Royals Authority

Luis Mendoza embodies the pitching cliche.

Cliche #1:
The pitcher who reinvents himself.

Mendoza arrived in Kansas City just prior to the 2010 season when he was a late cut by the Texas Rangers. He opened the season in the majors and promptly did his best impersonation of an arsonist.

In the season’s third game, Brian Bannister squared off against Dontrelle Willis in a pitcher’s duel at the K. (WHAT?!?) With the Royals holding a 2-1 lead against the Tigers, Dusty Hughes started the eighth by walking Johnny Damon. That’s when Trey Hillman summoned Mendoza from the bullpen to face Magglio Ordonez, who rapped an infield single. That brought up Miguel Cabrera. After jumping ahead 0-2, Mendoza centered one and Cabrera deposited the pitch in the right field bleachers. Ballgame. (Hillman left Mendoza in for the rest of the inning and five batters in the ninth before executing a mercy pitching change. In the span of an inning, the Royals went from a one run lead to a three run deficit. While Hillman pulled a Todd Haley. I miss SABR Trey.)

Anyway, Mendoza made three more appearances for the Royals in relief, coughed up seven more runs and was exiled to Omaha for the rest of the summer. He pitched almost exclusively in the rotation in Triple-A and finished the year with a 4.10 ERA with a 4.0 SO/9 and a 2.2 BB/9. His FIP in Omaha was 4.48.

Those results led him to Omaha pitching coach Doug Henry who broke down Mendoza’s delivery. He adjusted his arm angle to release the ball on a higher plane which gave his fastball a little more sink. He also worked on developing a consistent delivery – something he apparently had difficulty accomplishing in the past.

The transformation was astounding.

Mendoza was named the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year for 2011, finishing the season with a 2.18 ERA with a 5.1 SO/9 and 3.4 BB/9. His final FIP over 144 innings was 3.80. He made 33 appearances for the Storm Chasers, with 18 starts. Included in his fine season was a no-hitter.

Once the Chasers were done with their post season, and with the Royals resting assorted starting pitchers down the stretch, Mendoza was rewarded for his Triple-A efforts with a recall to Kansas City.

Which brings us to…

Cliche #2:
September stats must be taken with a grain of salt.

Mendoza made two starts for the Royals. His first came against those nasty Tigers. Although they had clinched the Central by this point, they did open the game with a full strength lineup. Mendoza threw seven innings, surrendering two runs (one unearned) in leading the Royals to the win. He walked three, whiffed three and allowed 11 ground balls, 13 fly balls and five line drives. Mendoza retired the Tigers in order only once in his seven innings.

His next start was against a White Sox team that had clearly checked out from about August onward. In this start, he pitched into the eighth, gave up four strikeouts and two walks. He was charged with a run when Greg Holland allowed an inherited runner to score with two outs. Overall, Sox hitters hit 10 grounders, 12 fly balls and seven line drives.

This leads to…

Cliche #3:
Pitch to contact.

You can see from the two games and his minor league stats that Mendoza doesn’t miss a lot of bats. In the major league starts last September, he threw a total of 202 pitches and got a swing and a miss strike 10 times. He also surrendered 12 line drives in play. Yet he allowed no home runs and only 11 hits.

Again, we’re dealing with the small sample size here, but it’s not surprising Mendoza limited hitters to a .239 BABIP on an 89% contact rate. The results we saw from Mendoza were certainly possible (they happened, didn’t they?) yet over the course of 32 major league starts those results are unsustainable. Some will like to draw the comparison between Mendoza and Bruce Chen – another pitcher who tinkered with his delivery and who lacks the high strikeout totals. Close, but no cigar. Chen alters arm angles during the game. Mendoza doesn’t utilitze this trickery. And Chen’s contact rate over the course of the season was almost six percentage points lower. I like what Chen has done to revive his career, but with his ground ball rate combined with his contact rate, I’m not betting on him finishing with a sub 4 ERA again.

Mendoza, with the sinking action on his fastball, has the ability to get more ground balls than Chen, but misses fewer bats. If the Royals hand him over 30 starts, he won’t finish with a sub 4 ERA either. Over the last five years, 24 times has a pitcher who qualified for the ERA title whiffed 4.3 SO/9 or less. Six times, that pitcher led the league in hits allowed. Only twice did that pitcher post a sub 4 ERA. (One of them was John Lannan in 2009 whose 3.88 ERA matched his 3.88 SO/9. Paging Jayson Stark…) Two of those pitchers were on the Royals – Bannister and Mark Redman. Just to give you an idea of the quality of starters who populate this list.

I’m not assigning Mendoza a 4.3 SO/9 for a whole season based on just two starts. But his Triple-A strikeout rate since joining the Royals is 4.6 SO/9. And his career major league rate (including his two starts last September) is… 4.6 SO/9. So, the evidence is kind of strong this is who he is. Is it possible Mendoza can be a contributor? Sure. Just the numbers suggest that the odds of him being halfway decent are long.

In a perfect world Mendoza opens the year in Triple-A and is in the mix for emergency spot starter. He’s a guy who can fill in for a few starts in the back of the rotation. But if you’re counting on him to make quality starts for you throughout the season, you may as well book your reservation for the bottom half of the division.

