Royals Authority - A Kansas City Royals Blog
Lack of Command
Written by Craig Brown   
Wednesday, 10 March 2010 00:18

Tuesday’s buzzword:  Command.

As in lack of. 

That would apply to Robinson Tejeda and Kyle Davies.  Both couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat to borrow a phrase from Crash Davis. 

Tejeda faced 12 batter, walked three, and allowed four hits, including a moon shot to Jack Cust.  He also didn’t record a ground out, retiring three A’s on fly outs, two via the strikeout and one on a pickoff at first. 

Although we don’t want to go down the road of freaking out over two spring innings, we’ve been through this before with Tejeda.  When he’s on, he’s really, really good.  When he’s not… You get games like we had on Tuesday.  This is exactly the kind of start we will get from Tejeda on occasion during the regular season if he makes the rotation.  It’s extremely dangerous to hand the ball to such an erratic pitcher in the first inning.

And would it have killed him to entice just one A's batter to hit the ball on the ground?  On a gusty day, why not try and give yourself a sliver of a chance of succeeding.

Davies was just as rotten.  He faced 16 batters and allowed seven to reach - five hits and two walks.  He struck out a pair and got five ground ball outs.  And he kept the ball in the park - no small feat with the wind blowing out to right at 30 mph.  Although the elements did seem to come into play on a couple of fly balls that turned into doubles.

It is slightly insane to get bent over a handful of innings in the Cactus League.  Sure.  But in this case we’re not talking about Zack Greinke or Gil Meche working on a new pitch or tinkering with their delivery.  This isn't a couple of veterans getting in game shape.  We’re talking about two pitchers who are competing for a spot in the rotation.  Big difference.  These guys have to throw.  They don’t have the luxury of working on a new pitch or whatever.  They’re pitching for life in the majors.

Not that I'm expecting greatness - or even mediocrity - from either Davies or Tejeda in the rotation.  But I'd at least see them do something worthwhile given they're fighting for a job.

Davies insists it’s not about his stuff.  It’s his command that’s killing him.  Money quote from Davies:

“It was all about consistency and command for me, that's all it is. It's never been about stuff. If I had Greinke's command, I'd have his stats."

Holy cow, was he serious?  A couple of things are wrong with this statement.  First, Davies doesn't have Greinke's stuff, so there's no point in worrying about how Greinke's command is better.  And second, if I had Greinke's stuff and command, I'd be pitching for the Royals instead of sitting in my basement, writing about them.  (Although I probably wouldn't be pitching for the Royals.  I'd hire Boras as my agent and we'd be kicking some serious ass.  No hometown discount here.)

Davies had better see the trainer.  Delusion is apparently contagious in the Royals camp.

Today’s Hillmanism:

This is inspired by a friend of mine who has taken a large measure of delight emailing me daily pearls of wisdom from the Royals manager.  Needless to say, it hardly ever makes sense.Hillman2010

Like this gem on Aaron Crow's first outing:

"I'm glad he did what I thought he would do, but I thought he would do what he did.  That make sense?"

Today is a bonus.  You got an example of a Hillmanism and you get today’s on Davies and his lack of command...

"(Davies has) got great stuff, he typically holds his stuff very well.  But it's a matter of being more consistent in the strike zone. Kyle's really competitive -- it doesn't have anything to do with his competitiveness or have anything to do with stamina or stuff.”
Davies is competitive, but it doesn’t have anything to do with competitiveness.  Got it?
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Homegrown versus Acquired Talent
Written by Nick Scott   
Tuesday, 09 March 2010 10:27

A baseball team’s farm system is without question its most important asset. Home grown talent from a club’s minor league system is under team control for six years, which provides stability. Because players are paid close to the league minimum for the first three years, they are also cost effective. In addition, those players are usually young and near their athletic prime. So, it’s imperative for any major league team to draft and sign talented young players in order to compete. It’s even more important to smaller market ball clubs, like the Royals, since acquiring that talent on the free agent market can cost upwards of ten times more. This fact is not lost on the Royals GM Dayton Moore. He has said on multiple occasions that he wants ten to twelve home grown players on the roster.

So, I decided to take a look at how the Royals have built their rosters. Looking at every Royals team dating back to 1994, I counted just how many players were home grown versus acquired. For this exercise a player was “home grown” if he was drafted by the Royals or signed as an international free agent. But what about the player who was home grown, but left and came back via free agency? In the most technical sense, that player should be homegrown when he arrived and classified as acquired when he returned. However, it just didn’t seem right to classify guys like Joe Randa or Brent Mayne as acquired, so I gave them their own class which you can put in whatever category you like.

