Royals Authority - A Kansas City Royals Blog
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Written by Craig Brown
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Thursday, 10 September 2009 09:37 |
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Billy Freakin’ Butler.
Clark covered his emergence with the bat yesterday, so I won’t rehash that. I want to discuss something else...
Last night, Bam Bam hit three doubles in a game for the fourth time this season. (Is Bam Bam going to be his nickname? I’m fine with that. I also liked Big Donkey before I learned that that moniker belonged to Adam Dunn.) When he stepped on the bag at second in the bottom of the eighth, he became the first player since at least 1954 (when box scores are less available) to hit three doubles in a game four times in a season.
Butler is a doubles machine. The Star had a nice list of players who popped 45 doubles in season where their age was 23 or younger that includes guys like Lou Geehrig, Joe Jackson, Hank Greenberg, Stan Musial and Alex Rodriguez. Good company.
But I was looking for a different angle. (Because that’s what we do.) Since I’m kind of captivated by this three doubles in a game thing that Butler has done, I thought I’d go back and look at the number of players who have done that the most.
By my count, since 1954 just seven players have had at least five games where they hit three or more doubles. Here’s the list, with a familiar name at the top:
George Brett - 7 Mike Lowell - 7 Mark Grace - 6 Don Mattingly - 5 Miguel Tejada - 5 Ron Belliard - 5 Albert Belle - 5
Maybe that’s why I love the double so much. Brett was the ultimate doubles machine, collecting 665 over his career.
Dave Parker, Al Oliver, Robin Yount, Eric Hinske, Ray Durham, Wade Boggs and Bobby Abreu are among the players who had three doubles in a game four times in their career. That’s where Butler currently resides. Of course, those guys accomplished this over a span of around 15 years. Butler has done it in a single season.
Awesome. There hasn't been much fun at the ballpark this summer, but Butler may just be worth the price of admission.
Billy Freakin' Butler. Read 4 Comments... >> |
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Written by Clark Fosler
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Wednesday, 09 September 2009 09:56 |
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Sam Mellinger tweeted the other day that a baseball guy summed up the Royals rather accurately and succinctly: their good players aren't good enough.
That is a sentiment we have offered more than once on this site and on many others, too. David DeJesus could be a regular on a contender, but he cannot be your best or second best hitter. Same could be said for Alberto Callaspo (we'll ignore his defense for now) and maybe even Mark Teahen.
Since trading Carlos Beltran, the Royals have been without an offensive star. A supporting cast - sometimes not a very good cast at that - with no marquee name.
As bad as 2009 has been for the Kansas City Royals, two good things have happened: Zack Greinke has emerged as possibly the best starting pitcher in the league and Billy Butler has laid the groundwork to become an actual offensive force.
For the year, Butler's OPS+ of 122 ranks 30th in the American League. While that may sound (and is) rather modest, it is worth noting that only one player ranked above Butler is his age. At twenty-three years of age, Butler and Evan Longoria are the two youngest players in the top thirty and are, in fact, two years junior to Adam Lind: the next youngest player in the top thirty.
While Billy's overall batting line of .302/.355/.486/.842 falls closer to the 'solid' category than the 'star' category, his post-All Star line of .321/.380/.549/.929 certainly has 'star' written all over it. His post-All Star OPS ranks 12th in the American League.
For players twenty-four years of age and younger, it is Evan Longoria and Billy Butler and then a big gap down to Asdrubal Cabrera and Gordon Beckham. While Longoria certainly has received and earned more national recognition, the batting lines of the two players is remarkably comparable:
Butler: .302/.355/.486, 42 doubles, 17 home runs
Longoria: .281/.359/.541, 41 doubles, 30 home runs
I doubt that Billy will ever match Longoria's home run numbers, but he might well blow past the Rays' star in on-base percentage over the coming seasons.
When was the last time the Royals could lay claim to having one of the best players of any age group? Beltran is obviously the answer, so it has been almost six years.
Is it out of line to expect Butler second half numbers of this season to be his full season numbers for 2010? And probably with more power yet? I don't think so. In fact, I would be willing to bet on it.
Is Billy Butler becoming a star enough to make the Royals contenders? Nope, not even close.
Butler will be a hitting star, but he won't be Joe Mauer and even teamed with Morneau and Kubel, that is probably not enough to get the Twins into the playoffs. Still, one offensive star is closer to respectability than zero, so in that respect, Kansas City is one step closer to competing than they have been since 2003.
The Royals have a myriad of problems. They are poorly coached and managed. Their front office has bumbled their way through the season and spent the majority of the summer in 'cover your *ss' mode instead of addressing the problems fo the organization.
