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Dayton Moore stole my thunder.
And my computer destroyed my nearly finished, extremely long column - some of you may think that is a good thing.
After taking the past few weeks to review the Royals versus the American League Central on a position by position basis, my plan was to then lay out a blueprint for the off-season. In doing so, this plan was not going to be another 'here's what I would do if I were general manager' column, but instead a 'here's what I think Dayton Moore should do' mixed with a 'here's what I think Dayton Moore might do'.
To be honest, we can write all the 'what I would do' type columns we want, but the truth is Yuniesky Betancourt will still be the shortstop come April of 2010. So, I will save my 'what I would do' column for next July.....and probably write about five of them that month!
Anyway, back to the thunder stealing. My sketchy ideas began with trading, of all people, Mark Teahen. Here is the quasi-funny thing about my thoughts. I was going to trade Mark Teahen and something (I had yet to decide what that something would need to be and, in fact, was halfway through an email to a Twins blogger to try to discover that somethingwhen the actual Teahen trade came down) to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez. Of course, not only did the Royals trade Teahen, but the Twins actually traded Gomez the next day. The only problem with my reality versus THE reality is that Teahen and Gomez were involved in seperate trades.
That is all out the window at this point, as is the question of picking up Miguel Olivo's option. I like the trade of Teahen for Chris Getz and Josh Fields. As I posted on Friday, Getz has at least some hope of becoming Brian Roberts-esque and Fields is, well, one year less removed from his 'big' year than Mark Teahen was and a whole lot cheaper.
All things considered, I was prepared to make a case to picking up the team's side of Olivo's option. Although, as it turned out, Miguel probably was not going to pick up his side of the mutual option anyway. Given that the Royals simply refused to find out if Brayan Pena could handle the everyday catching job defensively last summer (my guess is no, by the way), that leaves John Buck as a central figure in the equation.
That is, until I opened up MLBTraderumors this morning and read a rumor of Alberto Callaspo to the Dodgers for A.J. Ellis. By all accounts, Ellis is a very good defensive catcher who at age twenty-eight has recieved a grand total of thirteen major league plate appearances. Ellis sports a career minor league line of .278/.398/.375/.772 with more walks than strikeouts.
Okay, so now what?
Let's assume/hope/pray that Gil Meche and Brian Bannister are both healthy come spring training. If that is the case, then I am fully behind the idea of staying in-house with a rotation of Greinke, Meche, Bannister and some combination of Robinson Tejeda, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar and Anthony Lerew. With any luck, Aaron Crow debuts in September and this 'decent' unit gets even stronger.
As for the bullpen, the Royals have Soria (who I might trade, but Dayton Moore almost certainly won't) and are stuck with Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth. The remaining three or four spots should be filled in-house with the Carlos Rosa, Chris Hayes, Chris Nicoll, Dusty Hughes, Lenny DiNardo and maybe even Greg Holland at some point.
The infield will almost certainly be Butler, Getz, Betancourt, and Gordon. Billy likes playing in the field and is your best hitter: leave him be. There was no point in acquiring Getz unless the intent is to play him everyday at second and hope he becomes Brian Roberts - I think there is a one in three chance he might. The Royals are stuck with Betancourt and simply have to spend one more year 'finding out' about Alex Gordon. Reports are that Mike Aviles will be ready by spring and he gives you a backup at second, short and third - with the outside chance of forcing one of those three out of the lineup.
The outfield....ugh. Well, it is David DeJesus and a wasteland.
Designated hitter? Don't do it, Dayton! Don't offer Mike Jacobs arbitration! I don't think he will. I mean, he can't can he?
What to Do
I kind of like A.J. Ellis, but I'm skeptical of his ability to not have the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors. Callapso for all his faults is too much to offer to only get Ellis in return.
My idea of Carlos Gomez roaming center field and becoming Willie Wilson with power is gone, but I still view center field as the single biggest need on this team and for this organization. The Royals idea of playing Josh Fields at a corner outfield spot (with his 180 innings of outfield experience) seems a little 'out there'. The thought of Jose Guillen spending another inning, much less 180 or, shudder, 1,000 in right field is horrifying.
If the Royals keep their pitchers, then they are left with two tradeable commodities: David DeJesus and Alberto Callaspo. Somewhow, they need to get a centerfielder or at least a better than what they have outfielder.
Here's the Deal
I just cannot seem to make straight up deals work with what the Royals have to offer. Callaspo is either not enough or too much and adding a prospect tips the scale to too much to give up. So, when in doubt, a three way deal always makes for good conversation.
The Royals would part ways with Alberto Callaspo and, hold on kids, Danny Duffy. Callaspo would go the Dodgers while Duffy would go to the Reds.
In return, the Dodgers would send A.J. Ellis the Royals way and a pitcher (and I'm being lazy here) with less upside, but farther along than Duffy to the Reds.
The Reds would send outfielder Chris Dickerson to Kansas City. To make this deal work, they might also have to send some minor prospect to the Dodgers, but nothing to major as LA is giving up a 28 year old minor league catcher and an 'outside the Top 10' prospect.
Too much? Maybe, but the Royals need a centerfielder who can hit and they would still have promising pitchers Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery and Tim Melville in their system.
And That's Not All!
The Royals have saved some cash in trading Teahen, so they would be wise to use it on a Brian Schneider: a veteran, defensive catcher with a touch of on-base ability. In addition, a reliever along the lines of a Kiko Calero ought to be doable on a one-year two or three million dollar deal.
Plus, the idea of resigning Coco Crisp to a low base salary one year deal with a bunch of incentives sounds like a nice insurance policy.
The 2010 Royals
Your pitching staff was outlined above, with the addition of Calero or a Calero-type.
Your everyday lineup is:
Catcher: Schneider/Ellis
First: Billy Butler
Second: Chris Getz
Short: Y. Betancourt
Third: Alex Gordon
Left: David DeJesus
Center: Chris Dickerson
Right: Josh Fields/Jose Guillen
DH: Kila Kaaihue (seriously, he would be better than Jacobs and five times as cheap).
Utility: Mike Aviles, Brayan Pena
Does this group contend in 2010? Certainly not, but is anyone thinking there is anything you could reasonably do to be a contender in 2010?
The hope is that Dickerson is the real deal and Getz is above average. Maybe Josh Fields can hit and takes over DH duties to make room for David Lough or Jordan Parraz at mid-season. Maybe Coco Crisp comes back and you run with an outfield of Crisp/Dickerson/DeJesus in the second half. You can also hope that under the watchful eye of Schneider, A.J. Ellis does become a real life major league catcher.
Come 2011, the Royals can look to adding Aaron Crow to the rotation and, free of Guillen's salary, have some money to throw around to address at least one, if not two needs that arise.
That is a lot of maybe and hopefully, but it sounds better than 'no chance at all'.
I have to apologize as this column had a lot more stats and thoughts before it blew up. The above is the high points of the tortured musings of my mind without a lot of the groundwork originally done. Man, I hate it when real life cuts into my blogging time!
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Comments
And Clark, how about some more background on Chris Dickerson? Who is he stuck behind? Why do the Reds move him, etc? You know, give us some of the meat you lost when the computer crashed...