In 2008, Jeff Francoeur went from budding superstar to a guy who hit .239/.294/.359.   From that point forward, it became something of a running joke that it was only a matter of time before Frenchy became a Kansas City Royal.

When Francoeur actually did re-unite with Dayton Moore prior to the 2011 season (signing for a modest $2.5 million coming off a .249/.300./383 season), the deal was mocked, ridiculed and generally lambasted by pretty much anyone and everyone not getting a paycheck with a big crown in the lefthand corner.   This was, as many said, just another sign that the Royals don’t really get it.   For the previous three years, Francoeur had been a cumulative +0.1 WAR.  He had never been a good on-base guy and now had become a flailing free swinger who didn’t even hit for power.   Even his once Gold Glove level fielding seemed to be in decline.

Personally, I was sort of ambivalent about the signing.   After all, who exactly was going to play in right field?   Keep in mind, Frenchy came on board before Melky Cabrera and before the Greinke trade.   All things considered and with all the young prospects not expected to be in Kansas City until late in the year at the earliest, it seemed to be a low risk deal:  albeit one with little chance of success.   Even with the goofy mutual option tagged on it was still better than Jose Guillen for three years.

Oh, Dayton Moore, you glorious…..

Francoeur, long known to be a ‘good clubhouse guy’, was actually just that.  I know that stuff gets shoved in the faces of us non-baseball insiders with such a high level of condescension that it is quickly and often disparaged, but it does matter.   Frenchy brings a big personality:  fun loving, a little (maybe a lot) nuts, a leader.   I was not a big fan of the type of leadership that a Mike Sweeney brought to the clubhouse – Sweeney may be one of the very best people in the world, but I’m not sure that translated well into a sports leadership role.  I was certainly not a fan of the grim, prickly type of leadership that Jason Kendall brought – certainly, Kendall was outstanding professional in how he went about the business of baseball, but the grumpy old man in a foxhole routine wore thin at least to those of us outside the organization.  Without question, I was definitely not a fan of the ‘big’ personality that Jose Guillen brought to the clubhouse – there’s eclectic, then there’s crazy and then there’s just being a jerk.  Jose combined them all.

Again, I have no real insight into the clubhouse, but Jeff Francoeur seemed to balance personality, fun and leadership as well as almost anyone to put on a Royal uniform in recent history.  What was nice about all that was that, for once, the guy being pumped as a great clubhouse leader was also actually, you know, playing good baseball.

Frenchy’s .285/.329/.476 line, .346 wOBA and 2.9 fWAR were right on par with any of the best years of his career and by far the best season Jeff had since 2007.   He came out of the gate hot, slumped through May and June, but rallied to have a solid second half.   Jeff held his own against right handed pitching and thrashed lefties.

Frenchy’s  walk and strikeout rates were right in line with his career (surprisingly, when Jeff was truly awful from 08-10, he posted his lowest strikeout rates and highest walk rate).   However, after swinging at pitches 57% of the time in 2009 and 2010, Francoeur swung at 54% in 2011:  basically the same as earlier in his career.    That is still a good nine percent about league average, but better than he had been doing.    After being double digit percentage points above the league average in swinging at pitches both inside and outside of the strikezone, that Francoeur reduced that to 9% above league average in both categories is a noticeable change.

That change and likely simply being in ‘the best shape of his life’ turned Francouer’s always near league average contact rate (despite swinging at, well, everything) into more good contact.    His HR/FB percentage jumped to 10.3% after languishing from three years down around seven.   Jeff’s line drive percentage was nearly 20%, driving his BABIP to .323.   That number is above league average, but not ‘crazy lucky’ above average.

There exists the real possibility that a modest change in approach at the plate in 2011 might carry forward through the life of Francoeur’s new two year/$13.75 million contract.   Jeff will never sport a good on-base percentage, but he might sustain the rediscovered slugging that deserted him in the latter portion of the last decade.

ZiPS projects a .273/.314/.437 2012 for Francoeur (OPS+102), which would be a bit disappointing, but not line-up destroying either.   In theory, should Mike Moustakas come along as is hoped, Frenchy could find himself comfortably batting between Billy Butler and Moose and hence, seeing more good pitches.   I don’t foresee Jeff having a better year than 2011, but sandwiched in the middle of a more potent offensive lineup, I am not sure it is much of a stretch to have him come closer to what he did last year than he does to the ZiPS projection.

We know this much:  Jeff Francoeur will play everyday (in 5.5 seasons, he has played in 998 games), he will be a positive influence for a young team, and he will take a cannon of an arm with him to the outfield.   We also know, that right now, Frenchy blocks no one.

I wrote about David Lough last week and we pretty much know what we have in Mitch Maier (not a whole lot).  At this point, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson are both unknowns at the major league level and Wil Myers is not ready.   Francoeur could revert to doing Angel Berroa impersonations at the plate and become a free swinging black hole in the middle of the 2012 lineup.   That would certainly keep the Royals from any dreams of contention this coming year, but it does not really harm the organizational process as a whole.

