Today, we continue on our quest to compare the Kansas City Royals on a position by position basis to their American League Central counterparts.  

Our last post revealed that while the Royals have some issues behind the plate, they actually are not much worse and, in fact, often times better at the catching position than most of the division with the obvious exclusion of Joe Mauer and the Minnesota Twins.  Let's see how they stack up at first base.

The Royals saw Billy Butler emerge as a legitimate offensive force in the second half of 2009, so it would be reasonable to expect Kansas City's offensive numbers at this position to grow.   Still, it is important to keep in mind that this is a division with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau, so Butler has some stiff competition to keep up with.   That said, with Billy just 23 years old and already in the middle of the division pack, there is certainly reason for optimism.  

Of course, first base also includes something called defense:

RZR = Revised Zone Rating (courtesy Hardball Times)

UZR/150 = Runs above or below average over 150 games (courtesy Fangraphs)

I did not include anyone from Cleveland as they played Ryan Garko (traded) at first for 47 games, Victor Martinez (traded) for 44 games and Andy Marte (likely non-tender) for 43 more.

As you can see, Butler has a ways to go defensively at first base, although Dayton Moore should be comforted by the fact that Butler did lead the division in double plays started (11).   (Sarcasm intended) 

While the title refers to first base, I thought this was also the most relevant place to compare the designated hitter position, too.  It is noteworthy that with the trade of Jim Thome, no team employs a truly full-time DH in the division.   The Royals' Mike Jacobs actually logged more games at the position (102) than any other player in the AL Central.   As you might imagine, given that fact, the Royals have something of an offensive deficit as a result.

YIKES!   Is there anybody out there that wants to tender Mike Jacobs a contract?

The next worst team, Detroit, pretty much used the designated hitter spot as a rotating, part-time position (Marcus Thames started there for 50 games, Carlos Guillen for 33 and Aubrey Huff for 28)and the numbers reflect that.  On the other end of the spectrum, the three Twins with the most appearances at DH were Jason Kubel (80), Justin Morneau (12) and Joe Mauer (28), all three of whom were basically full-timers at other positions.

Frankly, no one in the division should be overjoyed about the runs created by the only position in baseball that does not require a glove, but the Royals were particularly woeful.  

Summary

If Billy Butler was thirty-two instead of twenty-three, the solution would seem obvious:  move Butler to designated hitter, where his bat would give the Royals the most potent DH in the division and go find a decent offensive first baseman who can field.   However, just one season into being a full-time major league first baseman, one almost has to give Butler a chance to become at least average in the field.  Besides, on a team that is defensively challenged in so many areas, fixing the defense at first base has to be a pretty low priority.

The solution?  Well, it is not named Mike Jacobs.  

Given the current contract situation, it might temporarily be Jose Guillen.   As much as I am tempted to just dump him for anything (surely we could get Tyler Lumsden back in return - see:  ANYTHING!), Jose is likely to net more in a trade come next July.   At that point, you can hope a half-season of DH work has put at least a little pop back in his bat and with just a half-season left on his contract, some desperate fringe contender might give up a couple of minor leaguers (not real prospects, but something).

My long-term answer involves another current Royal, but we will save that until after we have reviewed all the positions.

Things figure to be slow for the next several weeks for the Royals.  Transactions never happen during the post-season. 

Like the Royals front office staff gathering in Arizona to create a road map for this winter, I figured now was an ideal time to outline the team’s financial commitment for 2010.  Seeing where the Royals are in a fiscal sense, help us realize the potential for what they can do with roster in the months ahead.

Unlike last winter, when there was plenty of talk about the upcoming payroll, the Royals have been silent on their budget situation.  In 2009, the Royals had an Opening Day payroll of $70.5 million.  I’m thinking the team will either stand pat and not increase the budget, or they’ll offer a modest - in the $5 million range - increase.  Until we hear otherwise, let’s assume the budget will be set at a nice, round $75 million.

With that in mind, let’s move forward.

Here’s a chart detailing all of the Royals known contracts for next season.  The numbers come from Cot’s.

The numbers for Crisp and Olivo represent the buyouts on options the club holds.  I’m sure the Royals would love to bring Crisp back, but with his injury and the fact it’s possible he won’t be ready to play until next May, there’s no way the Royals pop for $8 million for the center fielder.  If the Royals and Olivo agree to his mutual option, that adds $3.3 million to the total.  If someone forced me to make a prediction, I’d say that the Royals are interested in bringing him back at that price, but Olivo may decline his option and test the market where he could potentially make more money.

