A Deal I Would Do

Royals Authority

October 30, 2008

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Like many of you, I was a little confused and not very excited about the recent Mike Jacobs talk: particularly when it seemed to be Carlos Rosa headed to Florida. However, with the talks now seeming to near fruition and the Royal headed to the Marlins appears to be reliever Leo Nunez, I am on the other side of the fence.

First off, I operate under these two general assumptions:

Always trade a relief pitcher for a starting pitcher (with a rare 'elite closer' exception to this rule)
Always trade a pitcher for a regular player (again with a rare 'top of the line' starter exception)

Based upon those two trading guidelines, exchanging Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs seems like a deal I would do.

Now, in Jacobs you have a big time power guy with a low on-base percentage who will no doubt be hurt by playing in Kansas City. Mike is a pure, unalduterated hacker, posting less than 40 walks in each of the past two seasons. His minor league on-base percentage was just .344, so they thought that he will become Adam Dunn in the next few years in unlikely. Still, he will knock some balls out of the park - he might have the kind of power that is unaffected by Kaufmann Stadium's spacious confines. If that is the case, Jacobs is better than Jose Guillen..or at least no worse.

The argument can be made that the Royals are crowded at first base already, so why add a low on-base lefty to the mix? Well, ARE they loaded? You have Ross Gload, a part-timer at best who has collected an offensive number of at-bats at first base over the past two years. You have Ryan Shealy, who looked like the real deal....IN SEPTEMBER. You have Kila Kaaihue, who had a monster minor league season in 2008, which means he is either the second coming of Ryan Howard or the second coming of Brandon Berger. In addition, the Royals have Billy Butler, who has yet to hit anywhere near as well as expected and may or may not be able to play the position defensively. The Royals have room for three of those guys, maybe even four if you count Gload as a backup outfielder.

In Nunez, you have a reliever who has had his moments, but has never avoided injury AND been consistent for an entire year. Frankly, Leo was the Royals fourth best reliever last year and, at times, was even further down the pecking order than that.

In my opinion, trading Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs is a low risk, low cost insurance policy in case the September 2008 Ryan Shealy disappears and Kila Kaaihue hits .228 in Omaha next year. In the end you have two questions to answer:

Mike Jacobs or Ross Gload?
Can you replace Leo Nunez in the bullpen?

If the answer is yes to both, then you make the deal. I think we all have an idea as to how Dayton Moore answered those, don't we?

Tags: Florida Marlins, Kansas City Royals

Discussion

21 Comments on "A Deal I Would Do"

Posted by Benjamin Holeton, October 30, 2008 10:19 AM

Mike jacobs>Ross Gload
Mike Jacobs=Ryan Shealy
Miek Jacobns >Kila Ka'Ahuie (at least right now)
Mike jacobs>Billy Butler (way more power, can actually play first base)

We can find another bullpen guy. You have to do the deal if it's Nuñez. I agree you don't give up Rosa. There are plenty of bullpen bitchers available (see Type B free Agents here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/type-ab-free-ag.html) Any of them could step into that spot. or maybe you have Rosa start the season out of the bullpen like the Twins did with johan Santana to get a feel for the big leagues.

Posted by Craig Brown, October 30, 2008 11:33 AM

It's official:

The Kansas City Royals have acquired first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins in exchange for right-handed pitcher Leo Nunez.

“We’re delighted to acquire a productive hitter to impact the middle of our lineup,” said Dayton Moore, Royals’ Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager. “Mike’s a winner and has a very aggressive approach to baseball and we look forward to his presence on our club.”

Jacobs, who turned 28 today, hit .247 (118-for-477) with a career-high 32 home runs and 93 RBI for the Marlins in 2008. The left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower also recorded 27 doubles, two triples and scored 67 runs in 141 games. His 32 homers were the second-most among left-handed hitters in Marlins history, trailing Carlos Delgado's 33 in 2005. Jacobs' 18 home runs away from home in 2008 ranked tied for seventh in the Majors. He homered once every 14.9 at bats, which ranked 10th in the Majors and among first basemen trailed only Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.

Posted by CollininCalifornia, October 30, 2008 11:49 AM

I have an overwhelming sense of sadness at this news... I've spent all morning feeling like I needed to make a call to someone... anyone... to stop this deal. But oh well. I felt helpless like I could only stand by and watch this happen. And it has.