Could Dayton Moore have spent the money more wisely this off-season?  Maybe.   Maybe it gets the Royals an Edwin Jackson, but at the expense of an empty spot in the everyday lineup.   Is the 2013 portion of the contract going to be a problem?  Maybe.   The risk really is not Jeff Francoeur flopping badly in 2012, but that his money and presence in 2013 might hinder the Royals from contending.

For 2012, I don’t mind Jeff Francoeur playing rightfield everyday for the Kansas City Royals.  In fact, I actually look forward to it.

xxx

Don’t panic! It’s going to be OK.

Here’s some kind of late breaking, instant analysis of what Prince Fielder signing with Detroit means for the Royals… You’ll feel better after you read this. Guaranteed, or your money back.

Delusional Defense
Miguel Cabrera isn’t a good defensive first baseman. Once upon a time, he played third and some in the outfield. Kind of difficult to imagine these days. With that kind of versatility, you’d think he was decent with the leather. Not so. He’s been pretty much awful at whatever defensive position he’s played. First base was his best spot if only because you can hide a poor glove there. Now, he moves to third – a position he hasn’t played regularly since 2007.

Now you have Fielder, who is a worse defender than Cabrera at first. Less agile and slower, it’s not surprising that he landed in the AL because he has “Future DH” stamped on his mitt. It’s surprising that a team signed him to weaken two positions in the process.

And the Tigers also have Jhonny Peralta at short. The only shortstop worse than Peralta would be Yuni.

Last year, Detroit was around the middle of the pack in Defensive Effiency. They are now an absolute lock to finish in the bottom five.

We’ve been down this road before.
Remember when the tigers were going to shatter the AL record for runs scored? Think back to 2008 when they stole Cabrera from the Marlins. One thousand runs was the prediction. Sky’s the limit.

Yeah.

Except they scored 821 runs. Fourth best in the AL.

The Tigers aren’t going to be hurting for runs. This isn’t the Mariners or Astros. But still… Baseball has a funny way of taking our expectations and smashing them to pieces.

They’re better… But not that much better
The Tigers grabbed Fielder because they lost Victor Martinez to injury. Just estimating, but I think VMart would be worth around 3 WAR. Prince will be worth around 5 WAR. Sure, the lineup is better when you replace Martinez with Fielder. But what lineup wouldn’t benefit from Fielder? At least in 2013.

Fine. The Tigers are improved. But some of the gains they realize offensively will be returned when they take the field. They haven’t improved enough that we can say they are a stone cold lock for the Central.

Be glad it’s not the Royals
These are the kinds of contracts that hamstring a franchise. Nine years? If you believe the Tigers weren’t even involved in the Fielder sweepstakes prior to the Martinez injury, this is just a staggering overplay by the Tigers. It kind of reminds me of 1993 when Ewing Kauffman opened his checkbook to bring David Cone back to Kansas City. Kauffman knew his time was limited and he desperately wanted to bring a winner back to KC. Cone was the guy and Mr. K personally got involved and ponied up the cash. From what I understand, the Tigers owner Mike Illich is doing the same thing. He’s getting along in years and his team has two studs on the roster in their primes, so if the Tigers are going to win, now is the time. He’s going for it. Brass ones.

But there were better gambles out there… Fielder could be out of baseball before his contract is over. Odds are strong his decline will be sudden… And steep.

Although the Angels will probably trade for him in four years.

The Royals are done shopping this winter.
The Tigers were the favorites before the Fielder deal, so nothing changes on this front. Short-term, the Tigers are the team to beat. Meanwhile, the Royals have always focused on the long term. While it’s possible GMDM could have been tempted to add a free agent arm like Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt in an effort to make a run at the title, he will now be content to throw this group on the field to see how they stack up the Beasts of the Central. If they’re in the hunt this summer, he’ll make a move. Otherwise, he’ll stand pat.

Don’t lose focus.
If you thought the Royals were going to contend this year, consider this signing a gift. And a reality check. Because the Royals were going to need several things break their way for them to win the Central in 2012. Don’t get that confused with me being a pessimist, or me thinking they’re not improving. I’m not and they are. But if you’re being rational, you understand you’re looking for a 15 to 20 win improvement for the Royals to be contenders. And that’s without addressing the rotation.

Short term, it makes it difficult for the Royals to contend. That’s fine. But this is why they play the games. We have no clue what’s going to happen in 2012, or the year after or the year after. Fielder could break down, Verlander could demand a trade, Cabrera could be in jail… Meanwhile, the Royals could have added three quality starting pitchers, signed Hosmer to an extention following his MVP year and seen a zero failure rate in the next wave of The Process.

To quote my favorite mental case, Joaquin Andjuar: “Baseball can be summed up in one word: Youneverknow.”

“What the hell is going on with you?”  – A statement from me to myself.

The Kansas City Royals are budding contenders, right? I’ve been writing those words in articles and saying them aloud to friends for almost a year now. It has become second nature for me to just start rattling on about how Eric Hosmer is going to be a star and the bullpen is one of the best in baseball and they can overcome a mediocre pitching staff and blah blah blah. I can say it and convince others, but I don’t believe I’ve convinced myself.

