Errrrr... Not really.

The official word from the Royals Bunker:

The Kansas City Royals today announced the bulk of the Major League coaching staff assignments for the 2010 season.  Manager Trey Hillman’s entire 2009 coaching staff will return intact with the exception of first base coach Rusty Kuntz and bullpen coach John Mizerock.  In addition, Eddie Rodriguez will shift from his 2009 role as a special assignment coach to become Kansas City’s first base coach.

Kuntz, who served the past two seasons as first base coach as well as the outfield and baserunning instructor, will remain in the organization as a special assistant to the general manager/field instructor.  The contract of bullpen coach John Mizerock was not renewed.

Why mess with success?  If the Royals underperformed in 2009, it was obviously Mizerock's fault.

Sorry, but I don't get this.  I guess we'll hear the tired excuse about injuries and whatnot, but Dave Owen was an absolute disaster at third base.  The evidence was so compelling back in June the guy was in over his head.  I haven't crunched the full season numbers, but the Royals were the worst team in baseball at going from first to third on a single and going from second to home.  I place the blame on Owen at third.

You could also question the retention of Kevin Seitzer as the hitting coach.  Granted, he didn't have much to work with in hackers like Miguel Olivo and Mike Jacobs, but as a whole the team didn't really improve.  Team batting average fell 10 points and OBP dropped by two.  Slugging went up eight points from the previous year.  If it was Seitzer's job to tread water, he succeeded.

Keep on, keeping on.

Normally, the end of the regular season and, consequently, the end of the Royals' season, generally comes with a little sadness.   I have woken up on the first Monday after the season and actually missed not be able to see Royals teams that lost 100 games.   This group, not so much.

As Craig mentioned on Friday, this season could not come to a quick enough conclusion for us and virtually every Royals fan still out there.   We learned our lesson from last September when Kansas City went 18-8 and gave us hope for an enjoyable 2009, so we knew that this September would tell us little about what to expect next spring.

Nope, this group will not be missed.

This is a team that had a pitcher in Zack Greinke who posted one of the ten best earned run averages since the introduction of the designated hitter and barely managed to win half the games in which he started.    That simple statistic right there ought to send the front office into overdrive to revamp this squad.

However, given past the trade history and free agent record of the current regime, part of me is scared of what Dayton Moore and crew might actually do if they allowed themselves to go into this mode.   Of course, the other part of me is scared to death that Moore and Company will simply stick by the 'injuries derailed an otherwise promising season' line that they have held for the latter half of the year.

Over the coming months, we will have plenty of time to review the season, focus on the off-season and theorize about 2010.   For now, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that this abomination of a year has mercifully come to an end.

By the way, catch Craig and I on the Royals Authority Show on KCSportsRadio.com tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m. and again at 2:00 p.m. because deep down, we still care about the Royals, right?

It's the final weekend of the season and the Royals have the honor of closing the pit known as the Metrodome. (By the way, the new stadium in Minneapolis apparently doens't have a roof.  Yeah, that will be great next April.)

Aside from the final regular season baseball in the Metrodome, the Royals are still playing for something.  Since the Twins are just a game back from the Tigers in the Central, the boys in blue have something to say about the outcome of this race.  Minnesota will need to win at least two of the three to have any chance - they'll have to hope the White Sox win two in Detroit.  It's a long shot, but you never know.

Of course, the only thing that's truly interesting about this series is Zack Greinke's final start will come on Saturday in the nationally televised FOX game.  I have an article up at The Hardball Times that breaks down the Cy Young candidates in the AL.  Lots of graphs and charts to help the voters.

I officially quit on this team after the Farnsworth debacle the other day.  I'm no longer interested in the 2009 Royals. (As far as breakups go, this was easy.)  I need a break from the genius of SABR Trey and the Process of Dayton Moore.  I need less of Yuniesky Betancourt's rancid defense and Mike Jacobs' strikeouts on sliders outside of the strike zone.  I'm tired of watching Miguel Olivo behind the plate and Wee Willie Bloomquist playing nearly everyday.

I do need more Greinke and Billy Butler.  Thanks to those guys for doing their best to salvage a miserable season here in Kansas City.  Your efforts were appreciated and give us a glimmer of hope going into 2010.

Goodbye, 2009.

Good riddance.

Welcome to the end of yet another losing season in Kansas City and, almost predictably, the end of another season with more questions than answers.

Logic would dictate that either you are competing for a playoff berth or finding out what you have to do in order to compete the next year.    The best I can tell, however, is that the Royals do not subscribe to this theory.