Now, let’s look at the Royals who are eligible for arbitration, along with their estimated contract for next year.

Before we go further, a note about my estimates:  These are estimates.  If you disagree, leave a note in the comments.  I came up with these numbers based on their contracts last season and any comparable arbitration cases I could find.  For example, Mike Jacobs earned $3.25 million as a first year, arbitration eligible player last year.  Alex Gordon is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and sadly, has worse career offensive numbers than Jacobs at similar points in their careers.  Add in the injury and I think he’s due less money.

Also, at this point it has to be noted that there are some players who won’t be tendered contracts.  If that’s the case, they become free agents.  John Buck, Mike Jacobs, John Bale and Doug Waechter are the names that jump out from this list as potential non-tenders.  Obviously, the $25 million is an estimate.  Some guys on this list will earn less, some will earn more and others may be traded or non-tendered.  This is a snapshot of where this team is right now.

Assuming the Royals bring everyone back - and past evidence (Jimmy Gobble, Ross Gload) says they will - the Royals will commit around $75 million for 20 players.

Of course, a full roster is 25 players and I have yet to mention Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena, Luke Hochevar and Jamey Wright. 

The Royals control the contracts of Butler, Maier and Pena.  Each of them will earn in the neighborhood of $500,000.  Yes, Butler is better than the other two, but that’s the system the players agreed to when they signed the collective bargaining agreement.  Butler will make his money eventually.

Callaspo could qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two.”  If he does, add another $2 million to the payroll.  If he doesn’t and the Royals renew his contract, figure him for around $500,000. 

Hochevar’s initial contract has expired, but he’s not eligible for arbitration.  He earned roughly $1.3 million last year but under the collective bargaining agreement, the Royals can slash his salary by 20%.  Wage cuts are something that happened 30 years ago, so even though Hochevar largely stunk up the joint, I doubt the Royals decrease his paycheck.  However, he’s not getting a raise, either. 

So for the guys not eligible for arbitration, the Royals will commit around $4 million. 

Here’s how everything totals up:

The Royals haven’t made a trade or a signing and already they’re $5 million over my estimated budget.  Hell, the best case budget scenario has to be $80 million, doesn’t it?  I just can’t see this team popping the wallets open any wider.

When Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman try to tell you that injuries were the reason the team lost 97 games in 2009, it’s because they have to tell you that.  The truth is, this team is fiscally hamstrung by a series of rotten deals and they’re not in a position to do anything of relevance this winter.  No free agent signings, no trades where they add payroll… Nothing.  The injuries of 2009 are an excuse for when they stand pat.

If you’re looking for fireworks this winter, you’ll have to find another team.

Yesterday, Craig began to examine the Royals' roster with an eye towards which players should be brought back for 2010 and which should simply be let go.    His review of the catching situation concluded that John Buck should be non-tendered, while Miguel Olivo's mutual option should be picked up and Brayan Pena retained to be his backup.  That is a conclusion that I also agree with.

While such a move seems to make sense from a contractural/monetary point of view, where does that leave the ballclub in relation to hopes of contending?  

Today, I will examine the Royals versus their Central Division comrades on a position by position basis in an attempt to determine just how close...or how far, this team is from truly contending in the division.   Of course, we will start with the catchers.

Obviously, Minnesota enjoys a huge advantage over the rest of the division as long as they have Joe Mauer catching for them.   As an aside, given the premium position he playss, is Joe Mauer the best player in baseball right now?

After the Twins, however, the Royals' catchers stack up fairly well against the rest of the division, especially with the departures of Victor Martinez from Cleveland and Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers.    Let's take a look at a few more offensive numbers:

Again, after Mauer and the Twins, the Royals catching trioka created more runs than anyone else in the division.   Yes, Olivo-Buck-Pena struck out at a tremendous rate and walked little, but they made up for it (at least partially) by showing more power than anyone that was not born and playing in Minnesota.

Catching is not all offense.  In fact, it is probably the least offensively important position on the diamond.   While the above offensive numbers are for every player that put on the tools of ignorance for a given team in 2009 (and none of the games, by the way, where they played a different position), the defensive statistics below are for just the players who finished the season with a team and are likely to be contributors for that same team next year.

A quick look at the numbers reveal that both Miguel Olivo and Brayan Pena (albeit in limited duty) have some serious issues when it comes to blocking pitches.  