I should be stoked for the upcoming 2012 season for all the reasons you are aware of. This should be a good team, this should be a fun team. But I can’t get excited. I’ve thus far been unable to embrace what might come. Which prompts the statement at the top of the post.

I’ve been a die-hard Royals fan since birth. I’ve lived through the 90′s and the 2000′s and the 2010′s and always retained a sense of optimism. I’ve always been the guy that people could come to and ask “Why should I like the Royals this year?”. Surprisingly, I’ve always had answers:

“Kevin Appier is one of the best pitchers in baseball.”

“They have these young guys Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles who are going to be superstars.”

“Kyle Snyder is going to be a rookie sensation!”

My enthusiasm has rarely wavered and my optimism has known no bounds. But now, suddenly on the verge of what might be something truly special, I’m hesitant. Have waves of constant losing eroded my baseball soul until there is little more than a nub remaining? Has writing, which requires objective observation made me empty? Or has the constant drive to find information and post about it just worn me out?

The truth as always is complex. I believe that my time spent analyzing baseball has begun to create a zen-like state of baseball awareness. Things just are. And for as long as I can remember baseball fandom has been one which is synonymous with losing. I’ve accepted it. I’ve almost welcomed it. I can list a number of things about losing which actually make being a baseball fan better.

1. Tickets to games are cheap

2. Tickets to games are plentiful

3. The Spring Training complex is much easier to get in and out of

4. I can’t prove it, but I think it creates better baseball writers

I’ve combined this acceptance of losing with a crash-course in baseball analysis. Knowing that there are significant elements of luck in baseball and that players value can be measured and compared has opened my eyes. Many people fight this realization. They just can’t allow the beautiful game to be reduced to 1′s and 0′s. I get it. It can leave you feeling a bit dead inside. It’s almost as if learning that Picasso traced his paintings. I disagree, but I see it. But this awareness has allowed me to objectively see the Royals for who and what they are.

With that knowledge, I should be optimistic. I know this team has flaws, but there are real objective reasons to believe they should be a contender for the playoffs.  I know this. I’ve written this. However, the intersection of my analysis, my heart and most importantly my history won’t let me process it.

“What does it mean?” – Me, again to myself.

The Royals are actually and objectively possible contenders. What am I supposed to do with that information. My experience has no way to deal with it. Getting excited has proved in the past to be an exercise in futility. Believing this is the same as the past 20 years conflicts with my analysis. So I’m stuck. I’m caught in the middle of a psychological impasse. My reaction has been to let my brain do my writing and talking, while my heart has covered my eyes, plugged my ears and screamed ” LA LA LA LA LA LA I CANT HEAR YOU LA LA LA LA”. It’s left me to keep baseball and the Royals at arm’s length for now. It has almost pushed me into apathy.

What both sides need is more information. They need games. They need to see the standings. Only once the results start to stream in can both sides be placated. For now though, both sides are standing their ground.

“Is it baseball season yet?” – Me, in unison.

- Nick Scott
Follow @brokenbatsingle

We all know that 2011 was not a vintage Joakim Soria campaign.   He blew seven saves, one more than in the two previous seasons combined.   Soria surrendered two runs or more in seven different outings in 2011:  again one more than in the two previous seasons combined.   Strikeouts were down, walks were up and home runs (1.04/9) were dramatically higher than at any time in his career.  To be fair, a home run rate that was nearly double his previous career average means that Soria gave up two more home runs than in 2008 or 2009, so let’s not read just a whole lot into that number.

 In a season that spawned high hopes for many players and saw several maligned acquisitions come through as only Dayton Moore could have imagined, Soria was one of the few dark clouds (which is kind of a funny thing to say when discussing a team that lost 90+ games…again).     The Royals’ closer’s issues were discussed by our own Craig Brown and by Jeff Zimmerman just a few weeks ago. 

Truth is, Joakim Soria had a very similar year to 2011 back in 2008.  Then, however, aided by an unsustainable .207 BABIP, Soria saved 42 games and sported a 1.60 ERA (against a 3.62 xFIP).  Fast forward to 2011, change the BABIP to .312 and you have the worst season of Joakim’s career.   Again, though, his xFIP was actually lower than in 2008 (3.38).   With a little luck and a couple less home runs and Royals fans might not have had discussion after discussion regarding their closer.

That said, as both Craig and Jeff document in the links supplied above, things were different.   Soria was throwing a cutter, especially early in the year and it simply was not an effective pitch.  Given that the cutter became Soria’s weapon of choice in lieu of his curveball from the middle of 2010 through the first half of 2011 and given how poor a pitch that cutter turned out to be, the answer to Soria’s problems might be that simple.   Ditch the cutter, give the curve another try and get back to being the Soria of old.

Of course, that is easier said than done.  The curve was a horrible pitch for Soria in 2010.  He could not throw it for strikes and could not get the swing and miss when he did.   It was actually better in 2011, but by then Joakim had moved onto the cutter and was throwing the curve half as often as he had in past years.

It is odd, but for a guy who was among the best closers in the game for three straight seasons, Soria spent much of 2011 lost; searching for answers when he probably did not need to be asking any questions in the first place.   It happens:  the classic ‘outhink yourself’ maneuver.