I appreciate that Jacobs is better than Ross Gload, but i fear that GMDM will use this as an excuse to rid the Royals of Bam Bam Billy Butler. I first read Clark's post and then i read Rany's... I must say that Rany voiced more of my fears. I hope he's wrong and Clark is right and this is only a decision b/t Gload and Jacobs. But the reason I feel so helpless is that this move obviously blocks KK for all of next year. This move also makes me want to punch GMDM for lying about how OBP is soooo important. Liar.

Posted by jon, October 30, 2008 11:51 AM

I am totally in favor of this lineup. He reminds me of Carlos Pena. Power hitters generally hit their stride around the age of 28. I do wish the Royals would have given Kila a chance this year, however, I see more deals happening which could open up a spot at DH for him next season. I think Butler and or Shealy will definitely be dealt this off-season.

Posted by CollininCalifornia, October 30, 2008 12:16 PM

Jon -- do you think it's wise to trade Butler? He's just 22 and still loaded with potential. I see trading him as a very short sighted move at this point.

I'm fine with trading Shealy... throw in Gload for that matter. I really do hope that Jacobs is JUST a no-risk one year stop-gap until we are sure about KK and Butler. But if GMDM is thinking he's more... i'm worried.

Posted by Gordon, October 30, 2008 1:29 PM

I do like the deal for Nunez, however, I just don't like that we now have so many 1B/DH types. Anyone aware whether Jacobs can play the OF (I'm guessing no). Hopefully this signals some other move to come. W/ Jacobs, I see no point in keeping Shealy around, and if Kiaahue can burn AAA some more, I'd put money on a Butler, Jacobs and Kiaahue three headed monster rotating DH and 1B, or at least, that's what I'd like to see happen.

Posted by Dave Farquhar, October 30, 2008 2:26 PM

Reading about Jacobs reminds me of... Steve Balboni. Big power, bigger strikeouts, low average, low OBP. A two true outcomes guy--strikeout or homer.

And looking at Jacobs, he hits lefties to the tune of .217. He's a .250 hitter against righties. I was thinking maybe he could platoon with Shealy, but Shealy also hits righties better.

He's a short term answer, but I can think of other short term answers that would likely provide better results. Why not give Ken Griffey Jr. a few months to figure out the market for him is ice cold, then ask him if he'd play first base? Wouldn't he be good for .240, 25 HR, .340 OBP? Jacobs might hit a few more homers, but Griffey would be on base more, and we know he can hit .240 in the AL.

Posted by steve y, October 30, 2008 3:24 PM

Change is good when you are not doing well, just have to hope that it is positive change. Dayton did not do well in my humble opinion with J.P. Howell for Joey Gathright, but it you have developed excess pitching and have unproven holes with position players, you hope he hits on some of these.

Posted by Benjamin Holeton, October 30, 2008 3:43 PM

JP Howell wasn't very good in KC. it was potential for potential. Yes, Tampa ended up with the better deal. But it wasn't a bad trade

#10

Posted by Brandt, October 30, 2008 3:46 PM

I love the trade for Jacobs.. He gives us a legit power threat.. He is just 28 as well. I have a strong feeling we will still get a strong bat in the offseason.. This is far fetched but what if the Royals make a splash and sign Dunn. He brings big power. What if the Royals somehow traded Guillen, maybe even to the Mets for Castillo. We would could then put Dunn in the outfield, DH, and 1st. The Royals could also deal Butler and keep Guillen. Dunn could then be DH and a little outfield and 1st. We could then also trade Gload somewhere and maybe Teahen to Cleveland for Francisco and or another Indian. This is really fantasy but what if the Royals also got Sheets. Dunn and Sheets both are unrealistic. My Dream Royals roster for next year would be..

DeJesus LF/RF
Castillo 2B
Butler DH/1B
Adam Dunn RF/LF/DH/1B
Francisco CF
Jacobs 1B/DH
Aviles SS
Gordon 3B
Olivo C

Bench- Callaspo, Shealy (could start vs. lefties at 1st), Pena (the catcher- I say trade Buck), German, Gathright (or Maier)

Rotation- 1.Greinke
2. Meche
3.Sheets/ (Oliver Perez would provide a cheaper option if they got Dunn and he would be a solid starting lefty)
4.Hochevar
5.Bannister/Davies (I would like to trade Bannister)

Bullpen
LR Bale
MR Tejada
MR Rosa
Setup Mahay
Setup Ramirez
Closer Soria

I know this is far fetched and probably the fantasy but Dayton said he wants players with the ability to win now and not just develop. This means he wants major league ready talent and given the the stadium renovations and ticket price increase I'm guessing Glass would give his approval for a big spike in payroll.