Next to the White Sox, the trio of Royals' catchers were the poorest at throwing out potential basestealers, although not by a dramatic amount.   Still, coupled with the very high wild pitches-passed balls per game marks, Kansas City enjoyed less than stellar defense behind the plate in 2009.

The Conclusion

If the Royals had a slew of dynamic offensive forces in their lineup, then they could afford to dump Olivo and Buck and go out and sign an offensively challenged catcher with a great defensive reputation.   However, we know that Kansas City does not enjoy such a luxury.  Additionally, the options in the off-season are limited, both by the free agent crop and by the financial situation of the organization.

It would be nice to have seen Brayan Pena catch eighty games this year and be able to make an educated guess as to whether he can improve enough behind the plate to be an everyday catcher, but that window of opportunity came and went.

In the end, the Royals can at least hang their hats on the fact that outside of Minnesota, no other team is particularly strong at catcher either.   In that respect, one can make the case that other areas might need more attention this off-season as Kansas City tries to get back into the American League Central conversation.

Errrrr... Not really.

The official word from the Royals Bunker:

The Kansas City Royals today announced the bulk of the Major League coaching staff assignments for the 2010 season.  Manager Trey Hillman’s entire 2009 coaching staff will return intact with the exception of first base coach Rusty Kuntz and bullpen coach John Mizerock.  In addition, Eddie Rodriguez will shift from his 2009 role as a special assignment coach to become Kansas City’s first base coach.

Kuntz, who served the past two seasons as first base coach as well as the outfield and baserunning instructor, will remain in the organization as a special assistant to the general manager/field instructor.  The contract of bullpen coach John Mizerock was not renewed.

Why mess with success?  If the Royals underperformed in 2009, it was obviously Mizerock's fault.

Sorry, but I don't get this.  I guess we'll hear the tired excuse about injuries and whatnot, but Dave Owen was an absolute disaster at third base.  The evidence was so compelling back in June the guy was in over his head.  I haven't crunched the full season numbers, but the Royals were the worst team in baseball at going from first to third on a single and going from second to home.  I place the blame on Owen at third.

You could also question the retention of Kevin Seitzer as the hitting coach.  Granted, he didn't have much to work with in hackers like Miguel Olivo and Mike Jacobs, but as a whole the team didn't really improve.  Team batting average fell 10 points and OBP dropped by two.  Slugging went up eight points from the previous year.  If it was Seitzer's job to tread water, he succeeded.

Keep on, keeping on.

Normally, the end of the regular season and, consequently, the end of the Royals' season, generally comes with a little sadness.   I have woken up on the first Monday after the season and actually missed not be able to see Royals teams that lost 100 games.   This group, not so much.

As Craig mentioned on Friday, this season could not come to a quick enough conclusion for us and virtually every Royals fan still out there.   We learned our lesson from last September when Kansas City went 18-8 and gave us hope for an enjoyable 2009, so we knew that this September would tell us little about what to expect next spring.

Nope, this group will not be missed.

This is a team that had a pitcher in Zack Greinke who posted one of the ten best earned run averages since the introduction of the designated hitter and barely managed to win half the games in which he started.    That simple statistic right there ought to send the front office into overdrive to revamp this squad.

However, given past the trade history and free agent record of the current regime, part of me is scared of what Dayton Moore and crew might actually do if they allowed themselves to go into this mode.   Of course, the other part of me is scared to death that Moore and Company will simply stick by the 'injuries derailed an otherwise promising season' line that they have held for the latter half of the year.

Over the coming months, we will have plenty of time to review the season, focus on the off-season and theorize about 2010.   For now, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that this abomination of a year has mercifully come to an end.

By the way, catch Craig and I on the Royals Authority Show on KCSportsRadio.com tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. and again at 2:00 p.m. because deep down, we still care about the Royals, right?

It's the final weekend of the season and the Royals have the honor of closing the pit known as the Metrodome. (By the way, the new stadium in Minneapolis apparently doens't have a roof.  Yeah, that will be great next April.)

Aside from the final regular season baseball in the Metrodome, the Royals are still playing for something.  Since the Twins are just a game back from the Tigers in the Central, the boys in blue have something to say about the outcome of this race.  Minnesota will need to win at least two of the three to have any chance - they'll have to hope the White Sox win two in Detroit.  It's a long shot, but you never know.