The burning question, of course, is was 2011 just a dip in the road or the start of a career implosion.  Baseball has seen its share of closers seemingly overnight go from dominant to awful.   Any of us who lived through the Mark Davis nightmare can attest to that.   To that end, Soria was not consistently awful in 2011.   He had stretches of outstanding effectiveness interspersed with gut wrenching implosions, so there is a lot of evidence that Soria might well be dominant once again in 2012.

Thus we come to the burning question of the off-season:  to trade Soria or not to trade Soria? 

The contract has progressed from great to merely good and is no longer the bargaining chip it used to be.   The Royals have Soria under control through the 2014 season and a vintage Soria, no matter how good Greg Holland is, looks awfully good finishing out important games in 2013 and 2014.   Provided, of course, that the Royals HAVE the vintage version of Soria those two years and not a deteriorating shell of that guy.

Let’s be clear, you are not getting an established number two starter in exchange for Joakim Soria:  there is no precedent that should make anyone think any team gives that up for a closer.   The Royals might get some organization’s version of Mike Montgomery in return, but not two of those (as Dayton Moore reportedly asked the Yankees for at some point).  That’s your return, so start there if you want to debate whether the prudent move is to trade Soria.

That statement comes off as a ‘don’t trade Soria’ argument and I am not really in that camp.  I think there is a 20% chance that Joakim Soria’s days as an elite closer are over, so there is a risk going into 2012.   The argument that a closer is an uneccesary luxury on a non-contending team holds water and likely will apply to the Royals in 2012, but hopefully not after that.

Do you leverage the risk that Soria’s value might continue to decline against the risk that a prospect you trade for washes out?   The downside for the Royals is trading Soria, who remains effective for his new team, for a player or players who do not help Kansas City win in 2013 or 2014 and find yourself a closer away from the playoffs through the bulk of Eric Hosmer’s run with the Royals.

In my opinion, the Royals should stick with Soria, at least through July:  hoping he returns to dominant form and is either helping Kansas City stay in contention or jumping his trade value to a higher level.    There are a lot of teams that expect to contend that have less than solid closer situations right now.   Come July, if Greg Holland is still lights out and the Royals are not in the race, maybe then you pull the trigger and get more than a prospect, however good, in return.

xxx

Giavotella was never a standout prospect. In their annual rankings, Baseball America runs down a list of players who have the best “tools.” Gio never made this list. Last year, he was the Royals number 18 prospect, sandwiched between Sal Perez and Louis Coleman.

“An offensive second baseman, Giovatella has proven he can turn on just about any fastball. He has a very good awareness of the strike zone, and his ability to draw walks is enhanced by his pronounced crouch in his stance.”

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus was a bit more bullish, ranking him at number nine.

“More and more scouts are sold on Giavotella’s pure hitting ability, with one saying, “He just squares everything up… velo, breaking balls… he hits everything.” He has a patient approach and a very short, quick swing with surprising strength that projects for 10-15 home runs annually.”

It’s interesting that both reports mentioned his plate discipline as a strength. Because we didn’t see that once he joined the Royals. After walking about nine percent of the time throughout his minor league career, Gio posted a 3.2% walk rate. Disturbing. Also after striking out about 10% of the time in the minors, he whiffed at a rate just above 17%. Not good.

(Of course all the proceeding major league numbers come with a ginormous caveat: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE. We’re dealing with less than 200 major league plate appearances. And his first 200 plate appearances at that. As we all know – cough – Mike Moustakas – cough – some players go through a stage where they need a little time to adjust to the better pitching. Take all of this with a grain of salt.)

So having said that, Gio whiffed a total of 32 times. From the Bill James Baseball IQ, here is a heat map illustrating where that third strike was in the zone.

Six of his 32 strikeouts were on sliders, and all of them are represented in the pitch low and away. The red in the lower third of the zone down the heart of the plate represents curves, which were the money pitch in just three of his strikeouts. Seems a little reactionary to make a judgement based on six (or three) strikeouts. I’m just pointing out potential weak spots. Something to keep in mind as we move forward. Because if we have this information, you know opposing pitchers have it as well.

There’s specualtion that Giavotella would be a candidate to hit second behind Alex Gordon next summer. That’s a tall order to fill (done surprisingly well last year by Melky Cabrera) but Giavotella has the potential to make enough contact to justify his placement as the number two. Batting in the sixth and seventh positions last year, he wasn’t asked to play small ball – Yost never had him attempt a sacrifice. And I’m certain he will hone his plate discipline, cut down on the whiffs and draw more walks.

Despite Giavotella being what we would consider a piece of The Process, the Royals have been jockying all winter to line up backups at second. How else do you explain the three million combined to bring Yuniesky Betancourt back for an encore and to retain Chris Getz? Betancourt is awful… Poor defense and he doesn’t get on base. He’s never played second, but with Alcides Escobar and his amazing technicolor glove at short, that seems his most likely position. Barring something unforseen happening to the SS Jesus. And then there’s Getz. Not as horrible as Betancourt, but given an equal number of plate appearances it could be a photo finish. (I know, I know… Getz does the little things. Hell, he led the team in GRIT last summer. Let’s stay on target… I’ll rip Getz to shreds in a post in a couple of weeks. I know you can’t wait.) Getz is a natural second baseman with decent – but limited – defense, and a bat that makes Mario Mendoza look like Babe Ruth.

