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....to make a deal.
Dayton Moore has made public statements that the Royals are ready to make deals: preferably through trades for players with zero to three years service time.
The Mark Teahen to Chicago deal was a perfect example of this philosophy. You trade an at best average player who is starting to cost real money for two younger players with very little service time. Sure, you run the risk that Teahen suddenly finds 2006 again, but that appears unlikely at this point. You also run a risk of both Chris Getz and Josh Fields never panning out, but in the end, all the Royals have done is give up a year of average service on a player who they likely would not pursue in free agency to gamble on two younger players.
So, with one trade down, what would it take to for you to pull the trigger on some of the more likely trade commodities on the roster?
David DeJesus
I don't buy the argument that DeJesus is 'really just a fourth outfielder', particularly given that he was the best leftfielder in the American League Central last year. Is he a superstar? Certainly not. Is he untouchable? Definitely not.
The problem with DeJesus is that his value to the Royals is probably high enough that the return in trade simply does not match up. While David's contract is still reasonable, it has reached the point of not being a bargain anymore. This is a player that is better defenisvely at his position (left field) than any other Royal is at his position. He will post an OPS right around .800 every year, miss 20 games or so and reach the low double figures in home runs. DeJesus is okay, above league average, but not good enough for a team to part with a top level prospect to get him.
What would it take for me to move DeJesus? A near major league ready centerfielder who is a top tier prospect or a similar player who played in AA last year, plus a secondary prospect. I think it is unlikely that a team parts with that booty to get a couple of years of DeJesus.
For the Royals, somebody has to be on base in front of Billy Butler's bat. It might as well be DeJesus.
Alberto Callaspo
The rumors of Callaspo for AAA catcher A.J. Ellis has quieted and that is simply not enough in return for a guy who can really hit.
Still, Callaspo is a horrible defender at second base and his lack of instincts and hands makes me skeptical of a rumored move to third base. The same lack of instincts and, in this case, foot-speed, seems to make Alberto a poor candidate for an outfield position. All this would not be such a huge issue if Callaspo was surrounded by good defensive players as opposed to, well, the Royals.
There are two questions with regard to trading Callaspo. One, would a good defensive team be willing to absorb his poor defense to Callaspo's bat into their lineup? Two, do you think the power Callapso showed in 2009 is for real? If the answer to either of those questions is 'yes', then trading Alberto is doable and advisable.
If the return for Callaspo is a long time minor league catcher who plays good defense but has never hit well outside of hitter's ballparks (aka A.J. Ellis), then the Royals would likely be ahead to make Callaspo their everyday DH, bat him second and see if he continues to be a .300 hitter who bangs out fifty plus extra base hits.
Now, if the return is a legitimate catching prospect ready for major league action or an A.J. Ellis type PLUS a mid-level outfield prospect, then I think it is a reasonable risk to take.
I think the chances are relatively good that Callaspo is in a different uniform next season. The odds that Dayton Moore pulls the trigger on the right kind of deal (or is even offered such a deal for that matter) are less than 50-50.
Gil Meche
The likely return for Meche prior to 2009 was probably about double what it is right now. Most teams are going to consider Gil damaged goods until he can prove that the abuse suffered at the hands of Trey Hillman in the summer of 2009 had no long-term effects.
For the Royals, you have to get a starting pitching prospect back, plus at least two other minor leaguers to even start talking about moving Meche. Right now, they won't get this kind of deal.
I don't like the idea of trading Meche simply because no one else in the organization but Gil and Zack Greinke haves the capability to put up 200+ innings with an sub-four earned run average in 2010.
The wise move is to keep Meche to start the season. If he's healthy and effective and the Royals find themselves buried once more on July 1st, then Meche will be a hot commodity at the trade deadline. There is no reason for Dayton Moore to part ways with Gil for a bargain price at this point in time.
Jose Guillen
The only trade is going to be of the 'here's our malcontent overpaid player for your malcontent overpaid player'. There has been some Guillen for Milton Bradley talk, but I think that's all speculation. There is too much bad history between Bradley and the Royals for this to work.
Again, Guillen might well have more value (i.e. some value) by the trade deadline. The Royals are on the hook for twelve million dollars no matter what so it is probably worth their while to put up with at least a couple months of Jose just to see if he actually hits the ball for a change.
Simply cutting Guillen in November does not make much sense. If he's causing trouble and covering about fourteen square feet in rightfield come June 1st, then you cut him.
Trade? I'd listen to any offer made, but I doubt there will be many, if any at all.
In the end, the four players listed above are really the only tradable commodities the Royals have. Brian Bannister probably could be added to the list, but with his injury status the paragraph would read much like Gil Meche's only with about half the return. It would be selling low once more.
They would also be selling low on Alex Gordon, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar, so I don't think they are a consideration. At least not as the primary pieces in a trade. I could foresee a trade in which Davies might be the add-in piece with a DeJesus or Callaspo, but that gets into a entirely different discussion.
For now, what would it take for you to pull the trigger on any of the four above?
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Comments
Here is the Bradley OPS (Games) vs Guillen OPS (Games) over the last 4 years:
2006: 0.818 (96) vs 0.674 (69)
2007: 0.947 (61) vs 0.813 (153)
2008: 0.999 (126) vs 0.738 (153)
2009: 0.745 (124) vs 0.681 (81)
Neither guy will give a team a full season. Bradley is a superior player, plus the reaction of Ryan Lafebre would be pretty awesome.
DJ- I'd take a clone of DJ in with less than 3 years service time.
Meche- I'd take one stud starting pitching prospect in either the AA or AAA level as well as a couple top 15 AA or lower position players prospects. Meche won't get moved in 2010.
Guillen- I'd take a bucket of used game balls. Guillen won't get moved this winter. He'll get trotted out to showcase his skills, or lack thereof, for the first four months, to maximize his value. Right now it's nil. Hopefully he takes some steroids, doesn't get caught, and hits his way off the team at the deadline. I see him playing 2 months of shitty ball and getting released.
Meche, Farnsworth, and Guillen off the books in 2011 (provided Meche get's moved) will free up approximately 28.5 million dollars. Coupled with the emergence of Moose and Hos, Monty and Melville, Lough and Crow, and anyone else who decides they want to play ball, the Royals might have a shot at contention in the Central.
e're talking about defense and not hitting. The fallacy of assigning players to defensive positions because of thier hitting ability is silly. Put your 9 best hitters out tthere, and put them to the defensive spot that best helps the team. Or put your 9 best defensive playrs out there and hit them accordingly.
At some point this team needs to start establishing players at set positions. Seems like every year we are always talking about taking the same crap players and shuffling them around on defense.
Meche's salary and injury status preclude trading him for anything of value. We really need Meche to return to form or his deal is going to be the albatross all the pundits predicted.
DDJ simply isn't worth a lot on the open market. His salary is right about where it should be for a player of his skill and service time. Teams are not going to give up really good prospects in exchange for that.
Callaspo is the only really marketable chip we have (that we are willing to trade). His defensive range is abysmal and he has the gift for making the killer error. The plus side is that most teams could use a 2B of his offensive ability. I would prefer to get a major league ready CF or SS, but would settle for a decent starting pitcher.
Not much reason to trade Hochevar, Davies, Gordon, et al. You couldn't get anything for them. May as well give them another season to see if they can figure things out.