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After Zack Greinke’s contract extension last winter, it’s only natural that we will look to the front office with the expectation that they’ll do the same with Billy Butler. However, if you are counting on them to achieve that this winter, you’re going to be disappointed.
There are a few of reasons for this. Let’s take a look.
Timing
Butler has just over two years of MLB service time. He won’t qualify for arbitration as a “Super 2” so he’ll have to wait another year before he can add another zero onto the back of his paycheck.
Because he’s under club control for next year, the Royals are really in no hurry to sign him to an extension. Realistically, the Royals have his rights for another four years. Of course, if the Royals do decide - at any point - they would like to extend him, they’ll do it sooner rather than later. But since he’ll earn around $500,000 next year, there’s no reason to give him a bump in this year’s salary just to get him in the fold long-term.
That leads me to the second reason.
Budget
From my post last Thursday, the Royals - as things currently stand - have absolutely no margin to add payroll of any sort. Even if it’s as small as an additional $200,000. For the Royals this winter, every dollar counts.
History
Third year players rarely get the luxury of long-term deals. Those are saved for high draft picks and free agents.
Think about it. When was the last time a player with less than three years of service time (meaning he had yet to qualify for arbitration) was given a contract extension? The Royals actually have done this before - with David DeJesus - but many teams are content with addressing the situation once a player becomes arbitration eligible.
Those are the reasons the Royals probably won’t be locking Butler up this winter. I’m not saying those are valid reasons… I’m saying those are the Royals reasons.
Long term - if the Royals think Butler would be an asset to this team for the next several years - it probably makes sense for them to sign Butler to a contract extension. Plus, the sooner they can accomplish this, the better it will be for the team. Just look at the DeJesus contract extension as an example. The Royals bought out his arbitration years for a sum of around $8 million. That was a steal for the Royals. Not that DeJesus should be complaining. That’s the tradeoff in the extension dance - the player sacrifices some future potential earnings for the security of a long term deal. It seems fair to me.
This summer, we all saw what Butler was capable of with the bat. Not many 23 year old players accomplished what Butler accomplished this summer. 51 doubles? A slash line of .301/.362/.492? Barring injury, the kid is only going to get better. The longer the Royals wait, the higher his price tag. It would behoove the Royals to act quickly. However, the Royals under Dayton Moore strike me as an organization that wants to be sure with their own players before they commit big dollars. (I wish they did this with bad players from other teams.) There’s nothing wrong with this strategy because, as I said, Butler isn’t in the position to break the bank. Yet.
It’s a gamble teams play all the time. They obviously want their young players to improve, but it comes at a cost (financially speaking) to the club. If Butler is seeking a five-year deal valued at $20 million this winter, that could easily turn into a four-year, $25 million deal next winter if he continues to improve.
If I had to guess, I would think the Royals decide not to extend Butler this winter. Part of me believes they want to see how the kid handles success. I can’t say that I blame them for that. Butler’s maturity has always been suspect, but last year he really proved something when he came into camp in good shape and had clearly been working on all aspects of his game. He had something to prove, and he knew it.
Now that he has a really solid season under his belt, I wonder if he’ll put in the same amount of work this winter. I hope so. I know the Royals hope so too, but I think they fear he won’t.
So while it may cost the Royals a few more dollars in the long term, I think they’re going to take the cautious approach and see how 2010 turns out for Butler before they make a commitment.
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Comments
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Well, Butler WAS a high draft pick. As in first round. Or is the 14th overall pick not considered "high?"
I do agree with your thinking. Dayton Moore doesn't see the need to do it yet. I can't say I blame him.