The question we have to ask is why? Why bring in two guys to potentially backup second base? The answer seems fairly obvious. The Royals don’t trust Giavotella.

I have to assume this is because of his defense and questionable judgement of the strike zone once he arrived in KC. I’m loathe to use defensive metrics in this situation because of the sample size, but they weren’t kind to Giavotella last year. He didn’t pass the eye test, either. (Take that however you like. I’m near sighted.) He looked slow to react and didn’t flash what I would call ideal range – especially flagging down balls hit up the middle. He could turn the double play, though. The defensive questions have followed Gio throughout his time in the organization. The Royals challenged him to improve with the glove last winter and he did make strides. The bottom line is Gio is a short, squat dude who will never look graceful in the field. He range isn’t going to blossom overnight. He’s going to be an average to below average defender. The Royals have to decide if they can live with the defense, but will take the bat. Or if they want neither.

I sure hope the Royals aren’t losing faith based on less than two months of major league playing time. Sad thing is, I don’t trust them enough to dismiss that as a possibility.

My bold prediction is Giavotella will get off to a slow start at the plate, play average to below average defense and the Royals will ship him to Triple-A before the end of May. That’s right… I’m betting on Betancourt and/or Getz to be the Royals regular second baseman about a quarter of the way into the season. It’s just a gut feeling. I hope I’m wrong.

Gio is one of those guys with little of the upside that excites the prospect watchers, but he is someone who could develop into a solid regular. Given the options that Dayton Moore has stockpiled behind Giavotella, we certainly need to hope he reaches his full potential. And quickly.

David Lough turns 26 tomorrow and is no closer to the major leagues than he was two years ago.  In fact, he may be farther away.   He has not gotten the call for the chartered flights, nice hotels and first class service of the major leagues despite hitting .299/.356/.460 in two combined years in AAA.   Even a 2011 line of .318/.367/.482 was not enough to get a courtesy cup of coffee with the big club at the end of a long lost season.

Prior to the 2010 season, David Lough was named the 10th best prospect in the Royals’ system by Baseball America.   They described him as an average defensive centerfielder and above average at the corners.   A player with above average speed and major league average tools in other categories.   In 2011, Lough cut his strikeout rate while keeping the same walk rate AND upping his average, on-base percentage and slugging.  Still, he toiled in Omaha as Hosmer, Moustakas, Giavotella and Perez breezed in and out of town.  He played next to Lorenzo Cain, who hit a better but not dissimilar .312/.380/.497, and was anointed the club’s new centerfielder for 2012.

Lough watched the speedy Jarrod Dyson get major league time and heard Dyson’s name mentioned as a very real possibility to make the Royals in 2012.  He watched Mitch Maier, a player with virtually identical career minor league stats, spend his THIRD full major league season basically watching the other guys play.  Question:  would you rather get 113 at-bats in the majors or play everyday in AAA?

Heck, when it comes to prospects who people want to give a chance, Lough’s name falls well behind that of Clint Robinson and, at times, even Irving Falu. 

It’s funny how baseball works, isn’t it?   If David Lough was a year older than Mitch Maier, I have no doubt that he would have at least a couple hundred major league games on his resume.  There is a chance that Lough might have become that ‘David DeJesus with a little better power and a little better speed’ that I (and many others) thought he might be.

That said, and we forget this, but David DeJesus was an on-base machine in the minors.   While Lough has put up good numbers (.299/.354/.468 overall), DeJesus hit .301/.400/.464.   In AAA, David smoked the ball to the tune of .308/.406/.489 and parlayed that into a nice major league career.   Even with a miserable 2011, DeJesus carries a major league line of .284/.356/.421.   A very rough comparison of Lough vs. DeJesus in the minors makes it seem like that line is Lough’s ceiling and, assuming Cain is as good as I want him to be, that doesn’t get you a starting gig on the Kansas City Royals.

I wonder if San Diego’s Chris Denorfia is a better comp?  He hit .293/.365/.434 in the minors, .303/.362/.451 in AAA and has turned that into a .275/.342/.399 (OPS+ 104) in the majors.   Denorfia hit .271/.335/.433 in 2010 and .277/.337/.381 last year, playing half the time in Petco Park.   This is not statistical analysis, just some crude comparison shopping, but I look at Lough and his numbers and see a major league mark that looks a lot like Denorfia’s .271/.335/.433 of 2010.

That’s not bad.  Hell, we have said this a lot lately, but that gets you 140 games for this team a few years ago.  That, however, does not get you on the major league roster in 2012.  Not on a team that hopes to play Gordon-Cain-Francouer 155 times this season.   Not on a team that, rightly or wrongly, would not mind having Jarrod Dyson on their 25 man roster just to pinch run in the late innings and not on a team that has Mitch Maier who can compentently play all three outfield spots and causes no trouble at all no matter how many days in a row he sits on the bench.