I also only counted the nine hitters who got the most plate appearances at each position, the five pitchers who got the most starts, the closer and the four relief pitchers with the most innings. So for the sake of this exercise, the roster is 19 players.

The following graph takes a look at the roster construction for 1994 through 2010 (projected). The axis on the left is the number of players. The purple area represents the players who were home grown but re-acquired. The green area represents players acquired via free agency or trade. The red area represents home grown pitchers and the blue represents home grown hitters.

chart1

You can see a large drop in homegrown talent exactly at the time that Moore arrived as the General Manager in 2006 and has been on the incline since. The high-water mark for homegrown players was in 1996 when the royals had 10. So for Dayton, getting to the 10-12 mark would match or surpass the highest mark in the past 15 years. Now, I know that Moore had said he wanted 10-12 on the roster, and what I have represents 19 of a potential 25 roster spots, but I highly doubt that he wants very many of those guys to be unproductive bullpen guys or bench players.

We all know that it isn’t just the raw numbers of players on a team that matter. What matters is how they produce. So I went back and used Wins Above Replacement (WAR) data for every team going back to 2002* to see where the production was coming from.

*WAR is a stat which attempts to quantify a players contribution to a team, it is defined here. I also chose 2002 because that is how far back www.fangraphs.com has WAR values.

The Position Players

The following is a chart showing the WAR totals for the position players each year. The first column is the home grown players, the second is the acquired players and the third is those guys that left but came back via free agency.

YR

Home Grown

Acquired

HG Returned

Total

2002

9.7

-2.8

3.4

10.3

2003

5.9

6.5

2.4

14.8

2004

3.5

-0.3

3.1

6.3

2005

5.5

3.2

0

8.7

2006

4.4

15

0

19.4

2007

4.6

9.5

0

14.1

2008

9.4

1.6

0

11

2009

5.5

3.4

0

8.9

Total

48.5

36.1

8.9

93.5

Now a pie chart showing what percentage of the WAR each group contributed over the course of those eight years.

chart3

So as a group the home grown hitters put up over 50% of the production for the team, and rises to 61% if you count the home grown players who came back via free agency. I really don’t know how that compares to teams across the rest of baseball, but if Moore stresses 10-12 players on the 25 man roster then I would think that a goal of 50% contributions from home grown is right in the ballpark for what he would want to achieve. As an organization, at least in the past 8 years the Royals have been at least decent at developing position players who contribute to the major league club.

The Pitchers

YEAR

Home Grown

Acquired

Total

2002

4.3

9.6

13.9

2003

6.8

7.7

14.5

2004

5.4

14.0

19.4

2005

7.8

3.7

11.5

2006

-0.3

5.3

5.0

2007

3.0

14.4

17.4

2008

6.5

14.9

21.4

2009

11.0

9.5

20.5

44.5

79.1

123.6

This is a very different looking chart from the position players. The Royals have only gotten 36% of the pitching production from home grown players and that includes Zack Greinke. I don’t think this graph is too shocking to longtime Royals fans.

chart5

There has been a serious lack of home grown pitching talent in the last decade. What this graph could also mean besides the fact that the Royals did not have a lot of pitching talent is that they didn’t really give home grown players much of a shot, instead relying on free agency. Maybe they didn’t trust the guys they had in the system and didn’t believe in them and did not promote them or got rid of them early. J.P. Howell comes to mind. He has put up 4.0 WAR for the Rays since the Royals traded him away. But I think more than anything it says a lot about the scouting and development of pitching for the Royals organization. To have so little pitching produced from your farm system is a killer. However, over Dayton Moore’s tenure the WAR contributed by home grown pitchers has been on an upward trend, Greinke being the largest contributor.

I want to show one last graph. The following shows WAR contributed each year and where it came from.

chart6

The general trend so far under the Moore regime is better teams overall with increasing production coming from home grown talent. As a reference point, the Twins in 2009 had a WAR of 39. What really amazes me is that the Royals always are able to find the equilibrium of being a bad ball club. In 2006 and 2007 the acquired talent was very productive but the home grown talent was completely anemic. In 2008 and 2009 the home grown talent was contributing, but the acquired talent didn’t produce as much as in the past.

It is still early in Dayton Moore’s tenure to truly evaluate how much of the talent which his regime brings into the system will contribute to the team. Not one player he has drafted and developed has made it to the majors yet. So whatever home grown talent that is currently contributing was acquired under Allard Baird. I have been pretty critical of Dayton Moore, but if the real way to build a ballclub is through home grown talent, then it is way too early to judge him.