Whether it was Ryan Shealy languishing in Omaha last year as Ross Gload slugged his way into the lineup at first base everyday or Kila Kaaihue getting just 24 plate appearances in the month of September, the Royals seem almost fearful to find out if position players can actually play.

Instead of seeing two more months of Shealy and a month of Kaaihue, Dayton Moore decided instead to leave both of those players as question marks, go out and trade a young reliever for a 'known commoditiy' in whiff artist Mike Jacobs.  

The Moore regime is not the only hierarchy to have a fear of the unknown.   His predecessor, Allard Baird and manager Buddy Bell pretty much refused to give a young player a shot.   We all remember a once highly regarded prospect in Justin Huber sitting on the bench in the majors for a month while aging Doug Mientkiewicz toiled at first base.   However, how many remember Matt Diaz in 2005?

Diaz was given 34 games (22 starts) over four months that season and hit a respectable 281/323/7404.  In September, the Royals gave him just six starts on the way to 100 losses, but he had two hits in three of them.  Not enough to warrant everyday duty at the end of a losing season and certainly not enough to get a shot in spring training the next year.

Instead, Diaz ended up in Atlanta where, over the past four seasons, he has compiled an OPS+ of 116 and a batting line of .316/.363/.466.   How's that look in your outfield Royals' fans?

The point of all of the above, is not whether Diaz, Huber, Shealy and Kaaihue can or could play.   The point was that the Royals simply had no logical reason to not find out for themselves, over an extended amount of playing time, whether they could or not.

I bring this up today, because a similar situation has developed in 2009.   As this team has ground its way deep into the ninety loss realm once more, they have a relatively young switch-hitting catcher who struggles to get playing time away from two very known commodities.

Of course, I am speaking of Brayan Pena, who has appeared in 61 games, but started only 37 of those and just 24 behind the plate.  Despite a .272/.329/.449 line and an OPS+ of 102, Pena has mostly sat and watched as Miguel Olivo and John Buck have taken all but five of the September catching starts.

The company line out of Royalsville is that the club believes Pena can get on base, but worry about his defensive ability.   So, of course, it makes perfect sense to simply not play him behind the plate for a month at the end of a disastrous season, doesn't it?!!

Sure, Miguel Olivo has a career high 23 home runs and with a current line of .249/.292/.492 is surpassing his career averages across the board, but not by a ton.  If you compare Miguel's 2009 to the two seasons he was Florida's everyday catcher (2006 and 2007) you will see fewer doubles and more home runs, but basically similar numbers.   Essentially, Olivo is how we thought he was - it is not like the Royals are gleaning some valuable insight into Olivo as this point.

Yes, John Buck has had a nice September and, with a career best line of .242/.294/.484 seems to be a guy who is much better as a backup catcher than an everyday guy.   Still, John carries a career line of .235/.298/.406: nothing new there, either.

So, that brings us back to Brayan Pena, who certainly appearsto be able to hit for a higher average and get on-base at a higher rate than either Olivo or Buck.   If you extrapolate his numbers out to a 500 plate appearance season, Brayan would, in theory, give you 28 doubles and 17 home runs:  nice numbers for a catcher who is probably going to get on base at a .320/.330 clip.

Of course, the Royals still do not know if Pena can handle a pitching staff everyday, throw out runners with any consistency and block the plate reasonably.   They do not know because Brayan has been granted TWENTY-FOUR starts at catcher since June.

It does not matter if Olivo and Buck have been hot.  It does not matter if you think Pena probably cannot be an everyday catcher.   Heck, if the Royals had played Brayan full time for three months and he ended up hitting .221 with 15 passed balls, we would have at least known what the Royals had in one Brayan Pena.

Instead, the Royals enter the last three games of the season fighting a bad Cleveland team for last place in the Central Division.  They do so with yet one more unanswered question.   Business as usual in KC.

Just look at this as a bookend to the season of suck that is Kyle Farnsworth.

Remember way back in April?  Opening Day in Chicago, to be exact.  The Royals are nursing a 2-1 lead in the eighth until SABR Trey inexplicably decides to let Failsworth face Jim Thome with two runners on.

Boom!  Blown lead.

Fast forward to Tuesday in the Bronx - the site of a number of previous Failsworth meltdowns.  Entrusted with a one run lead and needing three outs to preserve the win, can anyone other than SABR Trey be surprised with the outcome?

Boom!  Blown lead.

Holy crap, Hillman.  Do you even know about the players on your roster?  We’re on game number 157 and you’re still pulling idiot moves like this.  Frankly, it just boggles the mind.