Of course, the only thing that's truly interesting about this series is Zack Greinke's final start will come on Saturday in the nationally televised FOX game.  I have an article up at The Hardball Times that breaks down the Cy Young candidates in the AL.  Lots of graphs and charts to help the voters.

I officially quit on this team after the Farnsworth debacle the other day.  I'm no longer interested in the 2009 Royals. (As far as breakups go, this was easy.)  I need a break from the genius of SABR Trey and the Process of Dayton Moore.  I need less of Yuniesky Betancourt's rancid defense and Mike Jacobs' strikeouts on sliders outside of the strike zone.  I'm tired of watching Miguel Olivo behind the plate and Wee Willie Bloomquist playing nearly everyday.

I do need more Greinke and Billy Butler.  Thanks to those guys for doing their best to salvage a miserable season here in Kansas City.  Your efforts were appreciated and give us a glimmer of hope going into 2010.

Goodbye, 2009.

Good riddance.

Welcome to the end of yet another losing season in Kansas City and, almost predictably, the end of another season with more questions than answers.

Logic would dictate that either you are competing for a playoff berth or finding out what you have to do in order to compete the next year.    The best I can tell, however, is that the Royals do not subscribe to this theory.

Whether it was Ryan Shealy languishing in Omaha last year as Ross Gload slugged his way into the lineup at first base everyday or Kila Kaaihue getting just 24 plate appearances in the month of September, the Royals seem almost fearful to find out if position players can actually play.

Instead of seeing two more months of Shealy and a month of Kaaihue, Dayton Moore decided instead to leave both of those players as question marks, go out and trade a young reliever for a 'known commoditiy' in whiff artist Mike Jacobs.  

The Moore regime is not the only hierarchy to have a fear of the unknown.   His predecessor, Allard Baird and manager Buddy Bell pretty much refused to give a young player a shot.   We all remember a once highly regarded prospect in Justin Huber sitting on the bench in the majors for a month while aging Doug Mientkiewicz toiled at first base.   However, how many remember Matt Diaz in 2005?

Diaz was given 34 games (22 starts) over four months that season and hit a respectable 281/323/7404.  In September, the Royals gave him just six starts on the way to 100 losses, but he had two hits in three of them.  Not enough to warrant everyday duty at the end of a losing season and certainly not enough to get a shot in spring training the next year.

Instead, Diaz ended up in Atlanta where, over the past four seasons, he has compiled an OPS+ of 116 and a batting line of .316/.363/.466.   How's that look in your outfield Royals' fans?

The point of all of the above, is not whether Diaz, Huber, Shealy and Kaaihue can or could play.   The point was that the Royals simply had no logical reason to not find out for themselves, over an extended amount of playing time, whether they could or not.

I bring this up today, because a similar situation has developed in 2009.   As this team has ground its way deep into the ninety loss realm once more, they have a relatively young switch-hitting catcher who struggles to get playing time away from two very known commodities.

Of course, I am speaking of Brayan Pena, who has appeared in 61 games, but started only 37 of those and just 24 behind the plate.  Despite a .272/.329/.449 line and an OPS+ of 102, Pena has mostly sat and watched as Miguel Olivo and John Buck have taken all but five of the September catching starts.

The company line out of Royalsville is that the club believes Pena can get on base, but worry about his defensive ability.   So, of course, it makes perfect sense to simply not play him behind the plate for a month at the end of a disastrous season, doesn't it?!!

Sure, Miguel Olivo has a career high 23 home runs and with a current line of .249/.292/.492 is surpassing his career averages across the board, but not by a ton.  If you compare Miguel's 2009 to the two seasons he was Florida's everyday catcher (2006 and 2007) you will see fewer doubles and more home runs, but basically similar numbers.   Essentially, Olivo is how we thought he was - it is not like the Royals are gleaning some valuable insight into Olivo as this point.

Yes, John Buck has had a nice September and, with a career best line of .242/.294/.484 seems to be a guy who is much better as a backup catcher than an everyday guy.   Still, John carries a career line of .235/.298/.406: nothing new there, either.

So, that brings us back to Brayan Pena, who certainly appearsto be able to hit for a higher average and get on-base at a higher rate than either Olivo or Buck.   If you extrapolate his numbers out to a 500 plate appearance season, Brayan would, in theory, give you 28 doubles and 17 home runs:  nice numbers for a catcher who is probably going to get on base at a .320/.330 clip.

Of course, the Royals still do not know if Pena can handle a pitching staff everyday, throw out runners with any consistency and block the plate reasonably.   They do not know because Brayan has been granted TWENTY-FOUR starts at catcher since June.