Nick blogs and podcasts about the Royals at Broken Bat Single and welcomes feedback via Twitter (@brokenbatsingle) and e-mail (brokenbatsingle [AT] gmail [DOT] com)


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Injuries and Silver Linings
Written by Clark Fosler   
Monday, 08 March 2010 09:44

Well, this was not exactly the best weekend in the history of the Royals, was it?

We will start with the good news from the weekend, which you can basically boil down to more good pitching.   After Greinke's outstanding start on Friday, Gil Meche pitched a healthy and effective two innings on Saturday (albeit taking 41 pitches to get through two innings).   He was followed by a two inning-three strikeout performance from last year's first round pick, Aaron Crow.

Saturday's game also saw shutout appearances from Blake Wood, Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna and non-roster invitee Josh Rupe.  We will ignore the almost total lack of offense, for now, as we have plenty of other 'not all that positive' news to discuss.  The old baseball adage is that pitchers start out ahead of hitters, so we will just rely on that for another few games in hopes of seeing some sort of production with the bats.

Of course, it was injury news that caught all the headlines this weekend; especially since the Sunday game was rained out, taking with it a 'B' game that was going to be Joakim Soria's spring debut as well as that of Willie Bloomquist (we were all waiting for that, I'm sure) and Mike Aviles. 

Injury number one did not make a lot of news.   To make room for newly acquired Gaby Hernandez, the Royals placed reliever Henry Barrera on the 60 day disabled list.   Barrera's 2009 was washed out with Tommy John surgery and he is still in rehab mode.   Barrera can post seriously ridiculous strikeout numbers when he's on and is eligible to come off the list in early June.   All this really accomplished was to get Hernandez on the 40 man roster without having to drop anyone.

This weekend, we learned that prized left-handed prospect Danny Duffy is being shut down for the time being due to elbow stiffness.   The Royals claim he is 'medically sound' and they are just being cautious.   Other than being jaded by past history, I have no reason to question the team statement.  Still, how many times have we heard a player 'just needs a little rest' and next thing you know he's under the knife?   For now, we will simply have to hold our breath and hope we see Duffy ready to go in Northwest Arkansas this April.

While the seriousness of Duffy's injury is in question, there is no doubting the injury to 2005 second round pick, Jeff Bianchi.   After struggling with a back problem in his first two professional seasons and fighting some wrist issues in 2008, Bianchi finally broke out in 2009.   He made the 40 man roster and there was talk of him opening the season in AAA.   Scratch all that:  Bianchi is done for the season with reconstructive elbow surgery.  

The silver lining here is that Bianchi will likely be moved to the 60 man disabled list any time, which opens up a 40 man roster spot.  While that does not help the Royals with the many players on the bubble who are out of options, it does give them the ability to add a non-roster player who impresses enough to make the 25 man roster or even snag one last free agent at a bargain price without having to worry about dropping a current member of the roster.  I know, I'm reaching here for something positive, but it is 'something'.

The big news of the weekend was the broken thumb of Alex Gordon.   Instead of talking about Alex getting a Saturday start at first base, we instead have this to discuss.

Gordon broke the thumb sliding headfirst into second base (what are going to hear more on the Royals' broadcasts this year?  Broken bats or headfirst slides discussions?) and will be out three to four weeks.   During that time, Alex will not be able to swing a bat or throw, so while he may be healthy in four weeks, he will not be baseball ready. 

Here's the silver lining.  

I wrote just last week that Gordon may need a good spring training more than anyone else on this team in hopes of rebuilding his confidence.   While missing all of spring training goes against that statement, having a couple of weeks of extended spring training and a few more on a rehab assignment in Omaha might be just the ticket.   That assumes, and it is a big assumption, that the Royals don't rush Gordon back to the majors.   They have the luxury of time here and should use as much of April as possible getting Alex healthy and confident before bringing him back to the majors.

In addition, this injury gives Alberto Callaspo a regular playing spot to start the season.   I fully believe that Dayton Moore made the Teahen for Getz/Fields trade fully intent on flipping Callaspo in the off-season.   The offers, if there truly were any, did not meet expectations and hence the Royals have a crowded roster (not all bad, mind you). 

With Callaspo playing third, presumably, to open the season, that allows the Royals do showcase him and Jose Guillen in the month of April.  While it may be a longshot, it certainly cannot hurt one's ability to move either player by having both playing everyday to start the season.  