That said, Kansas City has Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria and Billy Butler: three players that would play for every team in baseball. While that is not enough to compete in 2009 or 2010, it is progress.
Read 9 Comments... >> |
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Written by Craig Brown
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Tuesday, 08 September 2009 00:00 |
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It's Tuesday (and thanks to this blogging software, it's the second time I'm typing this) and that means that Alex Gordon is now tied to the Royals through the 2013 season. He needed to stay in Omaha for 20 days and the seventh was day number 20. So now, his free agency has been delayed for a year.
I'm not sure there are any winners in this situation. Gordon is unhappy as a Royal (can you blame him?) and would probably be better off with a fresh start with a new team. This whole service time debacle is simply the last straw. Now that he's under club control for four years instead of three, I wonder if that pumps his value ever so slightly. If the Royals were to deal him this winter, they would most certainly be selling low. But maybe that extra year makes him a little more enticing. Interesting...
I’m always pleasantly surprised how many stories a 100 loss team can turn out in a given year. This year is no exception. The Royals are sinking to new depths, but they always make it interesting.
-- Did you read the Star’s interview with General Manager Dayton Moore in Friday’s paper? Give him credit - his team stinks, but he’s more than willing to spread the blame.
What’s interesting (or troubling, depending on your perspective) is that Manager Trey Hillman will most definitely return for the 2010 season.
“I think Trey has done an exceptional job under the circumstances”
The circumstances are, of course, injuries and underperformance. The latter circumstance is laughable. We’ve been over it before, but it was underscored by my trip to the K on Monday afternoon. As I scanned the Angels lineup, I realized that if you took anyone from their starting nine (with the exception of Jeff Mathis, who was subbing for Mike Napoli) and placed them on the Royals, they would immediately be either the best or second best hitter on the team. Eight Angels are better than just about anyone the Royals can send to the plate. (The exception here is obviously Billy Butler who crushed two home runs on Monday.)
The Royals didn’t underperform in 2009. They were simply a bad team.
When Dayton talks “underperformance” he’s basically wiping his hands of the disaster of this year. That would be great, except he’s the archetecht of said disaster. He’s trying to absolve himself from any responsibility. That’s troubling. But it certainly doesn’t bother Papa Glass, who extended his contract.
Anyway, I’m not too torn up about Hillman coming back for ’10. If we’ve learned anything this season it’s that the Royals are at least another three years from even thinking about challenging. Three years. I’ll view Hillman as a caretaker manager for 2010. He’s simply keeping the seat warm for someone with a little more moxie who can step in and guide this team. I just don’t see Hillman in charge of this team if they are ever competitive.
-- The rest of the Star’s article on Moore wasn’t really all that interesting. Although this quote caught my eye.
“Is it Trey’s fault that in giving a young Billy Butler the opportunity to play first base, that we’ve had numerous 3-6-3 opportunities for a double play — and can’t execute that?"
I’m sorry, but this infuriates me. Why is Moore throwing Butler under the bus here? Does he not realize that Butler’s development as a ballplayer is one of only two positive things you can cite on this season. And the 3-6-3 double play? Is Moore being serious?
I’ve watched a ton of baseball, and if I had to guess, I’d say the 3-6-3 double play is the rarest of infield, ground ball double plays. Unfortunately, I don’t have the numbers of 3-6-3 double play opportunities. However, I do have the numbers of successful 3-6-3 double plays.
Billy Butler has been involved in two 3-6-3 double plays this year. OK, that doesn’t sound like a lot. But let’s get some perspective. Here’s how Butler compares to some of the top defensive first basemen in the game:
Kendry Morales has turned seven 3-6-3 double plays Mark Teixeira has turned two 3-6-3 double plays Miguel Cabrera has turned one 3-6-3 double play Adrian Gonzalez has turned two 3-6-3 double plays
Anyway, I don’t think the Royals have lost a ton of outs because of Butler’s lack of ability on the ultra-rare 3-6-3 double play.
Why would Moore single out Butler and a rare defensive play? It’s strange, isn’t it? There are so many things wrong with this team and this is what Moore chooses to cite in an interview.
It was interesting in Monday’s game when Butler did have an opportunity to turn the 3-6-3 double play, but it didn’t happen. That’s because he wisely stepped on the bag for the first out and got the runner that was on first in a rundown. Poor Butler. That probably cost him a cool million in arbitration. If Dayton Moore is noticing things like this, it has to be important.