I love how Ryan Lefevbre hypothesized on the broadcast that this was a chance for the Royals to see what Farnsworth could do in a pressure situation.  As if 10 years of blown leads and general late inning meltdowns weren't enough.  

I guess Soria was unavailable.  Who knows why?  I’m sure it was because of his 46 pitch save for Greinke on Sunday.  Obviously, that save was worth it, but come on... Less than a week left in the season and we're treating Soria like some fine piece of crystal.  Grrrr.

Fine.  Let's assume Soria was unavailable.  I just can’t get over the idea that SABR Trey looked at his bullpen and thought Failsworth was the best option in the ninth.  Not that there are a bunch of stellar candidates, but I’d have gone with Jamey Wright, Victor Marte and even Roman Colon before I’d give the ball to Failsworth with a one run lead in the bottom of the ninth.  Basically, anyone but Yabuta.  He’s worse.

Why bother?  We’re talking about a manager who thinks it’s a good idea for Yuniesky Betancourt and his .275 OBP to bat second.  Clearly, the man is in over his head. 

Of course, no Royal meltdown is complete without a defensive miscue.  Tuesday’s blunder was courtesy of John Buck who uncorked a throw into center field trying to gun down Eric Hinske on a steal attempt at second.  That allowed Hinske to move to third and he scored the winning run on the Miranda single.  Of course, that followed earlier ninth inning hi-jinx on a grounder back to the mound.  Not only can Failsworth not pitch in the clutch, he can’t field either.  Jeeez.

(I’m not gonna lie… Part of me was hopeful that grounder that ended the game off Failsworth caused enough injury to sideline him for the next four games.  Nothing major, maybe just some swelling.  But that’s not cool, so I pushed that thought out of my mind.  It was replaced by this one:  I wish the Royals manager had enough sense not to use Failsworth in a save situation.)

Love how FanGraphs represents this game.  Graphical representations of how Farnsworth shouldn't pitch in a save situation are cool.  Dayton Moore has never heard of FanGraphs:

None of this matters.  None of this has mattered since this team went in the tank in June.  Still… I don’t know why I do this to myself.  Waterboarding is preferable to this.  Is it possible that Dick Cheney is managing the Royals?

Is this where I talk about Josh Anderson and his failure to run on a popped bunt that turned into a double play?  Don’t you just love mental freezes and lack of hustle on a 90 loss team?

I feel for Anthony Lerew.  I enjoyed watching him pitch on Tuesday.  He had an energy and a savvy on the mound that was fun to watch.  I’m not saying that this guy deserves to return next season, but for one night, he had everything working. 

The guy has made only five major league starts in a professional career that started back in 2001.  He has a shot at his first major league win against the best team in baseball.  Only to see it crumble thanks to an overmatched manager, a rotten bullpen and craptastic defense.

Welcome to the Royals, kid.

The Royals Authority Radio Show returns for it's second week on Tuesday.

This week's show airs on Tuesday morning at 9 AM with a replay at 2 PM.  Guests are Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus and Will McDonald of Royals Review.

We're not podcasting yet, so the only time to hear the show is live.  Listen at SportsRadioKC.com.  Click the link and then hit the "Listen Live" button.

Were you among the 28,000+ that bade farewell to Zack Greinke's masterful 2009 season?  What a party.  And what a fitting conclusion to his year at home.  You had little offense (thanks for the 3 run bomb Yuni!) but the man kept his team in the game the whole way.  Then you had Joakim Soria bring it home for a six out save to give Greinke his 16th win on the year.  If only all Greinke's starts had been like this.

Nevertheless, I hope the Royals Hall of Fame is clearing shelf space for some additional hardware.

I’ve been rough on SABR Trey all summer, but I will give the man credit for the way he’s handled Grienke coming down the stretch.  In a meaningless September game for the Royals, but one that had just a ton of meaning for Greinke’s chances for post season hardware, Hillman did a fine job finding the proper balance.  He removed Greinke after seven innings and 97 pitches. 

Let’s look at some of those pitches. 

Greinke threw 55 fastballs. His maximum speed, according to PITCHf/x was 98 mph and his average fastball speed was roughly 94 mph.  That’s right in line with his seasonal averages.  It’s what we expect when Greinke is healthy and on his game.  Obviously, he was both of those on Sunday. 

Of those fastballs he was pumping at Twin hitters, 39 of them - or 71% - were strikes.  Three of them (8%) were swing and misses.

Those are some fine ratios.  However the story isn’t about his velocity or his fastball in general.

These days, it’s all about his slider. 