Worst case, the Royals reach the end of April with Gordon back on the roster with Callaspo and Guillen fighting for at-bats:  basically right where they started off this spring.  Best case, Guillen hits a little and Callaspo looks good at third base, increasing their marketability, however slightly.

Gordon going down is certainly not the best case scenario, but there are some minor benefits, too.   Overall, for a non-contending team like Kansas City, this is not the worst thing that could happen.  It buys them some time and flexibility in trying to improve the team.

 


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Too Good: An Early Afternoon Update
Written by Clark Fosler   
Friday, 05 March 2010 15:45

Just a quick update from this afternoon's Rangers-Royals contest....

Zack Greinke - 3 innings pitched, 1 hit allowed, 0 runs, 3 strikeouts, TWENTY-SEVEN PITCHES!

Other worthy notes:

  • DeJesus in the lineup in right, batting third.
  • Getz playing shortstop
  • Kila Ka'aihue getting the start at first base.

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You Asked For It, You Got It
Written by Clark Fosler   
Friday, 05 March 2010 09:40

We have been waiting all winter for the Royals' to take the field, and yesterday they did.   Given the 13-3 pasting they received at the hands of the Texas Rangers, maybe we were too hasty to be wishing for the off-season to end.   After taking an early 1-0, lead the Royals ended up losing the 'major league' portion of this game 6-2.   From the sixth inning on, the teams were generally AAA and AA players, but the results were no better; with the Royals falling 7-1  in that portion of the contest.

Now, some will make the case that the results of any spring training game are irrelevant.  I am not so sure about that, but I am reasonably confident that the outcome of the first spring training game is certainly not very important.  Given that last spring it became fashionable in the Royals' blogosphere to discount any mention of spring training results or statistics (I wrote a column last spring on Greinke and Meche's poor spring training numbers, which basically concluded that those numbers did not mean much of anything, AND WAS SKEWERED FOR EVEN DISCUSSING IT) I am somewhat hesitant to even bring up individual performances from yesterday, but here are some observations anyway.

The Process had a shining moment to start the game as Scott Podsednik singled, stole second and took third on the throw.   Jason Kendall then hit a ground ball to drive him in.  

 I have reconciled myself to the fact that Podsednik is going to be the Royals' lead-off hitter this year.   We can throw stats and facts at the issue, but I have yet to see a lineup come out of the musings of Hillman/Moore that does not begin with Scotty Pods.   I have also come to accept that Jason Kendall is going to be the everyday catcher.   As one of my business partners pointed out 'Did you really want to watch Olivo swing and miss breaking pitches by FEET for another summer?'.   However, I will not accept Podsednik AND Kendall at the top of the Royals' batting order.  

Jason was a heckuva a guy to have at the top of your order....six years ago, but now he has no power and his on-base ability is below average.   I also don't buy into this 'he can handle the bat' crap that we often associate with number two hitters - it simply does not come into play anymore at the two spot than anywhere else in the lineup.  

Podsednik might have a fine year and regularly use his speed to steal second, but save for the two or three times per year that the catcher throws the ball into the outfield on a Podsednik steal attempt, he is going to be on second base, not third, as he was yesterday.   Under that scenario, Jason Kendall might be the least likely member of the lineup to be able to consistently drive him in from second and that includes Yuniesky Betancourt.

I have a sick feeling that the primary memory that Trey Hillman will emerge from spring training with is that first inning run yesterday.   Now, you can say that 'there goes Royals Authority being all negative, again', and maybe you are right.   Call me on Opening Day when Kendall is the second hitter up.

Alex Gordon doubled.

In my mind, the one player who will benefit most from a good spring training is Alex Gordon.   After an injury plagued, demotion riddled season in 2009, Gordon needs to get that swagger (however unfounded it may have been in 2007 and 2008) back.  I was discouraged as he once more pulled the ball on the ground to the first basemen his first time up, but encouraged by the double.  Spring training stats may not matter, but feeling good out of spring training would be huge for Alex.

No Royals pitcher did himself any favors yesterday.

Kyle Davies was not very good, neither was Robinson Tejeda, but the guys who really hurt themselves (even if it is just spring training game number one) were Anthony Lerew and Matt Herges. 

Lerew was kind of a sleeper pick for the number five starter spot, but I did like what I saw late last year when he hung in well against Boston and New York in back to back starts.  That said, Anthony figures to get just a few chances to show what he can do in the crowded battle for the final starting spot.   Yesterday, he gave up five hits in two innings to a lineup of basically AAA hitters.  