-- I’ll never tire of pointing out how horrible Mike Jacobs has been this year. It’s part of my crusade to persuade the front office he should be non-tendered at first opportunity this winter. Here’s the latest:
Worst percentage of scoring runners from third with less than two outs (minimum 20 opportunities)
Mike Jacobs - 24% Joe Crede - 27% Lyle Overbay - 28% Ichiro - 29% Nick Green - 32%
The major league average is 52%.
I will give Jacobs some credit… He bounced a ball between the hole at first and second base in the game on Monday to score a runner from third.
Yippee.
-- The Royals finally brought in some reinforcements for the bullpen when they recalled Dusty Hughes, Victor Marte and Carlos Rosa.
It simply boggles the mind that the Royals kept trotting the same crap from the bullpen night after night when everyone (except maybe Dayton Moore) knew that they were horribly overmatched.
These moves should have been made in July.
-- And of course the new guys get thrown into the fire straight away which left the bullpen bare behind Zack Greinke on Saturday. Yosh Yabuta is the latest to sabotage Greinke’s Cy Young chances.
That’s one thing that’s been a total team effort this year. Read 6 Comments... >> |
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Written by Clark Fosler
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Friday, 04 September 2009 08:48 |
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The Royals traded pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez to the Texas Rangers for catcher Manny Pina and outfielder Tim Smith. Both of those players had advanced up to AA ball in the Rangers' system this season. The trade brings a close to a bizarre year for Gutierrez, who had risen from a 33rd round pick in 2005 to one of the organization's best starting pitching prospects.
It all started last fall with an assault conviction against Gutierrez and continued on during the spring when Gutierrez, under the advice of his new agent - some guy named Scott Boras, begged to differ with the Royals' rehabilitation plans for a minor injury (shoulder?), that led to a suspension of sorts. All that delayed the 22 year old righthander's season debut until July 28th.
Eight games and a month later, after putting up a 1.65 earned run average in 27 innings, striking out 25 and walking just 7, Gutierrez was sent packing. For a pretty decent (and entertaining) discussion of this trade, go here. For the purposes of our discussion, cross another name off the list of of Royals Authority Top 10 pitching prospect list. Let's take a look at what happened to that group this season.
1. Dan Cortes - A 3.92 ERA in his second AA season was hardly inspiring. Nor were the 57 strikeouts in 80 innings coupled with 50 walks. He was sent off to Seattle in the Yuniesky Betancourt trade and has posted an ERA north of five for the Mariners' AA team.
2. Carlos Rosa - Nearly traded for Mike Jacobs, then turned into a reliever in spring training, we pretty much all expected Rosa to be in the majors by now. Instead, Rosa suffered through a terrible May in which he allowed 20 runs in 14 innings and despite a good June, even better July and a tolerable August, the Royals have yet to give him a shot in their incredibly awful bullpen. For the year, Carlos had 80 strikeouts in 71 innings, having walked 32 and allowed AAA batters to hit .258 against him.
3. Danny Duffy - It has become kind of the 'in' thing to downgrade Duffy this year, but I still can see a dominant lefty starter in the making. Pitching in Advanced A Wilmington, Duffy has struck out 117 batters in 120 innings on his way to a 3.13 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .232 against him, after managing just a .193 average last year in Burlington.
4. Danny Gutierrez - see above
5. Mike Montgomery - Everyone loves last year's supplemental first round pick and I do, too. After posting a 2.17 ERA in 12 games for Low A Burlington, the Royals promoted Montgomery to Advanced A where he has posted a 2.35 ERA in eight starts. Mike's combined stats for the year: 104 innings pitched, allowed 76 hits, walked 35 and struck out 92, while allowed batters to hit just .202. Nice.
6. Julio Pimentel - He has a broken elbow. Really, it broke - literally.
7. Kelvin Herrera - Just 19 years old, many were expecting some big things from Herrera this season. On May 6th, Kelvin debuted for Burlington, and pitched five shutout innings, allowing just three hits, and has been on the disabled list ever since.
8. Tim Melville - For a high school draftee whose first exposure to professional ball has been all the way up in A ball, Melville has done alright this season: 4.00 ERA in 92 innings, allowing 42 walks and 85 hits. In Timothy's first 36 innings, he struck out just 25 batters, but has fanned 49 in his last 50 innings. All things considered, this was pretty good first year for Melville.
9. Blake Wood - Certainly the next starting prospect to be converted to the bullpen, Blake struggled again in AA. Opponents battered him for a .302 average, after hitting .283 against Wood last year at the same level. There was talk of Wood having closer-type potential several years back and, given his struggles in 31 AA starts, a look at relieving certainly seems in order.