THoughts?

#11

Posted by CollininCalifornia in reply to comment from Brandt, October 30, 2008 4:36 PM

I think you may be dreaming a little too much...

Dunn will cost a whole lot of money wherever he ends up... so we'd probably have to outbid some of the better teams to get Dunn, which would mean a gigantic contract that would dwarf Guillen's. I think at this point Moore is looking for short term solutions (1-2 years) to hold us over until our farm starts producing the majority of what we need.

So, I think Dunn or Burrell are out of the question. I would really love to see Oliver Perez, but he and Sheets will probably go to a better team for less money.

Olivo probably isn't coming back for '09 and I'd imagine GMDM is looking to add a catcher thru another trade -- maybe with Texas? I don't really expect Olivo to be back or for Buck to get a whole lot of playing time next year.

Trading Guillen? Probably not going to happen unless we eat some of his contract. It's scary to think of the OBP hole that he and Jacobs would create in the middle of our lineup... but I think he'll be back nonetheless.

Sorry to rain on your parade. I like the dream team you crafted, but I just don't think it's realistic. I think we'll make a few more trades involving people like Teahen or a minor league pitcher (Pimentel?) for decent but not huge improvements like Franklin Gutierrez or Saltalamacchia.

The real talent is still a few years away in guys like Moustakas, Hosmer, Melville and even Cortes. Maybe I'm downplaying it, but I'm thinking marginal improvement this offseason on a quest for .500 next year followed by some homegrown talent finally taking shape during the 2010 season. But who knows what Moore has up his sleeve.

#12

Posted by gbewing, October 30, 2008 8:19 PM

The actual deal is fine valuewise Nunez is low return risk but it's a bad deal for the team which is what it's supposed to be all about.

Jacobs continues the wrong offensive philosophy of the organization - great another below .300 on base hacker big whopp and at a position we have very similar if not better players already. Jacobs also is a terrible defensive player and no speed- Shealy is done Ok I can come to piece with that, Killa they don't believe in- to that I say complete and utter BS and Butler now should be offered with a young pitcher (Rosa or Hochever) for a big payoff. Yes Nunez isn't going to kill us somewhere but it's one less chip to use for something that really is useful for KC- Nunez for a good on base 2b or SS -I like the Teahan for Cleveland OF deal much better because it gives us a different set of tools with much higher upside. The trade is fine in regard to value but it's redundant and poorly thought out in examining the team as a whole and where Jacobs fits.

#13

Posted by jon, October 30, 2008 11:17 PM

I think it is extremely important to look at this move as the first of many upgrades. I am a huge Billy Butler fan, however, I still think that the smartest move for the Royals organization may be to "shop" him around. If they do find a taker who is willing to pay their asking price (which should be high), GMDM should take it.

There are obvious weaknesses in the 2008 version of the Royals. One of them was addressed today. They have found a legitimate power hitting corner infielder. He may not have a high OBP, but he has some pop. I also believe that a 0.299 OBP was the low end of what the Royals can/should expect from this guy. I can see a realistic OBP of 0.325.

If Nunez is replaced by Rosa, and Rosa assumes Nunez's workload I think we could expect an additional 5 runs scored. Now with Jacobs taking over 300 AB's from Gload and 150 AB's from Butler at 1B (not saying that Butler actually looses any AB's), the Royals would net 20 additional runs.

'08 RF/RA = 745/823
'09 RF/RA = 765/828

'08 xW-L = 72-90
'09 xW-L = 75-87

This move added roughly 3 wins to the '08 version of the Royals. Now, what do the Royals have to do to get those RA's down into the mid 700's range?

#14

Posted by Hugh Longfellow, October 31, 2008 8:03 AM

This is nothing but a salary dump for the Marlins who get a borderline Triple A middle reliver for a legit power hitter. The more things change, the more things stay the same for the Marlins and their cheapskate ownership.