Forty year old lefty Matt Herges might well have given up the inside track to one of the two open bullpen spots yesterday.   Pitching in the ninth inning, Herges was horrendous:  giving up three hits, a walk and four runs (albeit one of the unearned).   Given that the other lefties are Dusty Hughes and Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna, Herges still has a chance, but that was an awful outing.

Mitch Maier, Kila Ka'aihue......

A little visit here to the 'beat the dead horse' section.    Both players singled yesterday and simply reminded me that signing Brian Anderson (and maybe one of Podsednik or Ankiel) and last year's trade for Mike Jacobs were completely unnecessary.  Yes, that's right, I AM basing that on two spring training at-bats in the first game of the pre-season.  Sometimes I am just that cynical.

Now, onto bigger and better things.

A guy named Greinke pitches this afternoon and on Saturday we will see Gil Meche and Aaron Crow go back to back.  Who isn't looking forward to that?   I guess, after all, I really am glad the Royals are back on the diamond.


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Play Ball - Spring Training Edition
Written by Craig Brown   
Thursday, 04 March 2010 00:00
I’ve been in Kansas City all winter.  It’s been brutal.  Cold, snowy, sub-zero wind chills.  I hate winter.

Today winter is over.  Today, the Royals play their first game of the SPRING.

About time.http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3054/2323207446_d93bb55ed5.jpg

SABR Trey posted his opening spring lineup.  It looks like something we could see during the regular season.

LF Scott Podsednik
C Jason Kendall
1B Billy Butler
CF Rick Ankiel
RF Jose Guillen
DH Alberto Callaspo
3B Alex Gordon
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
2B Chris Getz

Don’t think I’m endorsing this lineup.  I’m most certainly not.  However, I did previously state that I think Hillman sometimes needs more trial and error to figure things out.  Granted, you would think most of these things should be fairly obvious, but I guess it’s better late than never. 

Anyway, this isn’t an especially good lineup.  Kendall should never hit above seventh.  And Guillen should lose his glove for the good of the team and just decide if he’s going to play, he’s going to DH.  And Podsednik isn’t the best leadoff hitter.

To me, it’s good news that Hillman is trotting this lineup out during the Cactus League.  It gives him an opportunity to see that it’s not really the best use of his resources. 

Pitching-wise, it will be Kyle Davies, Robinson Tejeda, Phillip Humber, Anthony Lerew and Matt Herges.  Of this group, I’m probably the most interested in seeing how Humber fares.  I don’t have especially high hopes, but it would be nice if he could pitch consistently enough that he could be a long man out of the bullpen.  I’ll also be keeping an eye on Tejeda.  Not because I think he can be a starter.  Rather, I just want to see if he can get through a couple of innings without walking more than two batters.

The Royals made a minor move yesterday, claiming Gaby Hernandez off waivers from the Red Sox.  He had been claimed by Boston just a few weeks ago after spending all of last year in Triple-A Tacoma as a starter in the Mariner organization.  He finished with a 5.23 ERA with 3.0 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 146 innings.  The K/BB ratio isn’t the best, and it’s been dropping a little too sharply since he made his professional debut as an 18 year old in 2004.

He’s been a starter for his entire career, but he could probably be a candidate for the bullpen for the Royals this year.

However, this is really just a move to create some depth.  He’ll likely remain as a starter and open the year in Omaha.  But anytime you can pick up a 24 year old pitcher who’s enjoyed even a little bit of success in the minors, you have to do it.

The temperature rose above 45 degrees this week in Kansas City and the Royals are playing ball.

Finally.
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The Kendall Plan
Written by Nick Scott   
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 10:20

The other day, we hinted of some big announcements that would be hitting this site in March.  The first comes today as we are pleased to announce that Nick Scott of Broken Bat Single will be joining Royals Authority.  Hopefully, you’re familiar with excellent work Nick has done at his own site.  The position reviews he did this winter and the corresponding heat charts was some of the best Royals analysis offered during the hot stove season.  He brings some serious analytical skills to Royals Authority and will be a great addition.  We’re pleased to have him on board.

Join us in welcoming Nick.  His debut post follows...

There has been lots of gnashing of teeth and bucket loads of digital ink spent in regards to the Jason Kendall signing.  In the past, Dayton Moore has suggested that fans are just not smart enough to understand the subtle genius behind some of his moves.  I have to say, I didn’t really believe that there was a good reason for making many of the moves.  On the surface, they made no sense.  Like most fans and members of the media, I dismissed the signing of Jason Kendall immediately.