10. Alex Caldera - Failed to build on an outstanding 2008 in Low A and instead posted a 4.99 ERA in 26 High A starts this year. Although Alex's post-All Star earned run average was almost three runs less, his strikeouts dropped off the map (just 34 in 69 innings after fanning 64 in 63 innings prior to the break). I guess in an organization where 'shoulder fatigue' and 'dead arm' syndrome abound, a guy that had made 51 consecutive starts over two seasons is worth something.
Keep in mind, the above Top Ten list was from the pre-season and has not been adjusted for what has transpired in 2009 (that's what the 2010 Royals Authority Annual is for). Certainly there will be some major changes, but sadly there is starter sitting in AAA or AA that missed the list this spring and will make it next spring.
What you see from the above is that until the Royals sign Aaron Crow, there is no starter above A ball that you can forecast as a front line starter. While you can make the case that the rotation is the last spot the Royals need help, it would be kind of nice if there were some live arms in Omaha to compete for the number four and five rotation spots in 2010.
Of course, I may not be trusting the process enough. Read 4 Comments... >> |
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Written by Craig Brown
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Wednesday, 02 September 2009 00:00 |
Does anyone really care about this team anymore? That’s not meant to be rhetorical. It’s a serious question. Aside from Zack Greinke starts every fifth day, is there reason to watch?
I ask these questions and yet, here I am, close to midnight, watching this crap. Again.
Billy Butler remains the only reason to watch the Royals when they’re at bat. The only reason. How about a standup triple? That was outstanding. Credit to him for busting it to second for what was an obvious double. Butler isn’t exactly Usain Bolt, but he was motoring hard when he went around first, and when the ball took an advantageous carom off the center field wall, he had his triple. Would you be surprised if I told you that was his first triple in over 1,000 plate appearances?
Of course, Butler was on third with one out and Mike Jacobs couldn’t get a fly ball to get him home. Then Alberto Callaspo grounded out as well. Figures. At this stage in the season, it would be more surprising if the Royals actually got the runner home from third with less than two outs.
The next scoring opportunity came in the sixth when the Royals loaded the bases with nobody out. Bases loaded. Nobody out.
And up steps Mike Jacobs.
Jeeeeeeeeezzzzzz.
He grounds into a fielders choice.
Thankfully, Callaspo is something of a professional hitter, so he’s able to make the A’s pay with a two-run single.
Watching the Royals and the A’s try to generate offense is tiring.
After Callaspo’s RBIs, the only issue left to settle was the nightly text message vote. Tuesday’s question was, “Who was the best Royal outfielder of the 2000’s?” The choices were Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, David DeJesus and Jermaine Dye. DeJesus won the vote with something like 36%. Huh? That’s not only the wrong answer, I would submit it’s the worst possible choice of the four.
Crazy.
Do you think John Gibbons had a vote? The guy seems hell bent to get his money’s worth while he’s in charge. Four pitchers in the seventh? And all four put at least one runner on base! Yet somehow the Royals escaped the inning allowing only a single run.
I did not stick around for the eighth. Sometimes, you just have to know when to say when.
Read 8 Comments... >> |
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Written by Craig Brown
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Monday, 31 August 2009 15:24 |
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The Kansas City Star reported on Monday that the Royals and General Manager Dayton Moore have reached an agreement on a contract extension that will keep him in Kansas City through the 2014 season. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
During his tenure with the Royals, The General Manager has shown zero aptitude in constructing a major league roster. Let’s take a step back and examine the major league moves since the end of the 2008 season:
-- Acquired Mike Jacobs for Leo Nunez
-- Acquired Coco Crisp for Ramon Ramirez
-- Signed Kyle Farnsworth to a two-year contract
-- Signed Horacio Ramirez to a one-year contract
-- Signed Doug Waechter to a one-year contract
-- Signed Willie Bloomquist to a two-year contract
-- Signed Juan Cruz to a two-year contract
-- Signed Zack Greinke to a four-year contract
-- Acquired Ryan Freel for a PTBNL
-- Acquired Josh Anderson for a PTBNL
-- Acquired Yuniesky Betancourt
And a couple of minor league moves that had an impact on the big leagues:
-- Signed Luis Hernandez to a minor league deal
-- Claimed Tug Hulett off waivers
-- Signed Sidney Ponson to a minor league deal
-- Signed Bruce Chen to a minor league deal
That makes 14 players who made their Royals debut this year. (Greinke obviously isn’t included since he was already here.) Those 14 have a combined WAR of -0.7.