Does David Lough have trade value?  Not on his own, he doesn’t, but as a throw in to top off a two for one or three for one deal, he might.  Frankly, I have little doubt that Lough could be a decent fourth outfielder for just about any team and, in the right situation, might be somebody’s David DeJesus or, at least, someone’s Matt Diaz.  Yes, I know Diaz bats righthanded, I’m talking niches here.

The thing is, I don’t see David Lough being any of the above for the Kansas City Royals.  He is not one, but two big injuries (everyone knock wood there) away from sniffing the majors this spring and, with any luck, by summer he will be staring across the outfield at a bonafide stud in Wil Myers.  A good summer by Myers and another by Brett Eibner – not to mention a slew of young ‘almost prospects’ percolating in A ball – and David Lough could be forever buried on the organizational depth chart.

Now, all that could blow apart.   Quite frankly, Billy Butler is the ONLY player in this organization who has proven he can hit major league pitching consistently from year to year.  Sure, we believe Gordon has gotten it, Hosmer will be a star, Frenchy’s in shape, Moose will hit, ditto for Giavotella and on and on.  Truth is, Lorenzo Cain might hit July 1 on pace to strike out 175 times.  Wil Myers might hit .255.   Somebody could get hurt and Ned Yost might not be able to tolerate Jarrod Dyson’s bat going backwards when it impacts a major league fastball.   As nice as Mitch Maier is and as hard as he works, will the Royals tolerate his .232/.345/.337 line on an everyday basis?

Things could go bad and that’s why deep organizations have a David Lough on their 40 man roster.   There is a decent chance that when we dive into this roster review next off-season, Lough will not be on our list.   I would kind of like to see what Lough can do in the majors – he is not without skill and some potential – but if everything goes right, his shot will not be in Kansas City.

Here’s something you don’t get to say very often:  right now, David Lough would have a better shot at making the majors with the Boston Red Sox than with the Kansas City Royals.  I have to be honest, it felt pretty good typing that.

xxx

With the arbitration filing deadline just past, it seems like a great time to take stock of where the Royals are this winter with contract commitments for the upcoming season.

That’s 14 players for a total outlay of just north of $46 million. The Royals will fill out their roster with 10 players who will make close to the major league minimum. Yeah, Hosmer’s awesome, but like everyone else, he has to put in his service time before he can get paid. The minimum salary in 2012 will be $480,000. To keep things nice and tidy, let’s just assume Hosmer, Moustakas, Duffy, et al will make $500k apiece. That adds another $5 million to the payroll, pushing the total to almost $52 million.

Wait!

That list is missing Alex Gordon. After the year he had, A1 is due a tidy raise. Because the Royals and Gordon didn’t come to an agreement on a contract before noon, central time on Tuesday, his agent Casey Close and the team exchanged one-year contract figures. Reports are Gordon asked for $5.45 million and the Royals offered $4.15 million. It’s a big gap, but this is just another step on the road to arbitration. Also, it’s worth remembering that since Dayton Moore took over as the General Manager, no Royals player has gone to see the judge. Moore doesn’t want to present a case before an arbiter. It’s an unpleasant process, so it’s understandable the GM who preaches clubhouse chemistry does his level best to avoid the messiness of arbitration.

While there have been a number of players who have filed for arbitration as a procedural during Moore’s tenure, very few of them have actually exchanged numbers. Like this year, there’s always a flurry of activity just ahead of the deadline. Here’s a list of those recent instances where the Royals and one of their players have swapped valuations along with the final compromise:

Two things of note:

1 – Nearly every time the Royals and a player submitted dollar amounts, they reached an accord close to the midway point. The art of the compromise is strong.

2 – Dayton Moore has signed three young players to long-term contracts: Joakim Soria, Zack Greinke and Billy Butler. Soria was never eligible for arbitration, but in the instances of Greinke and Butler, both sides submitted offers for a one-year deal while a multi-year contract was being negotiated. And both times the multi-year agreement was reached within days of the deadline to submit numbers.

Gordon and the Royals have been talking contract extension. However, like most of these negotiations, there’s been little incentive (meaning deadline) to get a deal done. Think of it as similar to the process we’ve gone through with guys like Bubba Starling after the draft. Without a deadline, nothing happens. Now we have reached a place where both sides have to show their hand (for a one year deal at least) expect the talks to gather a little steam.

So here’s my bold prediction: Alex Gordon signs a contract extension by this time next week. I’ll guess four years at $35 million with an option year for the club. Let’s also figure A1 will pocket just under $5 million for 2012. (Butler and Greinke both took a number just below the mid point for the start of their multi-year deals.) That puts the Royals payroll for the upcoming season in the neighborhood of close to $58 million.

The Royals topped $70 million on their Opening Day payroll in both 2009 and 2010. I have to think the money is available for GMDM to add another starter to the payroll. The flexibility extends to the future, so if he desires, Moore can look beyond the one year rentals. There are plenty of options available to GMDM. I hope he’s bold enough to take one.

After he inks Gordon to a multi-year deal.

Everett Teaford is a guy that in the past would have been penciled into the starting rotation while I hoped that he could harness his potential and help win games. Of course the past is a nightmare in baseball terms and it’s starting to look like there is hope on the horizon. In the 2012 version of the Royals Everett Teaford, who had a solid minor league career as a starting pitcher comes in as just another bullpen arm.

