be up in Wilmington in 2010 (McCauley?) and the other two in Burlington.   It would not suprise me to see Bonilla, who posted an OPS above 1.000 in 34 rookie ball games in 2008, to break through offensively and finish a strong 2010 in Wilmington.   

Let's assume that McCauley is able to stop the offensive decline he has experienced with each change in level and show enough to start 2011 in AA along with Bonilla, with Perez and perhaps young Maurcio Matos manning the position in Wilmington.   Would it be totally out of the realm of possibility for either McCauley or Bonilla to get a sniff of the majors in 2011 and possibly start 2012 as the backup to Manny Pina or another veteran stop-gap (one year contract please, not two!).  

Okay, now back to Wil Myers.   What if he demolishes A-ball pitching (I'm assuming he will start in Burlington, Iowa in 2010) and AA pitching the next two years?   It seems unlikely that Myers can learn the nuances of catching at the professional level in basically two seasons, but it seems very possible that he might emerge as the organization's best hitting prospect by the end of 2011.   If McCauley or Bonilla or Pina or Perez is threatening the big league level in 2012 with the idea of being a full-time catcher in 2013 (if not sooner) do you move Myers to less demanding defensive position to get his bat into the majors?

While we have projected David Lough and Jordan Parraz as above average everyday outfielders by then, Wil Myers might well have star quality.  Considering we have projected Billy Butler and Alex Gordon to be impact bats and Mike Moustakas to be a power hitting DH in 2012, what it be worth it to plug another bat into the lineup?   I think it might.

At this point, you might be asking how this column fits into the series.   I have not really projected the end result of the catching situation as I did with the other seven positions, but that is because there is a big unknown in how you develop Myers.   From an organizational perspective, that decision does not need to be made in 2010.  In fact, you almost have to give Myers at least that long to see what he can do behind the plate on an everyday basis. 

By next winter, however, assuming Myers hits like we believe he can, the Royals are going to have to decide what is more important:  catching in 2014 and beyond or offense in 2012.   That will be an interesting decision indeed.

The annual gathering kicks off this afternoon at 1 PM.  Since I have a job (mild mannered employee by day, blogger by night... I'm like Batman.) I won't be attending today.  Possibly Saturday... I haven't decided.  (I always do stuff like this on the spur of the moment.  Keeps everyone on their toes.)

From what I hear, there will be more activities and events than last year, so it should be a good time.  If you're looking to interact with current players, old-timers, broadcasters, etc. this is certainly your event.  Heck, even Dayton Moore himself wanders the exhibition hall, stopping to talk to fans and answering questions.

So if you're going, feel free to use the comments section here to give us your impressions and experiences.  I always like to get as many impressions as possible from events like this to get the "big picture" if you will.  And if you have some cool photos that you'd like to share, send them to brown3829 at gmail dot com.  (Get it?)  Bonus points if you can snag a pic with Greinke, Saberhagen and Cone together.

Pitchers and Jason Kendall are just around the corner.