Are you kidding me? Negative 0.7? How is this even possible?
Of the 14 newcomers, only four (Crisp, Ponson, Farnsworth and Chen) have a positive WAR. Only four players The General Manager added to his team are above replacement value at their position. The three pitchers are barely above replacement value - ranging between 0.6 and 0.3. The rest seven of them are worse than what we would expect from a replacement level player.
Do you know how much The General Manager committed to this below average bunch? Do you want to know? Are you sitting down?
$20.34 million
The General Manager took over $20 million and pissed it away on utility guys, fringe players and Triple-A back-ups.
I thought last year’s team, with it’s five middle infielders, was a disaster from a roster-building stand point. This year’s roster is even worse. There’s no rhyme or reason behind any of the above moves and most were done with a blind eye to other, less expensive alternatives. You want to know why this year has been a "disappointment?" Revisit that list. How can anyone think the majority of those players can help a big league team?
I have lost faith in The General Manager to put a quality product together to compete. Over the last two years, he’s illustrated that he lacks the vision to construct a roster that makes any kind of sense. Aside from Gil Meche, his free agent acquisitions have been beyond horrible. Jose Guillen alone has crippled this franchise from the moment he reported to camp with 20 extra pounds before the 2008 season. I’m now looking to this winter with a great deal of apprehension - I have to hope that The General Manager decides to stay clear of the free agent (and trade) market, because he’s capable of doing more damage.
We all know the only way this team will get better is through internal development. That means the draft and the minor leagues. The General Manager has been in charge of this team for three drafts. (Maybe four, depending on how Luke Hochevar performs in his latest start, this can change. Some days, The General Manager will take credit. Others, not so much.) In his first two drafts, he took high school bats. We’re still a couple of years away before we can render judgement on those. (Although if Eric Hosmer doesn’t get those glasses soon…)
Besides, do we really need to be reminded at how bare the minor league cupboard was when the current General Manager took over? He’s undertaken a complete overhaul. Not because he’s some ego maniac who needs his fingerprints over everything. But because the minor league system needed a complete overhaul. Of this year’s top 10 prospects (according to Baseball America) only four had played above Single-A. And of those four, only one (Dan Cortes) was acquired by The General Manager.
It takes time to build a minor league system. And because of the Glass Family and their hamfisted sense of timing, The General Manager was behind the curve in making his mark on the system.
Then it should be noted that The General Manager isn’t the guy who is actually making the decisions on draft day. That chore falls to the scouting director. The Royals fired Deric Ladiner following the 2008 draft and replaced him with JJ Picollo. Undoubtedly, this move was made because past Ladiner draft picks (both before and after the current General Manager arrived) were progressing too slowly. Does replacing the scouting director buy The General Manager more time in the eyes of ownership? I hope not, because that amounts to giving the GM a mulligan. And we all know how that turns out. If anything, this move should bring the heat - guys were progressing slowly? Now they should be moving along at a fast clip if Picollo and The General Manager hope to stick around.
A lot of fans have had a good laugh this year about The General Manager and his drafts. They point to the lone bright spots on this team - Zack Greinke and Billy Butler - and say that they’re not guys who were drafted by the current regime. This is true, but it should serve as a reminder of how long it takes for high school talent to develop. Both were probably rushed to the big leagues with Greinke (class of 2002) finally reaching his potential and Butler (class on 2004) just now scratching the surface. It’s taken roughly five years to get these players to where they are solid major leaguers. It takes time for a farm system to develop talent.
The General Manager had been operating under a contract that was to expire at the end of the 2010 season. There is always something to avoid having “lame duck” status. When an executive or manager is operating in the final year of a contract, it’s going to be uncomfortable for everyone. It eventually becomes a distraction with people asking questions about next year and it paralyzes an organization with inertia. Why make moves that may come to fruition in three years when you don’t even know if you’re going to be around in a few months. Of course, these guys are professionals… They won’t stop working just because they’re nearing the end of a contract. However, it is human nature to worry about your own security when it is in doubt. And when you’re worried about your future, it most definitely has an impact on how you behave in the present. No matter what anyone says, it has an impact.
The nature of the draft demands that The General Manager be given a fair shake in evaluating his overall performance. It’s entirely possible we’ll need more info than will be available through 2010 before rendering judgement. But four years? That seems a excessive given the missteps that have been made over the last 12 months.
On the positive side, it’s entirely possible that The General Manager’s legacy in Kansas City will be the fact that he had a crow bar big enough to pry open the wallet of David Glass. The increase in payroll and the infusion of cash in the draft and the international scouting department is, on the surface, laudable. The problem has been how The General Manager has allocated the money.