Any guy in his mother’s basement could tell you that Kendall hasn’t hit above .250 since 2006, or that he is 36 years old, or that he hasn’t had an OPS+ over 100 since 2004.  That’s all easily looked up on the internet.  However, the Royals general manager is not some guy in his mother’s basement.  He is a highly intelligent baseball man who has to balance the sometimes conflicting ideas of making his owner more money and helping the team on the field win more games.  Not only does he have to think about the runs and RBIs a guy creates, but also how many fans he can get to fill the seats in an effort to release more cash from the tight fisted owner.

When you look at the signing of Jason Kendall through that lens, the signing makes a lot more sense. How?  Well, remember when Barry Bonds was chasing a certain home run record?  Did you see many empty seats in San Francisco that year?  Nope.  How about the day that legendary Orioles SS Cal Ripken Jr. broke Lou Gehrig’s iron man record?  The stands were packed, right?  It was a windfall for the owners of those clubs and brought in much needed resources that could have been spent to acquire talent on the free agent market.

So you are still asking:  Mr. Blog man, what are you talking about?  Well, let me tell you a story.  It’s a story about one of the oldest records in baseball, a record that has stood for over 100 years.  It’s a record that is held by a Hall of Famer named Hughie Jennings, a guy who managed Ty Cobb.  It’s a record that in its pursuit Jennings was rendered unconscious for 3 days.   It’s a record that Jason Kendall has a shot at surpassing, and it is surely the genesis behind his signing.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/5e/HughieJennings.jpgI am talking about the storied hit-by-pitch record of 287 held by Hughie Jennings.  That magical number of 287 which is forever etched in the hearts and minds of baseball fans everywhere.  Right now Jason Kendall is sitting in 5th all time with 248. The man is simply prolific at not getting out of the way of pitches coming directly at him.  Since Kendall is signed for 2 years, he only needs 20 HBP each of the next two seasons to surpass the historic mark and he has been hit with 20 or more pitches in 5 different seasons.   Now, granted Kendall isn’t getting plunked at the rate he was in the past, but he did get hit 17 times last season. I also have to imagine that when he gets close to the record, his instincts will step in and he will get back to his old ways of not avoiding baseballs coming in his direction.

Just think of the fans that will pack the stadium night after night in hopes that they will see HBP 288.  The Royals are not likely to be playoff bound in the next season or two, so every extra fan that buys a ticket in hopes of seeing number 288 will be one extra fan to help the bottom line of the ballclub.  It could be the few extra dollars that allow Dayton Moore to bring in the next Jose Guillen or Yasuhiko Yabuta to help this team compete in the future.  In exactly the same way that fans packed Giants stadium in 2007 and made it a playoff atmosphere for a team that was 20 games under .500, Kendall can bring fans back to the K.   And just like the Giants parlayed that revenue into a huge free agent signing with Barry Zito, so could the Royals.

Nick blogs and podcasts about the Royals at Broken Bat Single and welcomes feedback via Twitter (@brokenbatsingle) and e-mail (brokenbatsingle [AT] gmail [DOT] com)/


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Looking For Lefty
Written by Craig Brown   
Tuesday, 02 March 2010 00:00

With Ron Mahay, John Bale and Horacio Ramirez gone from the bullpen scene, it’s no secret the Royals are scrambling for a left-hander to pitch some relief innings.  They’ve assembled a group to compete for what’s likely to be a lone job in the pen.  It’s a thin group.

Dusty Hughes pitched well enough in a September audition, throwing 14 innings with 15 strikeouts with a 5.14 ERA.  He made 7 relief appearances (one start) and really had just one poor outing.  He’s progressed through the minors and had a 3.50 ERA in Triple-A last summer, splitting his time between the rotation and the bullpen.  He could be a swing-man for the Royals.

Another potential swing-man is Bruce Chen.  I know, I know… Do we really need to give this guy another shot?  At 33, he should be finished as a rotation candidate, but perhaps he can help out of the pen.  He’s not a power arm, but has decent control - his walk rate was 3.6 BB/9 last year which was right in line with his career rate.  The problem with Chen is, the guy doesn’t miss enough bats.  Last year the league hit .301 against him and made contact on 85% of his strikes.  His contact rate and batting average against has been climbing steadily over the last several years.  Pass.

Once upon a time, John Parrish was an effective reliever for the Orioles.  From 2003 to 2005 he appeared in 84 games throwing 119 innings with a 3.10 ERA.  That was despite walking over six batters per nine innings.  But he kept the ball in the park (0.5 HR/9) and struck out roughly 8.5 batters per nine.  The walks keep him out of high leverage situations, but he could chew up an inning or two.  Parrish missed all of 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery.