#15

Posted by jh, October 31, 2008 8:41 AM

I don't understand why you'd want to shop Butler around at this point, when he has yet to truly reach his potential and you'll likely have traded him for pennies on the dollar if he does blossom into the hitter that we all expect him to. He hasn't done anything yet, so no one is going to pay big for him. Trade him now and you'll get taken for a ride. What an awful idea.

#16

Posted by kcghost, October 31, 2008 9:35 AM

I would have swore I commented on this deal yesterday.

This trade borders on criminal stupidity. This, to me, will be the defining moment when GMDM showed us what he is all about and it isn't good. He traded for a one skill guy at a very crowded position and blew a lot of money in the process. Oh, and for all his talk about OBP it was just lip service.

Trading Nunez is not that bad an idea if you can get something for him, but Mike Jacobs?? The guy hit 32 HR's last year while posting a .299 OBP. That is darn near impossible. How bad is that?? Amongst guys with 26+ HR's that's dead last by 21 points. Amongst guys with just 15+ Hr's it ranks as third worst.

All we had to do was promote Kia and we would been better off and have $3M in our pockets for some other reason.

Jacobs has only hit more than 20 HR's in a season once. If he doesn't hit 30+ HR's he is a liability. He is a weak defender, can't hit for average, and isn't much of a runner. Now you are going to bring him to the AL and Royals Stadium. You don't think Kia can't match this guy??

So Kia and Shealy have been told they are just organizational fodder with no future. Butler can see a clear sign that he better start hitting like a monster or he is gone, too. That assumes GMDM doesn't unload him before spring training for a reliever to take Nunez's place.

This is a trade that would embarrass Allard Baird.

#17

Posted by Craig Brown in reply to comment from Brandt, October 31, 2008 11:39 AM

Brandt - I'm all for Dunn. His signing would counterbalance the lack of OBP from Jacobs. But I don't think the money is there... Glass may be willing to increase payroll, but I don't think it will be by much.

#18

Posted by Karte, October 31, 2008 2:44 PM

Wow! Talk about everyone being down on a trade: Rany on the Royals, Keith Law, Royal Review, and numerous others have panned this trade.

The last time I saw this much negativity towards a move the Royals made was when...GMDM signed Gil Meche to a 5-year, $55M contract. Plenty of people had to eat their words on that transaction.

Look at it this way. You can play bad-defense Billy against left-handers and bad-defense Mike against right-handers. Gload comes in for late-innings defense. In a year, when Kila is REALLY ready for MLB, then we make changes. Shealy? He better repeat his September performance in ST to get a shot.

Go Royals!

#19

Posted by CollininCalifornia in reply to comment from Karte, October 31, 2008 2:54 PM

i'm with you on how everyone similarly hammered GMDM for the Meche signing... but as with Meche, we should wait and see and them make judgements.

#20

Posted by DD, November 1, 2008 12:07 PM

Mets fan here.

I think you folks will be pleasantly surprised with Mike Jacobs.

His walks totals won't climb appreciably, but Jacobs has been playing in probably the worst park for a left handed slugger in all of baseball, losing hits to the prevailing winds in from right field. Even at Kaufman, I expect his batting average to climb, and for some of those additional hits to be home runs. Just limit his exposure to the best lefthanders and you'll have yourself a real weapon.

(ps: And while you're at it, why not see if he would like to part-time behind the plate? An occasional lefthanded power source at catcher is one hell of a weapon. Jacobs wasn't THAT bad catching in the minors.)

#21

Posted by jh, November 1, 2008 2:47 PM

I don't buy the comparisons to the Meche trade, for one big reason: Moore has shown a good eye for pitchers and a horrible one for offense. Consider this "lineup" of Moore acquisitions, with career OBPs:

C: Miguel Olivo (.275)
1B: Mike Jacobs (.318)
2B: Alberto Callaspo (.320)
SS: Tony Pena Jr. (.255)
RF: Jose Guillen (.323)
CF: Joey Gathright (.328)
LF: Ross Gload (.328)
DH: Ryan Shealy (.335)

If we could just get him to trade for Kevin Kouzmanoff, we'd have a full lineup here and it might rank as one of the worst offensive teams in MLB history. There's absolutely no reason to think that Jacobs will turn out like Meche. The fact that both acquisitions were widely panned is not any basis for comparison of the actual skills of the two players.

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