However, the timing of this extension is awful. The Royals are skidding toward another 100 loss season. The General Manager has developed a siege mentality and is rambling on about “The Process.” Every single off-season move (excepting the Greinke extension) has been an unmitigated disaster that has made this team worse. Nothing that has happened over the last year would indicate that The General Manager is worthy of an extension. Sure, it gives the organization some stability, removing the “lame duck” in front of his name, but at what cost? It seems that if you really wanted to extend the General Manager, you could at least wait until the winter… After the bitter taste of this season has faded.
And four years? Those are extensions for winners. A GM can get something like that after winning a title. This is grossly excessive. If you decide patience is the way to go and there were outside factors (i.e. injuries) that prevented this year's team from reaching it's potential, then you extend the contract by a year. There's plenty of evidence that says The General Manager is in over his head. Give him enough rope... One more year should do the trick. Four? Damn, that's wrong.
When Dayton Moore went on his rant about “The Process,” he sounded like someone barricaded inside the bunker, who has lost touch with what’s really going on outside. The General Manager is fortunate the owner of his team seems to have a similar tenuous grasp on reality.
Read 7 Comments... >> |
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Written by Craig Brown
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Monday, 31 August 2009 00:00 |
We’ve seen performances like this from Zack Greinke before, but they never get old. It’s simply a joy to watch him pitch when he’s on. And this year… He’s been on! (Can you imagine what this year would be like without Greinke? On second thought, don't.)
The latest gem was probably his best performance to date. And with nothing for us fans to root for down the stretch, we need to turn all our energy and karma to Greinke as he prepares to put the finishing touches on what should be his Cy Young season.
There is no way any unbiased voter can watch Sunday’s performance and not declare Zack Greinke to be the best pitcher in all of baseball. No way.
If the season ended today (and there’s a bunch of us who do in fact wish the season would come to a merciful end) Greinke would be the Cy Young award winner. If he doesn’t win the award, I’ll write my congressman. They hold hearings on steroids, why can’t they do the same for people who were robbed individual recognition due to shortsightedness and stupidity?
Anyway, long time readers will know that I love the pitcher’s Game Score. Some of you may even recall a couple of years ago when I created the “Gil Gauge” as a way of measuring his production and viability as a Cy Young candidate. On the meter I created for Meche, I had him as a Cy Young contender if his average game score was better than 55. That wasn’t some arbitrary number… I did some research of past Cy Young award winners and found that if you had an average Game Score of 55 or better, you usually were in the top three.
In my mind, the Game Score is not unlike any other rate stat (like ERA or FIP) in that pitchers can have great games and they can have bad games. However, the cream will ultimately rise to the top. If 50 is an average Game Score - which it is - then the best pitchers in the league will have an average Game Score better than 50. The elite, will be much higher.
Greinke’s average Game Score is 62.
That’s unreal.
For your consideration, I submit the pitchers with the four highest average Game Scores this summer:
Greinke - 62 Halladay - 59 Verlander - 59 Hernandez - 59
It’s not even close. And it follows every other conventional stat (aside from wins) that we know about Greinke’s stellar season.
The top average Game Score this year belongs to the Giants Tim Lincecum. In fact, three NL pitchers have higher average Game Scores than Greinke
Lincecum - 65 Haren - 63 Carpenter - 63
These guys are all fine pitchers, but I have to think that the weakness of National League bats (particularly in the West) have to help inflate Game Scores. Certainly, the Game Score is not the end all, be all of pitching stats. It’s just something I like to look at when measuring overall effectiveness.
Moving forward, here’s where Greinke currently ranks in the more “traditional” stats that voters will be looking at.
ERA - 1st WHIP - 1st SO - 2nd Shutouts - 1st CG - 1st Wins - T 5th
That Win total is a bummer. If that ultimately costs him this award, I’ll never acknowledge the existence of the BBWAA (the writers who vote for the award) ever again. (I'll do that by never purchasing a newspaper. I mean it!) There’s plenty of information available - not to mention common sense - that says Wins are the dumbest stat in the world to apply to a pitcher.
It’s ironic actually. A team sport celebrates the individual. Yet, it is a team stat that may cost a player an individual award. To hold Greinke accountable for his low win total is the same as holding him accountable for global warming. The dude has pitched his best for most of the season (as illustrated by his outstanding average Game Score) and yet his teammates don’t show up on the nights he’s pitching.
If Greinke doesn’t get this award, I’ll place the blame fully on the front office regime (remember, I’m not talking about them anymore) and the lack of talent they placed around their star.