It does not matter if Olivo and Buck have been hot.  It does not matter if you think Pena probably cannot be an everyday catcher.   Heck, if the Royals had played Brayan full time for three months and he ended up hitting .221 with 15 passed balls, we would have at least known what the Royals had in one Brayan Pena.

Instead, the Royals enter the last three games of the season fighting a bad Cleveland team for last place in the Central Division.  They do so with yet one more unanswered question.   Business as usual in KC.

Just look at this as a bookend to the season of suck that is Kyle Farnsworth.

Remember way back in April?  Opening Day in Chicago, to be exact.  The Royals are nursing a 2-1 lead in the eighth until SABR Trey inexplicably decides to let Failsworth face Jim Thome with two runners on.

Boom!  Blown lead.

Fast forward to Tuesday in the Bronx - the site of a number of previous Failsworth meltdowns.  Entrusted with a one run lead and needing three outs to preserve the win, can anyone other than SABR Trey be surprised with the outcome?

Boom!  Blown lead.

Holy crap, Hillman.  Do you even know about the players on your roster?  We’re on game number 157 and you’re still pulling idiot moves like this.  Frankly, it just boggles the mind.

I love how Ryan Lefevbre hypothesized on the broadcast that this was a chance for the Royals to see what Farnsworth could do in a pressure situation.  As if 10 years of blown leads and general late inning meltdowns weren't enough.  

I guess Soria was unavailable.  Who knows why?  I’m sure it was because of his 46 pitch save for Greinke on Sunday.  Obviously, that save was worth it, but come on... Less than a week left in the season and we're treating Soria like some fine piece of crystal.  Grrrr.

Fine.  Let's assume Soria was unavailable.  I just can’t get over the idea that SABR Trey looked at his bullpen and thought Failsworth was the best option in the ninth.  Not that there are a bunch of stellar candidates, but I’d have gone with Jamey Wright, Victor Marte and even Roman Colon before I’d give the ball to Failsworth with a one run lead in the bottom of the ninth.  Basically, anyone but Yabuta.  He’s worse.

Why bother?  We’re talking about a manager who thinks it’s a good idea for Yuniesky Betancourt and his .275 OBP to bat second.  Clearly, the man is in over his head. 

Of course, no Royal meltdown is complete without a defensive miscue.  Tuesday’s blunder was courtesy of John Buck who uncorked a throw into center field trying to gun down Eric Hinske on a steal attempt at second.  That allowed Hinske to move to third and he scored the winning run on the Miranda single.  Of course, that followed earlier ninth inning hi-jinx on a grounder back to the mound.  Not only can Failsworth not pitch in the clutch, he can’t field either.  Jeeez.

(I’m not gonna lie… Part of me was hopeful that grounder that ended the game off Failsworth caused enough injury to sideline him for the next four games.  Nothing major, maybe just some swelling.  But that’s not cool, so I pushed that thought out of my mind.  It was replaced by this one:  I wish the Royals manager had enough sense not to use Failsworth in a save situation.)

Love how FanGraphs represents this game.  Graphical representations of how Farnsworth shouldn't pitch in a save situation are cool.  Dayton Moore has never heard of FanGraphs:

None of this matters.  None of this has mattered since this team went in the tank in June.  Still… I don’t know why I do this to myself.  Waterboarding is preferable to this.  Is it possible that Dick Cheney is managing the Royals?

Is this where I talk about Josh Anderson and his failure to run on a popped bunt that turned into a double play?  Don’t you just love mental freezes and lack of hustle on a 90 loss team?

I feel for Anthony Lerew.  I enjoyed watching him pitch on Tuesday.  He had an energy and a savvy on the mound that was fun to watch.  I’m not saying that this guy deserves to return next season, but for one night, he had everything working. 

The guy has made only five major league starts in a professional career that started back in 2001.  He has a shot at his first major league win against the best team in baseball.  Only to see it crumble thanks to an overmatched manager, a rotten bullpen and craptastic defense.

Welcome to the Royals, kid.

The Royals Authority Radio Show returns for it's second week on Tuesday.

This week's show airs on Tuesday morning at 9 AM with a replay at 2 PM.  Guests are Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus and Will McDonald of Royals Review.

We're not podcasting yet, so the only time to hear the show is live.  Listen at SportsRadioKC.com.  Click the link and then hit the "Listen Live" button.