Greinke is throwing the slider roughly 21% of the time.  He’s never thrown this pitch this much in his major league career.  He’s mixing it in with his curveball, which he throws about 14% of the time.  These two off speed pitches are a key part of his repertoire, at the expense of his change-up.

Here’s how Greinke’s pitches looked on Sunday from the bird’s eye view:



Greinke’s slider is the most devastating pitch in the game.  It dives in on left handed hitters and moves down and away from the right handers.  The fact he can throw this pitch in the low 90s gives it that fastball vibe, but at the last instant… BOOM!  Away it goes.  This was the pitch that was on display Sunday.   He uncorked a slider 15 times and registered a strike with 11 of those pitches.  And of those 15 strikes, 5 of them were of the swing and miss variety. 

It may seem like the 15 sliders isn’t that large of a number.  I guess in the grand scheme of things, it’s not.  But consider this:  Of those five swing and misses on Grienke’s slider, all of them resulted in a third strike.  His fastball works so well, he uses it to jump ahead… Then comes the wicked slider to seal the deal.

Here’s how Greinke used his slider on Sunday:

In the 1st, he threw 2 sliders, both times with 2 strikes on the batter.  The result was one fly out and one swing and a miss strikeout.

In the 2nd, he threw 1 slider when he had 2 strikes on the batter.  The result was a swing and a miss strikeout.

In the 3rd, he threw 5 sliders total, with 3 of them when he had 2 strikes.  One slider was fouled off, two sliders were taken for a ball and two were swung at and missed for a third strike

In the 4th, Greinke didn’t throw a slider

In the 5th, he threw 1 slider, coming with 2 strikes on the hitter. The result was a swing and a miss strikeout.

In the 6th, he threw 3 sliders in a row to Jason Kubel. Kubel fouled off 2, and took 1 for a ball

In the 7th, he threw 3 sliders, 3 with 2 strikes.  The result was one single, one foul and one ball 

The Kubel at bat where Greinke fed him three consecutive sliders came at a key junction in the game.  At the time, the Royals were leading 4-0 and the first two batters in the Twins half of the sixth had singled, putting runners at first and second.  If Kubel can get a base hit, that would really turn up the heat on the Royals and Greinke.  And you can bet, Greinke didn’t want to hand over his start to the bullpen in the sixth inning.  Trust those bums to hold a four run lead with anywhere between 12 and nine outs to go?  No thanks.

Unfortunately, Greinke couldn’t get Kubel out on the slider.  Kubel had already fouled off two fastballs and was down in the count 1-2.  On the first slider, Kubel again fouled it off.  He took the second for a ball and then fouled off the third.  Perhaps thinking he had gone to the slider well one time too often, Greinke went back to the fastball and got him to ground out. 

It was another masterful performance from the best pitcher I’ve ever seen in a Royals uniform.  His final line:

7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 SO

He shaved a couple hundredths off his ERA and it’s now 2.06.  If he throws seven shutout innings in his final start against the Twins, he’ll finish with a 1.99 ERA. 

Since the DH became the rule in 1973, only three American League pitchers have posted a sub 2.00 ERA:

1978 - Ron Guidry 1.74
1990 - Roger Clemens 1.93
2000 - Pedro Martinez 1.74

The bad news we can glean from this list?  Clemens in 1990 didn’t win the Cy Young.  He lost to Bob Welch, who had 6 more wins than the Rocket.  Check out the stats between the two… What happened to Clemens was robbery.  Straight up theft.

Thankfully, there isn’t a similar situation this year where one starter has lapped the field in the win column.  Greinke now has 16 wins and while some writers may grumble that’s not enough, no pitcher is currently at 20 wins.  And CC Sabathia, who the Royals will face on Wednesday, is the only pitcher who can reach this mystical plateau.  My bias aside, I can’t believe that anyone could give their first place vote to anyone but Greinke.  Unfortunately, we all know how some of these crotchety sportswriters can be… “It’s all about the wins!  Who cares about stats?  Wins matter!”

That will be Sabathia’s final start of the year.  How freakin’ sweet is that?  Here we had figured the Royals to be playing meaningless September baseball, and now on the final day of the month, they actually have something important to play for.

Beat Sabathia and win the Cy Young for Greinke. 

Of course the irony of the Royal hitters possibly clinching the Cy Young for their teammate isn’t lost here.  If those bums had done even half their job during the season, it wouldn’t be coming down to this. 

Sometimes though, redemption kicks ass.

On Wednesday, I offered up the theory of trading Joakim Soria to build a better future base for the Kansas City Royals. 