I saw a poll from Sports Illustrated or somewhere like that, that asked AL managers who the best pitcher was in their league. Greinke finished second, to Halladay. Unreal. I think it just goes to show how powerful perceptions are in this game. Halladay is a great pitcher - no doubt about it - but he’s not as great as Greinke. Not this year. Yet, major league managers, the guys who watch baseball all the time, can’t get the question correct. How do we expect sportswriters to come up with the right answer?
(Although I will say with a great deal of certainty, the sportswriters in Kansas City are much smarter than the manager in Kansas City.)
Anyway, there is always some optimism when it comes to these awards, that maybe this will be the year where some more evolved statistics are used to evaluate performance.
K/9 - 3rd K/BB - 2nd ERA+ - 1st FIP - 1st WAR - 1st
Greinke outpaces Halladay in every single statistical category I’ve mentioned in this article but one. Halladay has a 6.33 K/BB ratio, while Greinke has a 5.05 K/BB ratio. Greinke has more strikeouts on average, but he also has more walks than Halladay.
I mention Halladay because the conventional wisdom is he’s the favorite for this award. The funny thing is, if voting were held today, I’m not sure he should even finish in the top three. For my money, the one to watch is a pitcher who also threw in this recently completed series - King Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has positioned himself as a legitimate contender after a recent string of starts. Of course, both Greinke and Hernandez have been helped by the Halladay tank job that is currently underway. (I tend to discount trade rumors and the effect they have on ballplayers, but have you ever seen someone so depressed to not get dealt? He was so certain he was out of Toronto, he mentally checked out after the deadline. It can’t help that he sees Cliff Lee pitching mowing down overmatched hitters in a weaker league.)
There’s a month left in the season, so there’s still plenty of time for a challenger to arise to try to knock the crown off Greinke. However, if he stays focused on the prize, there’s no way anyone will take the Cy Young from Zack. No way.
Zack Greinke for Cy Young! Read 6 Comments... >> |
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Written by Clark Fosler
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Friday, 28 August 2009 12:23 |
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I was in Safeco Field last night to watch Kyle Davies pitch against the Mariners. Well, that makes it sound like I traveled halfway across the country to watch Kyle Davies pitch - that's not true. Obviously, I traveled halfway across the country to watch Josh Anderson play centerfield.
Using some new mechanics designed to give him better fastball control, Davies went six innings and allowed just two runs. Kyle hurled 100 pitches, 64 of them for strikes, and was pulled at just the right time by Trey Hillman as his velocity declined throughout the sixth inning. It was the third time in the five starts since Davies' recall that he allowed two runs or less in a start.
It should be noted, however, that Davies enjoyed a fair amount of luck. The Mariners hit two foul balls down the left field line that missed being homers by maybe six feet total and was the recipient of a nice defensive play by David DeJesus in the first inning when DeJesus turned a Franklin Gutierrez double into a single and an out.
Still, Davies displayed a very good curveball at times and mixed his changeup and fastball nicely to keep Mariner hitters off balance, at least to some extent. He struck out five and now has 22 strikeouts in 26 innings since his recall from Omaha.
We have, however, seen this all before: exactly one year ago to be specific. We all remember that great September of 2008 when Kyle Davies solidified himself as 2009's number three starter and we all know how that turned out.
Davies, at times, seems like a legitimate middle of the rotation starter. At other times, however, he seems very hittable or, worse, just plain unable to keep the ball within reach of the catcher.
We had great seats last night, ten rows directly behind home, and Davies does not 'pass the eye test'. His stuff seems very average, except for an occasional great curve. This was the second time within a month that I was very close to the field and behind the plate for a Davies' start and I have come away from both starts wondering if Davies might really be more suited for relief.
While his eventual role is up for debate, let me go on record as saying it will take more than another great September for this writer to put Kyle Davies into the 2010 starting rotation. Read 3 Comments... >> |
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Written by Craig Brown
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Thursday, 27 August 2009 08:59 |
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Not a thing of interest is going on with the Royals these days. (Aside from the greatness of Zack Greinke. Although it's fascinating that this Royals team can even suck the enjoyment out of that.) So I thought I'd just crunch some numbers. Maybe we can generate some discussion.
- The Royals home record of 26-41 is the worst in baseball. The Reds have the same amount of wins, but they've played six fewer home contests. The average team has 34 home wins.
- The Royals pythag record is 50-76. This means that given the amount of runs they've scored and the runs they've allowed, they should only have two more wins than they actually have. Or another way to look at it is, yes, they are this bad.
