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This coming Friday is the deadline for teams to set their 40 man rosters for the off-season. The exemptions for players on the sixty day disabled list go away, which puts the mighty Bruce Chen back on the roster as 'man number forty'. Of course, the relevant part of this deadline is that the 40 man roster is also the protected list from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
Briefly, any minor league player who is not on his organization's forty man roster and has four seasons of minor league experience is eligible to be plucked from the organization, so long as the drafting team is willing to carry said player on their major league roster for all of 2010. There is a exemption for players who were eighteen years old or younger at the time they were signed: those players must have five years of minor league service time to be subject to the Rule 5.
That last line is a critical one to remember and important to the Royals as it (by my calculations) means that Jeff Bianchi is exempt from the Rule 5 for one more season as he signed just a few months prior to turning nineteen.
If Bianchi is safe, then who among the position players is not? Obviously, we could come up with quite a list of players, but most would be unlikely to garner even fleeting interest from other clubs or even trigger a memory in many of our minds. There are some 'organizational' names you will recognize such as Josh Johnson, Chris McConnell, Ed Lucas, Jose Duarte and Irving Falu. You might be looking for Chris Lubanski, but he has reached the point of being a minor league free agent.
None of those guys has the resume to entice a team to draft AND carry them for a full season. Nor do any of them have the talent or potential to take up a roster spot protecting them.
One player might, however, and that guy is outfielder Jordan Parraz. Now, Parraz has one season (2009) above A ball, but he posted outstanding numbers between AA and AAA: .348/.432/.541/.973. To be honest, I am not sure anyone would bite on Parraz, but why take the risk when you have the likes of Luis Hernandez and a raft of relievers I can no longer bear to even mention taking up roster space?
So, the Royals should protect Parraz, say at the expense of Luis Hernandez just for talking purposes. Now, how about the pitchers?
Pitching is often the place were teams are willing to gamble with a major league roster spot for a full season. Even if your Rule 5 draftee does not turn into Johan Santana or Joakim Soria, he might well be at least serviceable ala D.J. Carrasco or Andy Sisco. Given that, the Royals have a number of hurlers who might draw some attention.
The most notable of names is submarining, blogger Chris Hayes. Although Hayes was only average in 49 innings of AAA work, his dominance in a season and a half at AA. His unconvential delivery only makes Hayes worthy of protecting. With the likes of Devon Lowery, Doug Waechter, Jamey Wright and Chen on the 40 man roster, the Royals can certainly drop one to make room for Hayes.
In my opinion, the Hayes decision was the easy one. What about two other relievers: Chris Nicoll and Gilbert de la Vara.
The Royals actually lost de la Vara to the Rule 5 last year and he came within a couple of spots of making the Astros before being returned. Gilbert struggled in 2009, giving up 83 hits in 64 innings of AA ball and posting the worst strikeout to walk ratio of his career. A team might gamble on him, but if I were the Royals, I would let them. That does not mean that de la Vara should not be kept around if he is not taken, but simply that the world would not end if he was.
I kind of have this gut feeling that I think more of Chris Nicoll than most watchers of the Royals' minor league system. After imploding as a starter in 2007, Nicoll rebounded as a reliever in 2008 and posting a 1.15 WHIP and 4.52 SO/BB ratio. While 2009 was not as impressive, it was still solid. Chris struck out 58 hitters in 61 innings of AA work before getting promoted to AAA and being lit up in five games as a starter.
The Omaha Royals basically ran out of starting pitchers at the end of last season and were forced to press Nicoll into service. My guess is that some other organizations (hopefully including the Royals) will discount the AAA experience and consider Nicoll as a decent gamble as the last guy in their major league bullpen. Given the names I listed at the end of Chris Hayes' paragraph above, is there any reason not to protect Nicoll?
It is probably relevant to point out that two AA starters are also eligible for selection: Blake Johnson and Matt Kinginyzky. Neither warrants protection as it is unlikely someone will burn a 25 man spot on either.
So, in my world, the Royals should move to protect Jordan Parraz, Chris Nicoll and Chris Hayes at the expense of Luis Hernandez, Devon Lowery and Bruce Chen (or pick you generic veteran arm). By the weekend, we will know what Dayton Moore and staff actually do.
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Comments
--Dyson, while a bit old to be a prospect, is playing well enough in Arizona that I think a team will take a flyer on him. I'd protect him over some of the dead weight on the 40 man.
--Pimental (recovering from season ending arm surgery) and Hulett are two other guys that could easily be dropped from the 40 man.
--Good teams with good farm systems have difficult decisions to make regarding their 40 man rosters. it's been a long time since KC has had such concerns.