The most intriguing name bandied about is Danny Duffy.  Duffy, Baseball America’s eighth rated prospect for the Royals, has yet to pitch above high-A ball, but that hasn’t dampered enthusiasm for the young lefty.  He projects as a starter, but the Royals could break him in through the bullpen.  I’m as excited as anyone for the minor league pitching pipeline to start to produce, but I’m thinking that Duffy - who is 21 and in just his fourth professional season - needs a little more minor league seasoning.  I have no problem with putting him on the fast track, but give him some time in the high minors before bringing him to the K.

Edgar Osuna was the Royals lone Rule 5 pick last December, which probably gives him the inside track on a bullpen job.  Osuna has largely pitched as a starter and had a 3.72 ERA with a 2.33 SO/BB ratio in Double-A Mississippi last year.  He’s just 22 and in his fifth season, which puts him slightly ahead of Duffy in the experience category.  Osuna has outstanding control.  In 350 minor league innings, he’s walked just 78 batters.  In the lower levels of the minors, he simply blew hitters away, but as he’s risen through the ranks his strikeout rate has dropped.  Last year he struck out 6.9 per nine in High A ball and 5.7 per nine following his promotion to Double A. 

None of the guys the Royals have in camp profiles as a LOOGY (the left hander brought in only to face a single left handed batter).  None of them own dominating platoon splits to be counted on for that role.  That’s OK I guess, if SABR Trey can figure out how to juggle the match-ups and bring his lefty in at the proper times.  You know, Jim Thome is still in the division...

A couple of other notes:

-- The Tigers announced their pitching match-ups against the Royals for their first two games of the year.  As expected Justin Verlander will start opposite Zack Greinke on Opening Day.  They’ll be followed by Gil Meche and Max Scherzer in game number two. 

Opening Day is great for a number of reasons.  At the top of my list is it always features the top pitchers in the game.  I can’t wait for the Greinke/Verlander match-up.  Hopefully, the weather will cooperate.

-- Today is a huge day for those of us who enjoy a video game from time to time as it's the release day for MLB 10: The Show.  Speaking of which, you absolutely have to watch this footage from the game.  It starts off with a Betancourt error and features Kendall and Ankiel both striking out in a 12-1 pasting at the hands of the Rangers.


-- We’ll have info soon on the 2010 Royals Authority Annual.  You know… Issues like cost and release date.  Soon.


Read 1 Comments... >>
 
Blogging Shape and Flying Wieners
Written by Craig Brown   
Thursday, 25 February 2010 00:00

I’m in the best shape of my life.

Last year, there were times when my wrist hurt.  Some days, my fingers were stiff.  Frankly, from about July on, it was painful to type.

So this winter, I dedicated myself to getting fit.  I bought one of those hand-grip things to build strength in my wrists and I’ve been lifting tiny little weights with my fingers. 

I’m eating better, too.  I hired a nutritionist.  Did you know that french fries, fried mozerella sticks, buffalo wings and beer are bad for you?  I thought it was fuel for blogging.  Turns out it was just fuel for getting fat.  I’ve completely overhauled my diet.  Instead of eating that stuff every day, I cut it back to five days a week.  Hey, cold turkey is a bitch.

Last year, I blogged at 180.  This year, I’m going to blog at 165.  I figure that by carrying less weight, I’ll be a little faster at the keyboard.  Maybe my words per minute will go up.     Last year, I was at about 65 WPM.  Although I don’t pay attention to stats like that.  I leave that to the geeks.

I’m also getting plenty of sleep.  Building up my reserves so I can stay up late to catch the pivotal A’s-Royals tilts on the West Coast.  I can’t lie… Last year there were times I ran out of gas by the fifth inning.  This year I’m going to make sure I can go the full nine.

When I broke in five years ago, I had no idea the level of commitment this took.  As I moved up the ranks, it was all so easy… high school english, freshman comp in college… but now I’m a veteran and I know what I need to do to stay healthy and inspired for a full season.  This year is gonna be huge.

Let’s blog.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, Sluggerrr pegged a fan in the eye with a hot dog and the fan is suing?  Obviously, there are just a ton of jokes to make about this and since it’s the Royals, it’s even more hilarious.  If it’s not players shooting reporters, it’s the mascot gunning down fans. 

Let’s step back a moment and imagine how this could have occurred at other ballparks:

-- If it happened at a Yankee game, the problem would just magically go away.  No one would hear from the plaintiff ever again.

-- If it happened at a Met game, Omar Minaya would sign the mascot, slot him into the rotation in place of Oliver Perez and declare himself the winner of The Contest.