- The Royals are 5-2 in extra inning games. Frankly, this is surprising, given the state of the bullpen.
- Over the final 36 games the Royals play the A's and Indians a total of six times. That's significant because they're the only teams on the schedule who are under .500. (That's assuming the Twins, who are currently a game under, win a couple.) The Royals are getting crushed by winning teams this year. They are 14-38 against teams that are better than .500.
- The Royals have scored three or fewer runs in 62 games. Their record in those games is 10-52.
- The Royals have allowed one run in a game 14 times. Incredibly, they've been shutout in three of those games. Some how, they're not the only team that has lost three 1-0 games. The A's and Diamondbacks have also accomplished this. No team has lost four 1-0 games.
- The Royals are 40-0 when leading entering the ninth.
- I said I wasn't going to say his name, but do you remember how a certain front office exectutive said the Royals would play better over the second half? Well, since the All-Star Break, the Royals are 11-27. That's a .289 winning percentage. Compare that to a first half record of 37-51 and a winning percentage of .420.
- The Royals will need to go 21-15 the rest of the season to improve on their first half winning percentage.
Eighth Inning Fun
- You know how it seems the other team always scores in the eighth? That's no mirage. Of the Royals 126 games, they've allowed at least one run in the eighth 49 times. That makes the eighth the most frequent frame where the Royals allow a run.
- If the whole game consisted of only the eighth inning, the Royals would allow 7.07 runs per game.
- The Royals are 38-10 when leading entering the eighth.
Read 2 Comments... >> |
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Written by Clark Fosler
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Wednesday, 26 August 2009 07:23 |
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No lamenting the past, present or future today - although it should be noted that I had a dream last night where I threw a styrofoam cup of Diet Coke in Dayton Moore's general direction during a press conference - just a series of quick updates from around the Royals' organizaiton.
- The big news, of course, was Zack Grienke's record setting 15 strikeout performance last night. Zack was routinely touching 97 mph with his fastball last night and was still throwing 96 mph in the 8th inning. I encourage you to check out Greinke's pitching data over at Brooks Baseball, paying particular attention to the 'All Game Pitch Data' chart near the bottom. You will note that after the first inning, Zack threw above 95 mph and below 75 mph in every single inning. Yeah, the kid's pretty good.
- Don't look now, but David DeJesus is on his way back to his usual numbers. After going two for four last night, David's line sits at .274/.346/.432/.778, which is approaching the same numbers we always see out of him. In 2007, DeJesus was rated as 2.7 wins above replacement level. In 2008 he was, once again, 2.7 wins above replacement level. His current 2009 WAR? You guessed it: 2.7.
- Last night in Omaha, Lenny DiNardo pitched 8.1 shutout innings as he combined with Carlos Rosa to shutout Oklahoma City. That is noteworthy about the effort was DiNardo's ability to overcome FOUR Omaha errors - two by Alex Gordon. The Royals won 1-0 on a J.R. House second inning homer, by the way.
- In Advanced A ball action, Derrick Robinson had a triple and a home run for Wilmington. Robinson has shown virtually no improvement at the plate during his time in the organization, but it is interesting that after hitting no homers in 2008 and none in the first four months of 2009, Robinson now has five in the month of August. Improvement or mirage? Time will tell.
- Also for Wilmington, Danny Duffy notched his ninth win of the year by allowing two runs over six innings and lowering his ERA to 3.21. If Aaron Crow does not sign until sometime next spring, who gets to the majors first? Crow or Duffy?
- One other Blue Rock note. Eric Hosmer is still sitting out, awaiting the delivery of new prespection glasses. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?
- Trey Hillman actually thought Josh Anderson was seasoned enough to get a start in centerfield last night. Meanwhile, Mitch Maier continues to hit, with two more last night. The question for 2010 is not whether Anderson can play (he can't) but can Maier play?
- On a personal note, this writer is off to the great Northwest to witness two Seattle/Kansas City games at Safeco Field. So, Friday's column will be fresh off a Kyle Davies' start. How far would you fly to watch Kyle Davies pitch? I bet I have you beat. Luckily on Saturday, we'll get Gil Meche.
Read 7 Comments... >> |
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Page 12 of 14 |
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Final AL Central
| TEAM |
W |
L |
GB |
| Minnesota |
87 |
76 |
-- |
| Detroit |
86 |
77 |
5.5 |
Chicago
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79 |
83 |
7.5 |
Cleveland
|
65 |
97 |
21.5 |
Kansas City
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65 |
97 |
21.5 |
There's always next year.
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