It could be sheer lunacy to consider moving either the second or third best player on the roster.  One who is signed to a long term deal for reasonable money and a player who, frankly, may not even be in his prime yet.

Some of you commented that while the theory might make at least some sense, you simply did not trust Dayton Moore to make the right call on the players to be received in return.  I cannot argue with that trepidation, not even a little.

However, for fun, let's take Dayton Moore out of the equation and, using the three trades detailed on Wednesday as a guide, examine one potential trade option.

Those three trades we talked about involved a rehabbing Eric Gagne, a free agent to be Jose Valverde and George Sherill.   Without sounding too biased, Joakim Soria is better than any of those three at the point in time they were traded.   He is in a better contract situation, has a better track record and is pitching RIGHT NOW better than any of those three were.   That said, I think one can logically assume that Soria would net more in return than what the market granted for those three closers.

Okay, so who is the trading partner?

In looking around the league, I considered only teams that are going to make the playoffs or are in contention to do so this season (and hence, might believe they are just 'one player away' from making the playoffs next year).   Truthfully, there are a number of teams that might consider an upgrade at closer and I intend to explore some others later, but one really screamed out to me:  Philadelphia.

The Phillies' closer right now is Brad Lidge.   He has a 7.48 earned run average and a WHIP of 1.861.   While we in Kansas City fully understand how overvalued won-loss records are for pitchers, you have to put some stock in those numbers when a closer with ZERO wins and EIGHT losses.   Lidge has been bad enough for the Phils to start thinking about using Chan Ho Park to finish games.

Now, Philadelphia will make the playoffs and might win the Series anyway, but don't tell me they want to go into 2010 relying on Lidge..or Park...or anyone else.   They are team built to win now, next year and the year after that.   They have three outfielders (Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorinio) who are all really good and two exceptional outfield prospects in the minors.    Anyone smell a match here?

Keeping in mind that Ibanez will someday show his age and that, as good as he is, Joakim Soria is 'just a reliever', the Royals will not pry both Michael Taylor and Dominic Brown away from Philadelphia.   They might be able to get one of them, however.

Both Brown (the pre-season #1 prospect of the organization) and Taylor (pre-season #6) are big, athletic outfielders with pop and tons of potential.   At 21 years old, Brown went .299/.377/.504 split between High A and AA ball this year.   Taylor, two years older, went .320/.395/.549, split between AA and AAA.

My guess is that Brown still remains the better prospect, so I would be happy to propose the Phillies send over Taylor as part of this deal.   He might not be ready to play everyday next spring, but likely would be in the majors no later than next summer.  At which point, Michael would likely already be the team's best outfielder.

Along with Taylor, just for tradition's sake, the Phillies would send along outfielder John Mayberry Jr.   He hit .200 in limited major league duty this year and just .256/.332/.456 in AAA action.   At age twenty-five, the junior Mayberry is probably not a prospect any longer, but not so old to completely call him washed up, either.  He would be a decent risk for an organization like the Royals without much potential help at the AAA level.

The haul of Taylor and Mayberry is still a little light (both in my opinion and based upon past trades), so let's through 24 year old pitcher Alexander Concepion into the deal.   The righthander compiled a 3.21 ERA split between AA and AAA this year, sporting a strikeout to walk ratio of over four to one at both levels.   He is a control pitcher, not a strikeout guy, who has split time between the pen and starting.   Again, not a great prospect, but he has enough of a track record to be useful at the back of the rotation or in middle relief.

So the question is two-fold:  is this a reasonably logical trade and would you do it?

The Royals PR machine is now officially in overdrive on the "Greinke For Cy Young" initiative.

The latest:

The Kansas City Royals have announced a “Zack Pack” ticket promotion for the Sunday, September 27 game with the Minnesota Twins.  American League Cy Young candidate Zack Greinke is scheduled to start the 1:10 p.m. contest.  Greinke enters with a 15-8 record, baseball’s best ERA at 2.08 and 229 strikeouts on the season, second-most in franchise history.

Plus, the first 10,000 fans will receive a special T-shirt with this design:

I hope a certain Minneapolis-based columnist is lucky enough to get one of these.

To get fans in, the Royals are doing that late season, drop your pants kind of thing where you can get tickets on the cheap.  You should probably take advantage because next season the Royals will probably work something out where Greinke starts are part of a "premium" pack or some such nonsense.  Actually, that would probably be smart.

Anyway, look at it like this... In a few years time when Royals fans look back on Greinke's Cy Young season, a bunch of people will brag that they were at his final start.  This t-shirt is proof.  Go.

Besides, the game isn't on TV.