-- If it happened at a Brewer game, the item of assault would have been a bratwurst.

-- If it happened at a Phillies game, the rest of the crowd would have extracted their revenge on the mascot.  Then, their thirst for violence only partially quenched, they would have turned on the injured fan.

-- If it happened at a Dodger game, no one would have cared because Dodger Dogs are the best and it’s an honor to get maimed by one.

-- If it happened at a Red Sox game, John Henry would invite the injured person to be his guest in his private suite at Fenway for a playoff game, Theo would show him the company spreadsheets used to evaluate players and Terry Francona would let him be an honorary captain for a three game series against the Yankees.

-- If it happened at a Giants game, the fan would have been struck by sushi.

-- If it happened at a Marlins game, the hot dog would have landed in an empty seat.

-- If it happened at a Cardinal game, Tony LaRussa would have logged a protest with PETA on behalf of the fan for getting hit with a meat product.

-- If it happened at a Rays game, it would have hit a Yankee or Red Sox fan.

-- If it happened at a White Sox game, Ozzie Guillen would have called everyone involved wimps and then would have demonstrated the proper hot dog throwing technique while aiming at Kenny Williams. Yeesssssssss.

In all wiener seriousness, this sucks for the guy who got injured.  No one expects to go to a Royals game and get pegged in the face by a flying hot dog courtesy of some goof in a lion costume.  If you think about it, it’s surprising a serious accident hasn’t happened with that compressed air launcher they normally just to turn food into missiles. 

I hope the Royals do the right thing and help the guy out.  Although since this has landed in court, I wonder if we’re past the point where the Royals would do anything on their own.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Some random notes while I’m still in the best blogging shape of my life.

-If you’re not on Twitter, you’re missing some great Royals Authority tweets.  However, I’m now prepared to announce that Ozzie Guillen on Twitter is the best thing to ever happen on the internet.  Yeeessssssss.

-Greg Schaum launched his new website last week, Royals Prospects.  If there’s someone who knows more than Greg about the Royals minor league system… Let’s just say no one knows more about the Royals minor league system than Greg.  He’s already got just a ton of content.  Do yourself a favor and bookmark it.

-We'll have a couple of really cool announcements coming soon about the direction we hope to take Royals Authority for the upcoming season.  Really cool announcements.  Stuff where everyone wins.  Stay tuned...

 


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Is a Healthy Jose Guillen Just a Fly In The Ointment?
Written by Clark Fosler   
Wednesday, 24 February 2010 09:05

Jose Guillen is in camp, in shape and healthy after two off-season surgeries (neither done by Jose himself, this time). 

On the one hand, good for Jose.   He showed up ready to go, saying all the right things about helping the team and, at least on the first day, seems to be motivated to have a good year.

On the other hand, Guillen is 'not about to concede' his outfield spot and become the full-time designated hitter.   Anyone see some clubhouse outbursts down the line?

Guillen's prickly personality aside, my real concern lies in what Trey Hillman might do.

Last year, we saw several occasions where Hillman sat David DeJesus against lefties (who David hit 13 points higher against than right handers last year) in favor of Willie Bloomquist.    What is he going to do with Jose Guillen, who for all his faults is a better hitter (when healthy and right) than Willie?

Rick Ankiel was promised the centerfield job and Dayton Moore did not go out and sign Scott Podsednik to have him sit the bench.  So that leaves DeJesus on the firing line, along with Alberto Callaspo.   How long into the season will it be before the Royals trot out a lineup that does not include those two players?   Players that just happened to be and probably still are the team's second and third best hitters.

It is certainly not bad to have options and competition in spring training.   Who knows?  A market might yet open up that allows Moore to make a move involving one of the above.   Right now, however, the thought of Trey having more options to 'mix and match' mostly makes my head hurt.

Perhaps, as someone is sure to comment, this is too much worrying about something that has yet to happen.   Here's a better question, which trade would you make on say, March 20th:

  • Guillen for a mid-level (somewhere outside of an organization's top 15) prospect
  • Callaspo for an untested but near major league level position player (probably outside of an organization's top 10) and another minor prospect
  • DeJesus for a real prospect emerging from AA and another mid-level prospect from about the same level

Are any of these trade options really realistic?   I am frankly not sure, go ahead and comment on that, too.   At same time, however, assume that the deals are out there and tell me which one you would do.

 


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Final AL Central

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Minnesota 87 76 --
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Chicago
79 83 7.5
Cleveland
65 97 21.5
Kansas City
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