I’m not going to dismiss Teaford or his talents though. He was one of the most effective relief pitchers on the team in 2011. His 1.136 WHIP was only surpassed by Greg Holland while his 2.9 B/9 was matched by Holland and surpassed by Joakim Soria. His 5.7 k/9 rate was pretty pedestrian compared to the rest of the pen, but he countered that with a lowwer H/9 rate. On another team he may be considered a potential setup man. On this roster filled with bullpen arms, he’s just another guy.

Teaford brings more than a bullpen arm to the table, however. He has started 99 games in the minors and could be leaned on to start games for the Royals if he’s needed. While having a top flight #1 and #2 starter can propel a team, having depth is the next best thing. In a 162 game season, pitchers will get hurt, they will start to lose their tough and they will need to be replaced.

None of us are used to following a team in the pennant race, but it’s a different animal than a regular old losing season. Imagine this scenario: The Royals are holding a slim 1 game lead in September and are making a trip to 2nd place Detroit. Bruce Chen is scheduled to start game one but has a tweaked shoulder. These are must win games, and in the past there was nobody but scrubs waiting in the wings. This season, they could pull Teaford in to start, or Crow or someone quality from Omaha.

It’s these little things that combine to create one big thing. I don’t know if Everett Teaford can continue to pitch well for the Royals. He may spend the season in Omaha. He may never get a start. But he is a quality pitcher and one of many on the team. He’s flexible and can help the team out in a pinch. It’s something new, at least for the Royals. And who knows, he just may find himself starting one of the most important games of the season if the above scenario comes to fruition. I trust him a hell of a lot more than Eduardo Villacis. Don’t you?

Billy Butler weighs more than he should.

Billy Butler does not run very fast.  In fact, he does not run well at all.

In the past three seasons, Butler has hit into 68 double plays.

Billy Butler is a poor fielding first baseman and, at the age of just twenty-five was relegated to full time designated hitter.

For a designated hitter, Billy Butler does not hit with enough power.  Thirty-three players in the American League hit more home runs than Butler did in 2011.

But then…

Billy Butler has played in 476 games the last three years.  Over that time, Billy has piled up 546 hits and smoked 140 doubles on his way to a line of .303/.370/.474.  He has walked 193 times and, for those traditionalists out there, driven in 90 or more runs in two of the last three seasons.

For all his faults, the one undeniable truth is that Billy Butler can hit a baseball.  Coincidentally, that happens to be what designated hitters get paid to do.  In 2011, the Royals designated hitters (which is almost completely Butler) ranked third in the A.L. in slugging, second in on-base percentage, third in average and first in doubles.   If Billy Butler did everything exactly as he has for the past three years, but average 26 home runs per season instead of 18, there would be a sizable reduction in the amount of chatter regarding Billy Butler and what he can’t do or doesn’t do well enough.

Of course, whether Billy will develop more home run power has been a constant discussion almost from the moment he made his major league debut.   We have had our fair share of it on this site and some of it quite recently, so I am not going to rehash all of it.  One can certainly make a case that Butler might yet add additional power – his ground ball to fly ball ratio was the lowest of his career last season – but one can also make a case that this is who Billy Butler is going to be.  The  ZiPS projection for 2012 puts Billy at a very Butler-esque .295/.362/.462 with 41 doubles, 19 home runs and 62 walks: basically the same solid hitter he has been since 2009. 

That ‘same solid hitter’ lists the following ‘Similar Batters through Age 25′ on his Baseball Reference page in this order:  John Olerud, Kent Hrbek, Keith Hernandez, Nick Markakis and, this one ought to catch your eye, Carl Yastrzemski.  Frankly, that is a pretty solid list and none of us are going to complain if Butler finishes out his career in the same fashion as Olerud (he is one of the more underrated players in recent history – check the stats), Hrbek, Hernandez and Yaz.

Of course, the rub is that those guys, at age twenty-five, also brought considerable defensive skills (or at least decent skills in the case of Hrbek)  to the table that Butler does not.   And so, here we are again, back to the things that Billy Butler does not do well.

The question really becomes does Billy Butler have to do more than he already is.   Can the Kansas City Royals contend with Billy Butler ‘just’ batting .300/.365/.465 and giving them an fWAR of between 1.8 and 2.9?   In a lineup that features Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and hopefully a power hitting Mike Moustakas, is that enough production from the DH spot?

I have to think it is.   While Butler is not the prototypical DH (i.e. Jim Thome or David Ortiz) he might well be good enough.  While contending teams have better ‘best hitters’ than Billy Butler, they all certainly have a place for someone who can hit as Billy does somewhere in their lineup.

I don’t know, maybe you try to trade Butler for good starting pitcher (if that really is an option), but for now, I like Billy Butler somewhere in the middle of this Royals’ lineup.  I like the idea of having a player who is almost a sure thing to hit 40+ doubles and 18 home runs with a .360+ OBP. 

As we have said often this off-season, the Royals have made progress.   That Billy Butler just has to be who he is while other players take the lead is a sure sign of just that.

xxx